A 股 7 月走势和行业方向展望 20260629 摘要 华金证券认为 7 月市场风格将偏均衡，低估值蓝筹和估值性价比良好的 科技成长股仍有投资机会，但需关注业绩和估值优势。 近期 A 股冲高受风险缓和、政策预期改善及机构资金流入驱动，但伊以 停火的影响可能短暂，中美博弈及关税问题仍存不确定性。 六部门金融支持消费政策对市场情绪有提振，但对盈利的总体提振效应 有限，对消费细分行业有一定利好。 5 月经济数据显示分子端因素回落，出口增速下降，工业企业利润转负， 预示 A 股中报业绩可能低于预期。 7 月 A 股走势受基本面、政策、外部事件和流动性多重因素影响，历史 数据显示 7 月走势偏震荡，无明显单边趋势。 预计 2025 年 7 月 A 股基本面呈现弱修复态势，出口压力增大，地产销 售仍在回落，企业盈利承压，指数难有大幅创新高空间。 综合各项因素，预计 2025 年 7 月 A 股将呈现震荡格局，行业配置风格 偏向成长和金融板块，大小盘风格预计保持均衡。 Q&A 华金证券对 A 股市场短期及 7 月份走势的总体判断是什么？ 华金证券判断，A 股市场无论是短周期还是 7 月份，都将处于震荡趋势。主要 原因是整 ...

Core Viewpoint - The small-cap style has outperformed large and mid-cap styles in the A-share market year-to-date, with expectations for continued superiority despite potential volatility in the second half of the year [1][6]. Group 1: Analysis Framework - The analysis framework for judging A-share style rotation includes major signals such as macroeconomic direction, industrial upgrade trends, and market sentiment, with small-cap stocks favored during innovation-driven phases [2][3]. - Auxiliary signals include capital market construction direction, investor structure, valuation levels, and liquidity, which can influence the rotation between small and large-cap stocks [3][4]. Group 2: Recent Performance and Factors - Since late September, a series of policies aimed at stabilizing growth have emerged, contributing to the relative strength of small-cap stocks, particularly in sectors like AI and technology [5][6]. - The investor structure has shifted, with increased activity from individual investors, as evidenced by a rise in financing balances from approximately 1.3 trillion yuan to around 1.8 trillion yuan [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The small-cap style is expected to face increased volatility in the second half of the year but is likely to continue outperforming large-cap stocks due to favorable macroeconomic conditions and ongoing industrial trends [6]. - Current valuation and trading metrics indicate that small-cap stocks have not yet reached extreme levels, suggesting room for further performance [6].

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a rebound, leading to increased institutional expectations for the second half of the year [1] - Fund managers are optimistic about the market's performance, with active equity funds showing an average return of 7% year-to-date, outperforming passive index funds [1] - The current market environment is seen as a good opportunity for medium to long-term investments, particularly in A-shares due to their higher cost-effectiveness compared to bonds [1] Group 2 - Fund allocation strategies suggest maintaining positions unless there are significant gains or structural risks, with a focus on dividend and technology sectors [2] - The market's risk appetite is recovering, favoring small-cap stocks, while growth sectors present numerous opportunities amid technological advancements [2] - There is an emphasis on the high dividend advantage of dividend assets in a declining interest rate environment, alongside increased equity allocations by non-bank institutions [2]

□本报记者王辉 头部私募仓位高企 顺时投资权益投资总监易小斌认为，近期，部分外部因素的积极变化为A股运行提供了有利环境，但起 决定性作用的仍然是内部因素。这些因素包括：市场自2024年10月高点以来的累计调整时间已超8个 月，技术面面临突破；国内政策密集出台，直接刺激了券商、金融科技等板块爆发；市场资金面充裕， 核聚变、稳定币、固态电池等热点不断涌现，有效维系了市场人气。易小斌判断，这些内外部积极因素 的中期延续性较强，有利因素不断积聚，预计将推动行情持续发展。 融智投资基金经理夏风光从宏观周期角度分析称，下半年全球主要经济体货币政策的"潜在共振"是关键 变量，美联储重启降息进程的可能性正在增大，这将为国内货币和财政政策打开空间。夏风光表 示："流动性环境的进一步改善叠加经济回暖，有望进一步推升本轮A股的阶段性趋势行情。" 来自第三方机构私募排排网的最新监测数据显示，截至6月20日，全市场股票私募机构的平均仓位水平 为74.62%，较前一周小幅上升0.37个百分点，这一数值处于今年以来的中等偏高水平。在具体仓位上， 54.31%股票私募机构仓位处于重仓或满仓(仓位大于八成)水平，24.41%股票私募仓位处于中 ...

