投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 6 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 核心逻辑：国内动力煤价格在经历 5 月下旬的短暂企稳后，再次走弱。5 月份，山西等主产区出 现安全事故，6 月进入国家安全生产月后，产地安监和环保影响有所加大，但当前正值迎峰度夏 关键时期，预计对国内煤炭产量整体影响可控。需求方面，6 月 4 日，国家气候中心发布 2025 年 汛期全国气候趋势滚动预测，显示今夏我国降水呈现"北多南少"的特征，其中四川东北部、云 南西部等地降水较常年同期偏多，且大部地区气温偏高。不过，截至 5 月底，国内电厂煤炭消耗 仍处于年内低位运行，其中沿海 8 省电厂煤炭日耗 171.1 万吨，周环比降 16.5 万吨；内陆 17 省 电厂煤炭日耗 280.6 万吨，周环比降 35.7 万吨。库存方面，截至 6 月 5 日，环渤海 9 港煤炭总 库存 2932.3 万吨，周环比大幅去库 157.4 万吨，同比偏高 412.6 万吨。整体来看，动力煤旺季 即将开启，港口库存高位逐渐去化，但煤炭长期宽松格局暂未扭转，旺季不旺可能性依然较大， 近期煤价预计将维持低位震荡 ...

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon futures market is experiencing slight fluctuations, with a minor increase in prices, but overall supply pressure remains significant, leading to potential downward price movements in the future [1][3][7]. Market Performance - On June 10, the main contract for industrial silicon closed at 7415, up by 60 from the previous day, reflecting a 0.82% increase, although the closing price was still down by 60 compared to the previous trading day [1]. - The total trading volume for the main contract was 440,221 lots, with an open interest of 155,627 lots, and the current total open interest stands at 639,121 lots [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent price recovery in the futures market has provided some confidence to the otherwise sluggish spot market, but the overall supply situation remains loose, with factories planning to resume production, which may increase supply pressure [3][7]. - The reduction in electricity prices during the flood season is expected to weaken cost support, potentially leading to further price declines as some factories may lower prices to alleviate pressure [3][7]. Raw Material Trends - The market for raw materials such as polysilicon and organosilicon remains stable, with no significant changes observed [5]. Future Considerations - The stability of industrial silicon prices is fragile, and market participants should closely monitor several factors: 1. The progress and scale of factory resumption [7] 2. The extent of electricity price reductions during the flood season [7] 3. The sustainability of the futures market rebound [7] 4. The resilience of downstream demand in key application areas [7] 5. The actual progress of inventory digestion in both social and factory stocks [7]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 6 月 10 日 【生猪日报】出栏节奏放缓 现货略有反弹 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | 2025/6/10 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 14.13 | 13.91 | 0.22 | 山 西 | 14.03 | 13.87 | 0.16 | | 湖北（0） | 13.77 | 13.77 | 0.00 | 辽 宁 | 13.91 | 13.77 | 0.14 | | 安徽（300） | 14.24 | 14.00 | 0.24 | 吉 林 | 13.79 | 13.70 | 0.09 | | 湖南（100） | 13.74 | 13.74 | 0.00 | ...

300 400 500 600 700 800 900 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CBOT玉米主力合约收盘价（美分/蒲式耳） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -400000 -300000 -200000 -100000 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 CBOT玉米期货和期权:管理基金净多持仓（手） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 宏源期货有限公司 玉米：河南小麦托市收购启动 肖锋波（F3022345）（Z0012557) 目录 第一部分 行情回顾 基本面分析 第二部分 第三部分 未来展望 1 第一部分：行情回顾 2 数据来源：Wind、钢联、宏源期货研究所 • CBOT玉米价格震荡偏弱。截至6月9日，CBOT玉米主力合约收盘价为433美分/蒲式耳，周环比下跌1.2%。 管理基金净多持仓持续减少，截至6月3日，净多持仓-154043手，周 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 第二部分 行情研判 玉米： 美玉米种植进度加快，美玉米偏弱，中美关税降低，美玉米继续探底。中国对美 玉米回到 15%关税，配额内共计 26%关税，对美国高粱共计 22%关税，国外玉米进口利 1 / 5 锦州港平舱价 元 吨 研究员：刘大勇 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 6 月 10 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/6/10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2286 | 13 | 0.57% | 28,671 | 45.27% | 77,021 | 8.82% | | C2505 | | 2303 | 16 | 0.69% | 1,988 | -22.01% | 5,698 | 13.82% | | C2509 | | 2404 | 19 | 0.79% | ...

