证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 发布时间：2025-05-26 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业相对指数表现 2024-05 2024-07 2024-10 2024-12 2025-02 2025-05 -24% -20% -16% -12% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《关税预期缓解，黄金或迎底部做多 时机》 - 2025.05.06 有色金属行业报告 （2025.05.19-2025.05.24） 黄金上行开始，持续关注黄金股投资机会 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 4695.15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 ...

#1 三位一体的抗压架构 安第斯山里活下来的人，可以教给我们什么？ 在商业环境充满不确定性的当下，企业常常面临各种突如其来的冲击：从全球疫情、供应链中断到技术颠覆、市场骤变。你是否想过，为什么有 的企业在经历重创后依然屹立不倒，甚至逆势成长？秘诀就在于企业所具备的组织韧性（organizational resilience）。 通俗地说，组织韧性就是企业的"抗打击能力"和"适应变革能力"—既能承受冲击迅速恢复，又能从逆境中学到经验、做出调整，在动荡中保持生 存并寻求新的发展。组织韧性研究正经历从静态视角向动态过程转变的范式转移。 传统上，学者们将韧性视为组织拥有的一种能力或特质，强调组织在面对逆境时能够恢复到原来状态的复原力; 总觉得韧性是块盾牌，企业天生 有它，就看摔一跤后能否激活它。但现在，我们可以看到研究翻了新篇：韧性不是死的，而是活的，像条河，在逆境前、中、后展现出不同的特 征。 1972年，乌拉圭空军571号航班坠毁在安第斯山脉。事故造成机毁人亡，少数幸存者陷入绝境， 艰难求生。这些生还者临时组成了一个组织，在 逆境中展现出惊人的韧性。 这一案例研究表明，极端情况下组织的韧性并非仅依靠事先具备的能力 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's large economic market, resilient industrial chain, and broad application scenarios enable it to withstand external shocks and maintain high-quality growth, making it an attractive destination for investment [1] - China's economic resilience is attributed to three main factors: the enduring and adaptable nature of Chinese civilization, the flexibility and policy elasticity of the Chinese system, and the prudent approach of the Chinese people, which avoids extremism [1] - The global economy is currently facing pressure from the U.S. protectionist policies, which also affect China, particularly through restrictions on advanced computing chips [3] Group 2 - The U.S. government's actions, such as technology blockades and trade wars, aim to limit China's development, but ultimately cannot prevent China's self-reliance and strength [3] - The U.S. has a psychological understanding of China that has evolved from neglect and denial to vilification, and eventually to a forced acceptance of China's high-quality development, leading to a strategy of "if you cannot beat them, then join them" [3] - Potential breakthrough areas for future China-U.S. cooperation include nuclear arms control, reform of the monetary system, and addressing the fentanyl crisis [4]

城市更新是推动城市高质量发展的综合性、系统性战略行动。近日，中办、国办印发《关于持续推进城 市更新行动的意见》，围绕促进城市结构优化、功能完善、文脉赓续、品质提升，打造宜居、韧性、智 慧城市，部署了8个方面主要任务，具有系统性强、为民务实、精准施策的特点。 优环境惠民生 《意见》聚焦为民、便民、安民，提出了很多务实举措。住房和城乡建设部副部长秦海翔介绍，稳妥推 进危险住房改造、推进城镇老旧小区综合整治改造、建设完整社区等举措都是为了解决好群众身边的急 难愁盼问题，创造更加安全舒适的居住条件、更加方便高效的公共服务和更加优美宜人的城市环境。 在任务安排上，《意见》部署推进好房子、好小区、好社区、好城区"四好"建设，具有很强的系统性。 其中，在小区、社区的居住环境品质提升方面，将推进城镇老旧小区整治改造、开展完整社区建设作为 重要任务。在完成"十四五"城镇老旧小区改造任务的基础上，继续重点做好小区内老化管线改造，消除 安全隐患。开展建筑物屋面、外墙、楼梯等公共部位维修，小区环境及配套设施改造建设、小区内建筑 节能改造，支持有条件的楼栋加装电梯，改善群众居住条件和生活环境。同时，持续开展完整社区建 设，因地制宜配建 ...

