美联储主席鲍威尔：美联储在预测能力方面必须保持谦逊。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：没有人对利率路径的预测抱有很大信心，可以为预测中的任何利率路径提供合理的 理由。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasizes the importance of focusing on short-term predictions regarding the Fed's policy path, while acknowledging the challenges associated with long-term forecasts [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Federal Reserve Policy** - Powell suggests that short-term predictions are more reliable and should be prioritized when assessing the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory [1] - **Long-term Forecasting Challenges** - The Chairman notes that making accurate long-term predictions is considerably more difficult, indicating uncertainty in future economic conditions and policy responses [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that after the framework review, there will be considerations to enhance the economic projections summary [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is undergoing a framework review which may lead to improvements in how economic forecasts are presented [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that the forecasts of FOMC policymakers are subject to significant uncertainty, which is currently at an unusually high level [1] Group 1 - The uncertainty surrounding the FOMC's policy decisions is notably elevated, impacting the reliability of economic forecasts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent statement did not present any surprising elements, with adjustments to inflation and economic growth forecasts being largely anticipated by the market [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve raised its inflation expectations due to conservative considerations regarding the potential impact of tariffs [1] - The economic growth forecast was slightly downgraded, aligning with market expectations and not leading to a directional change [1] - The focus now shifts to the details provided by Chairman Powell during the press conference, particularly his responses and body language [1]

美联储主席鲍威尔：FOMC的预测并非一项计划。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Rapt Therapeutics (RAPT) shares have seen a 1.7% increase over the past four weeks, closing at $7.84, with analysts suggesting a potential upside of 282.7% based on a mean price target of $30 [1] Price Targets and Estimates - The average price target for RAPT ranges from a low of $8.00 to a high of $48.00, with a standard deviation of $21.04, indicating variability in analyst estimates [2] - The lowest estimate suggests a 2% increase from the current price, while the highest estimate indicates a potential upside of 512.2% [2] - Analysts' consensus on price targets is often questioned, as they may not accurately reflect future stock prices [3][7] Earnings Estimates and Analyst Agreement - Analysts are optimistic about RAPT's earnings prospects, with a consensus indicating better-than-previously estimated earnings [4][11] - Over the last 30 days, one earnings estimate has increased, leading to a 22.6% rise in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year [12] - RAPT holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimates [13] Conclusion on Price Movement - While the consensus price target may not be a reliable indicator of RAPT's potential gains, the direction implied by these targets appears to be a useful guide for investors [14]

Core Viewpoint - Nucor Corp is experiencing a rise in stock price due to a strong second-quarter profit forecast, despite a slight decline in expected earnings compared to the previous year [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Nucor expects earnings between $2.55 and $2.65 per share for the second quarter, which is a small decline from $2.68 reported in the same quarter last year, but still above analyst estimates of $2.36 per share [1]. - The stock is currently trading at $128.15, reflecting a 4.9% increase [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Nucor's stock is at its highest levels since March and has seen an approximate 8% increase since the start of 2025 [2]. - The shares are facing resistance at their 160-day trendline, which has historically limited price increases [2]. Group 3: Options Activity - There is a notable surge in call options volume, with 5,095 calls exchanged, which is four times the typical volume for this time [3]. - The June 140 call is the most popular among traders, followed by the July 130 call, indicating strong interest in upward price movement [3]. - Nucor's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) is at 38%, suggesting that traders are currently pricing in low volatility expectations [3].

Group 1 - The core focus of the market is on whether the median rate forecast from the Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates one or two rate cuts in 2025, especially as the upcoming meeting is expected to maintain current interest rates [1][2] - The dot plot's predictions are based on economic forecasts that are highly uncertain, and small changes in these predictions can significantly reshape the Federal Reserve's policy narrative [2][3] - The Federal Reserve officials recognize the limitations of the dot plot and may consider reforms to their communication tools, potentially moving away from median predictions to provide a full range of forecasts [1][4] Group 2 - The dot plot's overemphasis reflects the lack of suspense in the current meeting, but this obsession has reached an absurd level given the inherent uncertainty in the economic forecasts [2][3] - A small number of officials adjusting their predictions can lead to significant shifts in the median forecast, which can create confusion when unexpected economic results occur [3][4] - The debate over the dot plot's effectiveness centers on whether it provides transparency or leads to confusion, with some suggesting a compromise of discontinuing the dot plot while still sharing a range of predictions [5][6] Group 3 - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs, particularly those from the Trump administration, complicates the Federal Reserve's ability to make accurate predictions, as higher tariffs introduce new inflation risks [6] - The labor market appears slightly weaker than a few months ago, contributing to the challenges in maintaining confidence in rate cut predictions [6]