上篇文章里，我们讨论了中产家庭的支出结构，使得他们抗风险能力较差。本篇将分析中产家庭的收入结构的脆弱性，以及他们在极端困境下的处置方 式。基于此，我们也可以做一个风险程度的自测。 双薪，还是双锁？离不开两份工资的中产家庭 正如我们在上篇中提到的，中产父母被拖入了一场竞价大战。他们一睁眼就是把孩子送进好生活的拍卖会：房子、学前教育项目、名牌大学，都是正在叫 价的稀缺品。 于是，中产家庭的收入几乎全被投入到让孩子保持社会地位的开销里。中产父母被锁定，他们没办法主动退出职场。任何一方停工，中产门票就可能作 废，孩子的位置、父母的体面瞬间打回原形。 这就出现了一个悖论：正当越来越多女性拿到大学文凭、创下前所未有的劳动参与率时，她们的家庭财务状况却未见得比过去好多少。她们的职业成就， 只是中产家庭勉力维持现状的必需品。 1948—2024美国25—54岁女性劳动参与率变化情况（%） 这里还有一个更微妙的心理陷阱：中产家庭知道工资增加是件好事，却忽视了这笔收入的隐性成本。但这也是无奈的选择，毕竟中产阶级门票价格正在不 断上涨，一个人工作已经难以负担。 那么，古尔丹，这个代价到底是什么？ 钢索上的中产家庭，没有了财务安全网 ...

Group 1 - International crude oil prices are under pressure, with WTI trading around $66.90 per barrel, down over 2% from the previous trading day, and Brent crude futures closing at $68.64, down 2.21% [1] - Market sentiment is cautious due to concerns over global economic growth stemming from President Trump's tariff policies and the critical turning point in OPEC+ production policies [1][3] - The upcoming trade measures set to take effect on August 1 have raised investor worries about the potential suppression of global trade activity and economic growth, which could negatively impact oil demand [3] Group 2 - OPEC+ is expected to further ease voluntary production cuts in September, with eight member countries anticipated to gradually restore production capacity, indicating a potential oversupply in the global market [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's high interest rate policy is increasing borrowing and investment costs, indirectly suppressing oil demand by limiting the expansion willingness of energy-intensive industries [3][4] - The combination of high interest rates and impeded global trade growth is creating a "double pressure" scenario on oil prices, leading to a potential short-term downward risk [4]

本文系转载自 深交所互动易视频号。 本文不构成野村东方国际证券的任何投资建议、推介或宣传。野村东方国际证券没有独立核实过被转载文章的 内容，该文章中的任何观点不代表野村东方国际证券观点，野村东方国际证券不对投资者依赖本文的任何内容 而采取的行动承担任何责任。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 向上滑动阅览 本文转自深交所互动易微信视频号。 本文转载自： 深交所互动易 免责声明 ...

意大利财政部长：如果发生加密货币危机，必须考虑传染风险。 ...

本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。本报告所载 的资料、工具、意见及推测只提供给客户作参考之用。过去的表现并不代表未来 的表现，未来的回报也无法保证，投资者可能会损失本金。 在任何情况下，我们不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所引致的任何损 失负任何责任，投资者需自行承担风险。此报告中所指的投资及服务可能不适合 阁下，我们建议阁下如有任何疑问应咨询独立投资顾问。 | 标 的 | 平值期权隐 | 排 名 | 标的30天历 | 排 名 | 标的当日 | 排 名 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 含波动率 | | 史波动率 | | 真实波幅 | | | ps2509 | 3.0% | 1 | 2.7% | 2 | 3.9% | 1 | | fg509 | 2.2% | 2 | 2.1% | 5 | 2.9% | 3 | | si2509 | 2.1% | 3 | 2.1% | 4 | 2.6% | 5 | | sc2508 | 2.1% | 4 | 3.1% | 1 | 2.2% | 11 | | ag2508 | 2.0% | ...

周五（7月11日）欧盘时段，现货黄金高位震荡，美国总统特朗普宣布新的关税，加剧对贸易战的担 忧，多头再次崛起，日内金价一度站上3340美元关口，4小时仍于3280-3360区间内震荡，后市有望上探 3340-3350。 【消息速递】 摘要周五（7月11日）欧盘时段，现货黄金高位震荡，美国总统特朗普宣布新的关税，加剧对贸易战的 担忧，多头再次崛起，日内金价一度站上3340美元关口，4小时仍于3280-3360区间内震荡，后市有望上 探3340-3350。 当前金价正处微妙平衡点：地缘政治风险与美元强势形成角力。若特朗普持续升级贸易战，金价有望突 破3350美元关键阻力位；反之若美联储释放鹰派信号，可能引发短线回调。投资者需密切关注7月21日 的美加谈判最终期限，这或将成为决定黄金行情走势的下一只"黑天鹅"。 【技术分析】 日线级别上:布林带运行收窄，金价在布林带中轨附近运行，多头锋芒正胜。3350美元/盎司遇阻，3280 美元/盎司为关键支撑。MACD指标死叉收口运行绿柱收量，RSI指标超卖反弹在54-50区间运行，多头 动能偏强，金价反弹需求明显。 4小时级别上:布林带运行平缓，黄金价格触及布林带上轨后目前在 ...