Group 1 - The G7 finance ministers and central bank governors concluded a three-day meeting in Canada, committing to address "excessive imbalances" in the global economy, which is perceived as a veiled criticism of China [1] - The joint statement emphasized the importance of a "fair competitive environment" and the need for coordinated action against countries that do not adhere to the same rules and lack transparency [1] - The statement also highlighted the increase in "low-value goods," suggesting potential strain on customs and tax systems [1] Group 2 - Experts noted that the G7's statement serves as a justification for the U.S. government's trade pressure on China, although there is uncertainty about whether this will lead to collective action [2] - The joint statement did not address U.S. tariffs, which have been a source of significant contention among G7 members, indicating deep divisions within the group [2] - The meeting is seen as a precursor to the upcoming G7 summit scheduled for June 15-17 in Alberta, Canada, where further discussions on these issues are expected [2]

Group 1 - The core initiative is the "Hundred Events, Ten Thousand Enterprises" program aimed at promoting the integration of large and small enterprises through innovation and collaboration in the supply chain [1][2] - The program will establish comprehensive channels for interaction between large and small enterprises, leveraging resources from intellectual property service agencies, universities, research institutions, and financial organizations [1] - Specific industry chain matching events are planned, including activities focused on artificial intelligence, large aircraft, and other sectors, scheduled for 2025 in various cities [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will collaborate with the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission to organize series of matching events between central enterprises and small businesses [2] - Large private enterprises will also be encouraged to open their innovation resources and supply chain systems to small enterprises through joint efforts with the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce [2] - Activities will include patent conversion initiatives to promote innovation through patent cooperation, and local governments are encouraged to host diverse matching events tailored to specific sectors [2]

Core Insights - The 12th Fortune Forum focused on new models of active equity investment in the A-share market, emphasizing consumer dynamics and the resilience of the Hong Kong stock market [1] - Key speakers provided forward-looking insights on investment strategies, industry allocation, and market positioning to instill confidence and vitality in the market [1] Group 1: A-share Market Insights - The A-share market is transitioning from a "stock economy" to a "new model," with Q1 2025 marking a turnaround in profit growth after four years of decline [2] - The core drivers of this reversal include low inventory levels triggering a replenishment cycle, companies operating with less burden, and a recovery in the real estate chain due to a rebound in second-hand housing [2] - Return on Equity (ROE) has significantly improved from its bottom, supported by a decrease in expense ratios offsetting operational pressures, and a recovery in asset turnover and leverage [2] - The market sentiment is expected to improve significantly due to the narrative of China's industrial transformation, including breakthroughs in AI and high-end manufacturing [2] Group 2: Consumer Sector Opportunities - The consumer sector is showing structural investment opportunities, with current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios at near ten-year lows and institutional holdings at a bottom [3] - Catalysts for a rebound in the consumer sector include a peak in household savings rates, improved income expectations, and the re-emergence of wealth effects [3] - Investment opportunities include traditional consumer leaders with stable dividends and new consumption trends such as domestic brand growth and service consumption upgrades [3] - The second half of 2025 may present a recovery window for the consumer sector due to supportive consumption policies and a favorable profit base effect [3] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Resilience - Despite facing foreign capital outflow pressures, the Hong Kong stock market shows resilience supported by continuous inflows from southbound funds and increased company buybacks [4] - The Hang Seng Index has achieved a 12% annualized return in RMB terms over the past three years, highlighting the market's value proposition [4] - A GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) strategy is recommended, focusing on high-growth sectors like consumer and technology, stable cash flow assets, and companies with low leverage and high governance standards [4][5] Group 4: Long-term Investment Strategy - The company emphasizes a fundamental approach to investment, selecting stocks based on strong earnings and favorable market conditions to achieve sustainable long-term returns [5] - The company has achieved a cumulative return of 953.86% over nearly two decades for its active equity products, positioning itself among industry leaders [5] - Continuous enhancement of professional investment capabilities is crucial for capturing certainty in investment opportunities amid global changes [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with three other departments, has initiated the "Hundred Events and Ten Thousand Enterprises" integration and connection activities for small, medium, and large enterprises by 2025, aiming to enhance collaboration and resource sharing among different enterprise sizes [1] Group 1 - The initiative aims to establish and improve channels for integration and connection among large, medium, and small enterprises [1] - It focuses on gathering resources from intellectual property service institutions, higher education institutions, research institutes, and financial institutions [1] - The program intends to create platforms for communication, showcasing, services, and connections between small and large enterprises [1] Group 2 - The initiative seeks to enrich and expand the breadth, dimensions, and depth of integration and connection [1] - It aims to promote the involvement of more small and medium enterprises in the innovation chain and supply chain of large enterprises [1] - The goal is to collaboratively respond to external risks and challenges while enhancing the resilience and security of the industrial and supply chains [1]