期货热点追踪 上市首日大涨4.5%！铸造铝合金期货为何带不动现货市场？后市价格如何演变？ 相关链接 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for May showed an increase of 139,000 jobs, slightly better than the market expectation of 130,000 [2] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, consistent with market expectations and previous values [2] - Average hourly wages increased by 3.9% year-on-year, surpassing the previous value of 3.8% and the expected 3.7%, indicating a resilient job market [2] Group 2 - Global geopolitical tensions have eased somewhat, with reduced likelihood of escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict as both sides show willingness to negotiate [3] - In the Middle East, there are positive signals regarding a potential permanent ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, and a revival of the U.S.-Iran nuclear deal [3] - The market has developed a degree of immunity to geopolitical conflicts, which has diminished the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 3 - Tariff issues remain a key factor influencing gold price movements, with significant progress made in U.S.-China tariff negotiations [4] - The initiation of a second round of talks between U.S. and Chinese leaders indicates that the most severe phase of the trade war may be over [4] - The impact of tariff factors on the gold market is gradually weakening, suggesting a potential "tail-end" market phase for gold [4] Group 4 - The U.S. dollar is expected to depreciate due to rising domestic debt and the loss of dollar credibility from tariff policies, establishing a solid foundation for a long-term bull market in gold [5] - In the short term, while geopolitical tensions are entering a negotiation phase, there is a lack of upward momentum for gold prices, and investors should be cautious of potential price corrections [5] - Technically, gold prices are expected to maintain a range adjustment between $3,200 and $3,400 in June, with a prevailing bullish trend [5]

据中国棉花信息网数据，截至5月底，全国棉花商业库存为345.9万吨，较4月末减少69.4万吨。自3月起，月度降幅 均超60万吨，去库速度处于近年同期高位。对此，刘倩楠表示，市场担忧如果按照目前的去库速度，到年度末期 棉花供应可能会偏紧。 此外，据国家统计局数据，4月份的服装、鞋帽、针纺织品类零售额为1088亿元，同比增长2.2%，处于历年同期 高位。出口方面，受美国加征高额关税影响，我国纺织服装类产品对美出口量有所下降。不过，刘倩楠指出，近 年来国内企业积极开拓其他市场，对冲了对美出口下滑的影响。 对此，中信期货资深研究员吴静雯指出，从纺织品服装消费数据看，今年出口金额及内需零售额均保持同比正增 长。从耗棉量看，国内纺纱厂持续投产，而新疆新投产纱厂多为大产能企业，这些企业凭借成本优势维持较高开 工率，新投产企业普遍满负荷生产，推动棉花刚性需求增长，这与近几个月棉花商业库存快速去化相互印证。 除了下游需求增加外，国内棉花产量也出现变化。对此，吴静雯指出，2025年新疆棉花种植面积预计增长，其他 农作物改种棉花现象较为普遍。此外，截至目前新疆整体气候条件适宜，除巴州等个别地区遭遇阶段性灾害外， 大部分地区苗情良好 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing a downward trend, with prices decreasing by 10 to 60 yuan per ton across various regions, driven by weak demand and cautious purchasing behavior from downstream enterprises [2][5]. Price Analysis - As of June 9, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1290-1420 yuan/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1350-1470 yuan/ton. In East China, light soda ash prices are 1260-1520 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash is 1340-1420 yuan/ton [2]. - The light soda ash price index on June 9 is 1272.86, down by 5.71, a decrease of 0.45%. The heavy soda ash price index is 1321.43, down by 8.57, a decrease of 0.64% [3]. Market Dynamics - The soda ash futures market shows a weak trend, with the main contract SA2509 opening at 1207 yuan/ton and closing at 1202 yuan/ton, reflecting a daily decline of 0.91%. The total open interest is 1,513,365 contracts, an increase of 117,554 contracts [5]. - The market is under pressure due to a combination of increased supply from resumed production and new capacity, alongside weak demand from the glass industry, leading to slow inventory turnover [5][6]. Future Outlook - The industry is expected to see a slight recovery in supply as some production facilities resume operations. However, demand remains limited, and companies may resort to price reductions to alleviate inventory pressure [6]. - Overall, without significant positive developments, soda ash prices are likely to continue a weak and volatile trend, with attention needed on production resumption, downstream inventory replenishment, and market sentiment [6].

8 服 热 导发 E 户网 站 100 - 100 la pa www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 ts No 180 14/1 | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | ITG国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 蜈致据日报 | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 期货从业号:F305427 | | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈一凡 | 投资咨询证号:Z0015946 | 2025/06/10 | | 指标 | | 2025/06/06 | 2025/06/09 | 涨跌值 | 行情评述 | | | 晋城无烟煤 | 950. 00 | 950. 00 | 0. 00 | | | | 内蒙动力煤 | 630. 00 | 630. 00 | 0.00 | | | TV 7AN | 川渝液化气 | 4400.00 | 4350.00 | -50. 00 | | | | 国际大然气 | 13. 31 | 12.03 | -1. 28 | | | | 太仓 | 2305.00 | 232 ...