Meeting Information - The company will hold its first extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in 2025 on July 15, 2025, at 14:00 [1] - Shareholders can participate through on-site voting or online voting on the same date [1] - The registration date for shareholders is July 8, 2025, after the Shenzhen Stock Exchange trading ends [2] Voting Procedures - All ordinary shareholders registered with voting rights can attend the meeting and appoint proxies to vote [2] - Proposals to be voted on include extending the validity period of the 2024 A-share issuance resolution and authorizing the board to handle specific matters related to the issuance [3][10] - A special resolution requires approval from more than two-thirds of the voting rights held by attending shareholders [3] Registration Requirements - Legal representatives of corporate shareholders must present identification and relevant documents for registration [3][4] - Individual shareholders must bring their identification and shareholder account cards for registration [4] - Remote shareholders can register via mail or fax, with a deadline of July 15, 2025 [5] Online Voting - Shareholders can vote through the Shenzhen Stock Exchange trading system and the internet voting system [5][6] - Specific procedures for online voting are detailed in the attached documents [6] Additional Information - The meeting will last half a day, and attendees are responsible for their own travel and accommodation expenses [5] - Contact information for the company's securities affairs department is provided for further inquiries [5]

2025 年 06 月 29 日 A 股估值及行业中观景气跟踪周报 ——行业比较周跟踪（20250621-20250627） 本期投资提示： 证券分析师 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 haody@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 冯彧 A0230123080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 联系人 冯彧 (8621)23297818× fengyu@swsresearch.com 策 略 研 究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 比 较 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 - 一、A 股本周估值（截至 2025 年 6 月 27 日） ✓ 1）指数及板块估值比较： ✓ 中证 A 股整体 PE 为 19.2 倍，处于历史 74%分位； ✓ 上证 50 指数 PE 为 ...

证券研究报告|投资策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 29 日 [Table_Title] 全球降息空间再度打开，A 股"稳中向好"延续 [Table_Title2] 投资策略周报 [Table_Summary] ·市场回顾： 随着中东局势快速降温和海外降息预期发酵，全球股市风险偏好明显提振，美股标普 500 和纳斯达克指数均创历 史新高。A 股指数在大金融板块的带动下放量走强，沪指"三连阳"突破年内高点，市场主题投资活跃，其中军 工、非银金融、稳定币概念等领涨；A 股主要指数普涨，本周北证 50、微盘股指、创业板指、中证 2000 指数领 涨，仅红利指数下跌。商品方面，国际油价和黄金大幅回落；外汇方面，美元指数继续下行，年内跌幅已超 10%， 离岸人民币兑美元汇率升至 7.15 附近。 ·市场展望：全球降息空间再度打开，A 股"稳中向好"延续。海外方面，尽管美联储内部分歧仍较大，但随着地 缘风险降温和油价回落，市场已开启降息交易；国内方面，受益于中长期资金的持续入市，年初至今 A 股指数中 枢逐渐抬升。本周 A 股成交放量和赚钱效应抬升，投资者风险偏好明显回暖并再度打开震荡中枢上沿。 ...

（原标题：和讯投顾钱桑晨：死等股灾战法！） A 股里有个看似土里土气，实则简单有效的战法。一旦掌握，战胜 90% 的股民不在话下，尤其是那些 在股海沉浮多年却连连亏损的朋友，一定要仔细了解。 研究一下上证、创业板、深证成指等指数，不难发现，几乎每年市场都会经历一轮急速下跌，也就是令 人胆寒的小型股灾。2020 年新冠疫情爆发，股市遭受重挫；2024 年，连续 4 个月的长阴下跌，市场哀 鸿遍野；2025 年，"懂王" 搞的关税战引发全球股灾，A 股也未能幸免。这种崩盘式的行情，几乎成了 每年的 "必修课"。 再看交易的实际情况，绝大多数股民在股市中是赚不到钱的，尤其是那些缺乏交易纪律的人。即便偶尔 赚点小钱，可一旦股灾来临，往往难以幸免。赚钱时，他们总想着赚得更多，不舍得离场；亏钱时，又 心存侥幸，不愿止损，结果之前的利润全部回吐，原本就亏损的账户更是雪上加霜。 基于这两点，与其每天在股市中忙忙碌碌、频繁操作，不如采用一个简单策略 —— 死等股灾。在股灾 没来的时候，长期保持空仓，耐心等待。要知道，只要坚持等待，就一定会迎来股灾。对于那些长期亏 损的股民而言，这尤为重要。等到股灾爆发，市场经历一轮暴跌，待靴子 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar has caused significant regret among dollar holders, as the offshore RMB exchange rate has surged to a new high since November of the previous year, reaching 7.16 [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Driving RMB Appreciation - The RMB's strong performance is attributed to multiple factors, including the nearing end of the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes, which has diminished the dollar's attractiveness [5]. - China's economy has shown robust resilience, with favorable foreign trade data and a significant increase in trade surplus, leading to strong demand for currency exchange [5]. - Continuous inflow of foreign capital into the A-share market has further supported the RMB, as foreign investors convert dollars to RMB for investment [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - The People's Bank of China's subtle policy adjustments have effectively guided market sentiment, with the central parity rate of the RMB being raised multiple times, signaling stability [3]. - Market reactions have been swift, with the onshore and offshore RMB rates showing a narrowing price gap, indicating strong buying interest [3]. - Most institutions predict that the RMB will maintain its strength in the second half of the year, with a trading range expected between 7.1 and 7.2, although unforeseen events could lead to volatility [9]. Group 3: Impacts of RMB Appreciation - The appreciation of the RMB benefits outbound travelers and online shoppers, as they can save significantly on expenses when converting currency [8]. - Conversely, export-oriented companies face pressure as clients demand lower prices, leading to reduced profit margins [8].

▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） ...