Core Insights - Canada Goose reported a robust financial performance for Q4 of fiscal year 2025, demonstrating resilience and strategic foresight in a complex market environment [1] - The company achieved a 7.4% year-over-year revenue growth, driven by direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels and strong performance in the Asia-Pacific region [2][4] - The brand's innovative product strategies and effective retail execution have solidified its competitive edge in the high-end functional apparel market [5][11] Revenue Growth and Market Performance - In Q4 of fiscal year 2025, Canada Goose's global revenue reached CAD 1.3484 billion, reflecting a 1.1% increase year-over-year [2] - The DTC channel saw a comparable sales growth of 6.8%, contributing significantly to overall revenue growth [2] - The Asia-Pacific region experienced a revenue increase of 15.2%, with Greater China showing a 7.9% growth, validating the effectiveness of localized strategies [4] Product Innovation and Brand Strategy - Canada Goose has focused on product innovation, launching new collections such as the Sea Mantra series and eyewear, which led to a 19% increase in global brand search volume [5] - The introduction of the Snow Goose capsule collection by creative director Haider Ackermann has enhanced brand storytelling and market presence [5] - The brand's diverse product offerings, including lightweight down jackets and accessories, have attracted a broader customer base while reinforcing its position in the functional apparel sector [5] Retail Operations and Supply Chain Efficiency - The company has optimized retail operations through enhanced customer experience and supply chain improvements, resulting in a significant increase in comparable store conversion rates [7] - Canada Goose's inventory management has shown a positive trend, with inventory decreasing by 13.75% year-over-year to CAD 384 million, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of decline [7] - The brand's high proportion of locally manufactured products has ensured supply chain stability and reduced trade risks, enhancing the high-end market experience [7] Strategic Focus for Future Growth - For fiscal year 2026, Canada Goose plans to concentrate on marketing investment, category expansion, retail business development, and operational efficiency as core strategic areas [8][9] - The brand aims to increase marketing spending as a percentage of overall revenue to enhance brand visibility and cultural relevance [8] - Canada Goose will continue to refine its product structure, focusing on core items while innovating within existing categories to meet diverse consumer needs [9] Integrated Strategic Framework - Canada Goose's four strategic pillars are interconnected, creating a dynamic cycle of demand insight, product innovation, experiential delivery, and efficiency support [11] - The brand's approach transforms high-end brand attributes into tangible consumer experiences and measurable operational efficiency, solidifying its position in the high-end market [11] - The company's financial report serves as a model for navigating market cycles, emphasizing direct consumer engagement, localized marketing, and product innovation to build resilience against external risks [11][12]

Group 1 - In April, despite a more complex international environment and increased external shocks, consumption growth showed positive signs, investment scale expanded, and import and export resilience exceeded expectations, demonstrating strong economic resilience and vitality [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in April increased by 5.1% year-on-year, with significant growth in sales of home appliances, audio-visual equipment, cultural office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment, which contributed notably to the overall retail sales growth [1] - On May 23, the A-share market experienced a rebound, with the A500 index showing stable performance, and the A500 ETF (159339) averaging a daily trading volume of 261 million yuan over the past 20 trading days, indicating high market activity [1] Group 2 - The A500 ETF (159339) tracks the A500 index, which covers 63% of total revenue and 70% of total net profit in the A-share market with less than 10% of the total number of stocks, making it a strong tool for long-term investment in China's capital market [2] - The A50 ETF (159592) tracks the A50 index, which focuses on large-cap leading stocks across various industries, benefiting from increased market concentration due to supply-side reforms, and is favored by funds during earnings disclosure periods [2] - According to Everbright Securities, despite a gradual economic recovery, the resonance of macro and micro liquidity, along with industrial upgrades, provides positive support for the market, with expectations of synchronized monetary policy easing between China and the US [2]