Core Viewpoint - President Trump is pressuring Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to lower interest rates, expressing dissatisfaction with the current monetary policy, which he believes is detrimental to the U.S. economy's competitiveness [1][3][4]. Group 1: Meeting Details - Trump and Powell met at the White House on May 29, marking their first discussion since Trump resumed office [1]. - During the meeting, Trump reiterated his belief that the Fed's decision not to lower interest rates is a significant mistake [3]. - The discussion included topics such as economic growth, employment, and inflation, but Powell did not address future monetary policy directions [6]. Group 2: Economic Context - Trump has consistently criticized the Fed's current interest rate policy, arguing that it places the U.S. at a disadvantage in global competition, particularly against China [4]. - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% during its May 7 meeting, indicating a potential continuation of this rate in the coming months [6]. - The FOMC's May meeting minutes highlighted increased uncertainty in the U.S. economic outlook due to tariffs and policy instability, with rising unemployment and inflation risks [6]. Group 3: Market Implications - Trump's ongoing pressure on Powell raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, which is crucial for maintaining economic stability [8]. - The market's reliance on the Fed's independence is significant, as political interference could lead to instability in financial markets [8].

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250530 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：特朗普关税暂时恢复，六月市场风险将加剧 海外方面，美国上诉法院允许特朗普关税政策暂时继续生效，要求政府于 6 月 9 日前回 应；白宫官员对诉讼前景信心十足，即便败诉亦有替代路径，并称关税谈判同步推进中；特 朗普上任后首次会晤鲍威尔，施压降息未果，鲍威尔坚持政策独立性。美国一季度 GDP 增 速小幅上修至-0.2%，而初请失业金人数显示就业市场有所走弱。美国 Q2 经济基本面韧劲 尚在，但六月市场波动将加剧，聚焦关税的外部谈判与内部法律博弈、美债可持续性引发的 财政担忧，以及特朗普减税法案在参议院的推进。 国内方面，在美国贸易法庭叫停特朗普关税下，国内风险资产反弹，北证 50、科创板 块、小微盘涨幅超 2%，软件、生物科技板块领涨，两市成交额回升至 1.2 万亿，而债市承 压回调，10Y、30Y 国债利率升至 1.68%、1.93%。短期内国内经济基本面延续平稳，边际变 化不大，市场关注重心仍 ...

5月29日稍晚时，美国白宫新闻秘书莱维特证实两人已经会面。她补充说："总统确实说过，他认为美联储主席 不降低利率是一个错误。" 自开启第二任期以来，特朗普多次公开施压鲍威尔，要求美联储降息，并表示自己有能力"罢免"鲍威尔。不 过，在引发金融市场大震荡后，特朗普又转而表示自己"无意"罢免鲍威尔。 特朗普会见鲍威尔 美联储5月29日在其官网发布声明称，应美国总统特朗普邀请，美联储主席鲍威尔当天赴白宫与特朗普会面， 讨论包括增长、就业和通胀在内的经济发展问题。 特朗普与鲍威尔会面了！ 当地时间5月29日，美联储发布声明表示，美联储主席鲍威尔当日在白宫与特朗普会面，讨论包括增长、就业 和通胀在内的经济发展问题。美联储称，鲍威尔并未讨论他对货币政策的预期。 声明称，鲍威尔并未讨论他对货币政策的预期，只是强调政策路径将完全取决于即将发布的经济信息及其对经 济前景的影响。 鲍威尔还向特朗普表示，他与美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的同事将依法制定货币政策，以支 持最大就业和物价稳定，并将完全基于审慎、客观和非政治性的分析作出政策决定。 当天晚些时候，美国白宫新闻秘书莱维特证实两人已经会面。莱维特表示，白宫及总统 ...

美联储戴利：美联储货币政策和美国经济处于良好状态。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-5-29 美联储态度审慎，⾦价承压 价格逻辑： 黄金价格周三北美时段延续跌势，跌破3,300美元关键心理位，主因 美联储会议纪要释放滞胀风险信号，推动美债收益率反弹并提振美 元。尽管美联储维持利率不变，但政策制定者对关税推升通胀及就业 增长放缓的担忧加剧，暗示货币政策将保持谨慎。同时，地缘政治冲 突（俄乌、中东局势）虽支撑避险需求，但美国消费者信心数据超预 期改善，叠加美债收益率回升至4.493%，削弱了黄金吸引力。 美联储5月会议纪要显示，官员因关税对经济的不确定性及潜在" 滞胀"压力（高通胀与弱增长并存）而选择观望，强调需等待政府政 策调整效果明朗。值得注意的是，此次会议早于特朗普政府将对华关 税从145%降至30%的决定。经济数据方面，美国10年期实际收益率升 至2.171%，美元指数上涨0.33%至99.89，进一步施压金价。此外， 瑞士4月自美黄金进口创2012年以来新高，中国香港4月黄金净进口同 比翻倍。市场预计美联储年内或降息45个基点，但当前强劲数据与政 策谨慎基调令短期金价承压。 展望：周度COMEX黄金 ...