"养老贷"的可行性在于其利率低于缴存养老金的回报率。经测算，若趸交9万元、领取15年，养老金的 静态测算年化回报率约为3.84%。但这种由国家社保体系福利带来的较高回报，绝大部分却以"养老 贷"利息的形式流入银行，投保人仅能获得少数，这实际上造成了社保福利的损失。此外，"养老贷"得 到当地社保部门的大力支持，但若社保资金的筹集由银行贷款提供，这既涉及合规性问题，也可能引发 道德风险。 出品：21财经客户端南财快讯工作室 从办理条件来看，"养老贷"大多要求本地户籍并持有社保卡，客户需年满59周岁至65周岁之间，贷款年 限最高可达15年且"年龄+贷款期限"不超过75岁，金额上限大多为9万元，利率则限定在3.1%至3.6%之 间。退休后，用每月领取的养老金分期偿还贷款本息。 从操作机制看，放款直达账户和自动扣款的方式，可以称为"无痛"提高养老金额。针对借款人身故后的 贷款资金处理方式，一部分银行也给出了保险等解决途径。由银行为借款人购买商业保险，借款人若身 故，由保险公司赔付(结清)剩余贷款。 据每日经济新闻报道，以年缴费6000元、总计缴费15年为例，最多可贷款9万元，未来每月可领取养老 金808.48元，在归还 ...

Core Viewpoint - Metro Supply Chain Co., Ltd. has faced significant challenges in its attempts to go public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking its third unsuccessful attempt in five years, reflecting a decline in its business performance and market confidence [1][2]. Financial Performance - From 2021 to 2023, Metro Supply Chain's total revenue decreased from 27.82 billion to 24.86 billion, with net profits fluctuating at 332 million, -471 million, and 253 million respectively, indicating instability [3]. - For the first seven months of 2024, the company reported revenue of 14.82 billion, a slight decline of 1.0% year-on-year, with operating profit halved compared to the same period in 2023 [3]. Business Segments - The company operates primarily in four segments: retail distribution solutions, food service and distribution solutions, welfare gift solutions, and wholesale goods, with retail distribution solutions accounting for approximately 59.6% of total revenue in the first seven months of 2024 [3][4]. Client Dependency - Metro Supply Chain heavily relies on the Wumart Group, with sales to its top five clients constituting 64.0% of total revenue, and sales to Wumart alone accounting for over 96% of this amount [4][5]. Financial Health - The company has a high debt-to-asset ratio, consistently above 100%, and has seen its cash reserves drop significantly, with only 5.37 billion remaining as of July 31, 2024, a decrease of 64.4% year-on-year [7][8]. - The financial costs related to bank loans and non-trade payables have consumed a significant portion of its gross profit, with interest costs accounting for 67.0% and 73.5% of financial costs in 2023 and the first half of 2024 respectively [7]. Investor Pressure - Various venture capital and private equity investors, including IDG Capital and Tencent, are under pressure to exit their investments, with a potential redemption obligation of up to 15 billion USD if the company fails to go public by June 28, 2025 [8][9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of reputation risk management in the securities industry, as highlighted by the China Securities Association's new regulations [1] - The new regulations require securities firms to implement strict reputation risk management guidelines and establish comprehensive systems for monitoring, identifying, assessing, and addressing public sentiment [1] - The association stresses the need for a dual approach of "response + handling" to quickly refute false information and verify questionable matters [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recall of over 1.2 million power banks due to safety concerns has led to significant social and economic repercussions, highlighting systemic issues in the supply chain and the burden placed on consumers and society as a whole [1][11][12]. Group 1: Recall Impact on Consumers - Consumers are facing lengthy refund processes, with some waiting in queues of over 170,000 for refunds, reminiscent of past refund issues with other brands [2][4]. - The process of returning the recalled power banks is complicated, with logistics companies refusing to accept lithium batteries, leaving many consumers unable to return their products [4][5]. - Consumers are being forced to handle hazardous waste disposal themselves, which poses additional safety risks and environmental concerns [5][7]. Group 2: Economic Losses for Companies - The estimated direct economic loss for companies like Anker due to the recall is over 140 million yuan, with significant costs associated with logistics, customer service, and waste disposal [9][10]. - Anker's recall of 710,000 power banks incurs an average cost of approximately 80 yuan per unit, which includes logistics, customer service, and waste management [10]. - The recall has led to operational disruptions, with reports of employees being laid off or put on leave due to the financial strain on companies like Romoss [10][14]. Group 3: Systemic Issues in the Supply Chain - The root cause of the recall stems from a supplier, Amperes, who allegedly substituted materials without notifying brands, leading to safety risks in the batteries [11][14]. - The recall has exposed vulnerabilities in the supply chain, including certification lapses and inadequate regulatory oversight, which have broader implications for the industry [11][12]. - The incident has resulted in a loss of consumer trust and potential long-term damage to the reputation of the entire power bank industry [14][15].