五矿期货：贵金属价格表现短期将偏弱势 国信期货：风险偏好回暖与美元强势或延续金银震荡调整 光大期货：黄金多空分歧加剧短期或难以摆脱震荡整理态势 FXStreet网站：金价在多重负面因素的影响下或继续下跌 SP Angel：避险需求减弱金价承压下跌但中国购金需求仍支撑金价 【机构观点分析】 五矿期货表示，北京时间29日凌晨公布的美联储会议纪要所传递出的货币政策信息偏鹰派，与此同时， 关税与贸易风险进一步释放，上述因素对于贵金属价格形成利空因素。美联储会议纪要显示，议息会议 参会者一致认为美国经济前景的不确定性增加，当前采用谨慎的货币政策是合适的。此外，美国国际贸 易法院支持对于特朗普在所谓"解放日"宣布的关税实施永久禁令，而这意味着大部分关税都将暂停实 施。海外关税风险因素释放，美联储货币政策预期表态偏鹰派，双重利空因素下贵金属价格表现短期将 偏弱势。 国信期货表示，贸易司法博弈与美联储滞胀困局的共振，正在重塑贵金属定价逻辑。短期看，风险偏好 回暖与美元强势或延续金银震荡调整，COMEX黄金或以3250美元／盎司左右（沪金760元／克附 近）、白银或围绕32.5美元／盎司附近（沪银8100元／千克左右）成为多空 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market has shown significant distrust since Trump's election, with major indices experiencing substantial declines, but a recent agreement to pause tariffs has led to a rebound in stock prices, although the underlying crisis remains unresolved [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The Dow Jones has seen a maximum decline of over 18%, the Nasdaq over 26%, and the S&P 500 over 21%, with both the Dow and S&P entering a technical bear market [1]. - Following the agreement to suspend tariffs and reduce 91% of them, the major stock indices have begun a strong rebound, recovering most of their losses [1]. Group 2: Political Context - Trump's suspension of tariffs is viewed as a temporary measure to alleviate internal and external pressures, with his approval ratings dropping significantly since taking office [3]. - A recent poll indicated that even after the tariff agreement, Trump's approval rating fell to 42%, reflecting ongoing public skepticism about his economic performance [3]. Group 3: Economic Concerns - The liquidity crisis in the U.S. financial system persists, with a significant drop in the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreements from $2.2 trillion to under $200 billion, indicating a depletion of excess liquidity [4]. - Despite the tariff agreement, concerns about liquidity remain, with the market anticipating that the Fed may not lower interest rates in the short term due to inflation worries [4]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The Dow Jones is currently in a dense trading area, with support at the 40,830 level, while the Nasdaq shows a bullish trend with support at 20,600 [5]. - The S&P 500 has surpassed long-term moving averages but faces short-term pullback pressure, with support at 5,720 [5].

Economic Overview - The probability of a "soft landing" for the US economy has increased as trade tensions show signs of easing, leading to a decrease in recession risks [2] - The US GDP growth is expected to rebound in Q2 due to a decline in imports, with a strong labor market potentially delaying the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [2][3] - The Markit manufacturing and services PMIs for May indicate expansion, with manufacturing PMI at 52.3, the highest since February, and new orders growing at the fastest pace in over a year [2][3] Labor Market Insights - In April, non-farm employment increased by 177,000, surpassing expectations, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% [4] - The labor market exhibits structural contradictions, characterized by "strong data, weak structure," which may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [5] Federal Reserve Policy Adjustments - The Federal Reserve is adjusting its monetary policy framework to address significant changes in inflation and interest rate outlooks since the pandemic [6] - The focus of monetary policy will shift from assessing "deviations" from full employment to evaluating "shortages" in the labor market [6][7] - The Fed may consider exiting the flexible average inflation targeting framework due to its limitations in the current economic environment [7][8] Market Reactions and Asset Performance - Recent downgrades of the US credit rating and threats of increased tariffs have led to heightened market volatility, impacting the dollar and boosting gold prices [9][10] - The yield on long-term US Treasury bonds has risen above 5%, reflecting concerns over the sustainability of US debt amid rising interest expenses [10][11] - The relationship between gold prices and US fiscal deficits suggests that ongoing fiscal expansion could enhance gold's investment appeal in the long term [11]

每经编辑｜杜宇 特斯拉涨6.94%，报362.89美元，其市值一夜增加759亿美元（约合人民币5461亿元）。 | -339.340 -- | 03:59 362.840 5 | | --- | --- | | --0-00%- 03:59 362.880 | 296 | | 03:59 362.850 25 17 | | | 541 | 03:59 362.850 | | 800 | 03:59 362.850 | | 191 | 03:59 362.850 | | 870 | 03:59 362.870 | | 314.890 -7.21% | | | 21:30 04:00 | 03:59 362.870 1200 | | 分时量▼ ? 量:8538238 现手:160 额:30:98亿万 03:59362.818 | 148 | | 452 | 03:59 362.865 | | 03:59 362.860 2.35万 | | | 04:00 362.751 2.37万 | | | It if the mode of the model of more and of the below and the ...

Group 1 - The international gold market experienced significant selling pressure, with spot gold prices dropping below the critical psychological level of $3300 per ounce, reaching a low of $3390 due to a rebound in the US dollar index and easing international trade tensions [2] - Despite a slight recovery to around $3308 driven by bargain buying, market attention remains focused on international trade dynamics, US fiscal policy outlook, and Federal Reserve monetary policy [2] - Short-term gold price movements are influenced by the US dollar, interest rate expectations, and economic data, with the $3300 level being crucial for market sentiment [2] Group 2 - The gold price faced downward pressure as it tested trendline resistance multiple times without breaking, leading to a decline and breaking the support level at $3320 [4] - On the daily chart, gold prices are consolidating at high levels around $3350, with MACD indicators showing bearish pressure, and the Bollinger Band's middle line support at $3287 is critical [4] - The four-hour chart indicates a shift from a five-wave to a three-wave structure, suggesting a corrective phase, with key resistance at $3320 and potential further declines towards the $3270-$3250 range [5]