消费支撑有限 现货震荡调整 ——国信期货生猪周报 2025年07月13日 研究所 研究所 1 周度分析与展望 目 录 2 关键数据与图表 CONTENTS 周度分析与展望 研究所 过去一周生猪现货震荡调整，因消费支撑不足，期货继续上涨，使得基差走弱，LH9-11月差结束调整再度上升。基本面来看 ，市场机构样本数据显示6月能繁母猪存栏环比小幅上升，去产能仍不顺畅；仔猪价格近日开始反弹，一方面养殖利润近日有 所恢复，刺激了育肥户补栏，另一方面有市场机构样本数据显示6月出生仔猪减少，供应阶段性缩减也可能提供了部分的助推 作用。现货来看，7月大企业出栏计划缩量，而散户肥标猪价偏高，或继续压栏提高均重，7月整体供应压力不大，但消费表 现亦缺乏亮点，8月消费预计增强，同时出栏增幅有限，预计现货震荡调整后或再度季节性走高，但受整体上行空间不大。期 货主力LH09目前较现货贴水缩小，后期跟随现货震荡偏强。基于未来供应仍在增强，较远合约仍难乐观。操作上，LH09震荡 偏多。远月等待反弹做空机会。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 3 1.生猪期货行情 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何 ...

研究所 供应过剩逻辑下 氧化铝上方受阻 淡季铝价表现较为坚挺 预计沪铝震荡 ——国信期货有色（铝产业链） 2025年7月13日 3 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 1 行情回顾 2 基本面分析 研究所 成本、利润：成本端而言，据SMM数据，截至7月10日，氧化铝完全平均成本约为2850元/吨，较7月3日小幅下降5元/吨。据 SMM数据显示，截至7月9日，中国电解铝冶炼成本约16514元/吨，较7月3日上涨44元/吨左右，主因氧化铝价格上涨带动成本 上涨，目前行业平均利润收窄至4145元/吨左右。 P 第 a 一 r 部 t 分 1 行情回顾 1.1 行情概览 研究所 宏观面：当地时间7日，美国总统特朗普宣称，将从8月1日起对来自14个国家的进口产品征收关税，同时，特朗普签署行政 令，延长所谓"对等关税"暂缓期，将实施时间从7月9日推迟到8月1日。据央视新闻客户端报道，美国总统特朗普9日宣布， 将从8月1日起对所有进口到美国的铜征收50%的关税。 现货：据SMM数据，截至7月11日，国产氧化铝现货均价为3142.39元/吨，较7月4日上涨26.64元/吨，截至7月4日，长江有色 市场铝（A00）平均 ...

据机构分析，本轮周期内，国际油价趋势偏强，虽然，本周四原油价格出现大降的局面，但是，周五原油价格降幅全涨回落，周期内，原油价格创下阶段性 新高！支撑原油涨价的逻辑，主要受市场对于原油供应偏紧的担忧较高，由于能源需求进入夏季高峰阶段，虽然，上周美国原油库存意外增加707万桶，但 是，汽油库存却大幅下降！而受本周五国际能源署消息称，全球能源供应比表面更紧张，这进一步拉动原油市场偏强运行！ 不过，市场对于原油上涨的持续性存在质疑，毕竟，美国对等关税即将全面启动，经济前景不确定性增加，而OPEC+8月日均增产达到54.8万桶，亚洲主流 经济体能源需求有下降的担忧，原油市场仍存后市下降的机会！ 2025年7月13日，今天是星期天，农历六月十九！截至今日，距离7月15日，新一轮汽柴油调价，仅剩2天时间。本轮周期的10个工作日完成80%的历程，距 离调价也仅有2个工作日。当前，周期原油均价在68.12美元/桶，油价下降幅度超搁浅线，国内油价仍处于下降范畴！ 【原油变化】据悉，上轮周期末，7月1日，国际原油市场，WTI原油价格65.11美元/桶，布伦特原油67.61美元/桶！截至本周五，7月11日，原油市场，WTI 原油单日 ...

Group 1 - The European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, stated that imposing a 30% tariff on EU exports would disrupt critical transatlantic supply chains [1] - The EU aims to reach an agreement with the US by August 1 and prioritizes negotiation as a solution [1] - The EU is prepared to take all necessary measures to protect its interests, including potential countermeasures if needed [1]

Core Insights - The training program aims to enhance the professional capabilities of cross-border e-commerce practitioners in Zaoqiang County, aligning with rural e-commerce demonstration county construction requirements [1][10] - The program combines theoretical knowledge with practical experience, focusing on the operational logic of cross-border e-commerce and the use of digital tools for supply chain optimization [3][10] Theoretical Learning - Professional instructors provided insights into cross-border e-commerce trends, platform operation logic, and overseas market research methods [3] - Key topics included B2C hot-selling categories, international logistics, and cross-border payment practicalities, with interactive Q&A sessions addressing real-world challenges faced by participants [3] Practical Observation - Participants visited the product display area and logistics center, learning about product selection strategies based on market preferences and seasonal trends [5] - The logistics segment showcased the entire process of goods handling, storage, and packaging, emphasizing overseas warehouse layout and logistics channel optimization [7] Industry Networking - The training facilitated discussions among participants and local cross-border e-commerce practitioners on brand building and overseas social media marketing [8] - Exchanges of practical experiences and collaboration opportunities provided new perspectives for participants [8] Future Outlook - The program is expected to foster talent development in cross-border e-commerce, contributing to the economic growth of Zaoqiang County and supporting local businesses in expanding internationally [10]

核心运作：五维精密协作系统 1. 智能入库——供应链第一道防线 整柜入库实现48小时拆柜清关，散货入库24小时极速上架。通过激光扫描全覆盖与30%称重抽检，配合AI体积测算技术，将入库误差率压缩至0.1%以下，为 后续环节奠定精度基础。 2. 动态仓储——空间与效率的平衡术 基于SKU热销指数动态分区，使存储密度提升50%。恒温仓、防静电仓等专业存储方案覆盖3C、奢侈品等敏感商品，货损率降低至传统仓储的1/3。 3. 智能分拣——订单履约中枢 • 零售订单：AGV机器人结合电子标签拣货，人效突破300单/小时 • 批量中转：FBA预贴标服务缩短入仓周期72小时 全球跨境电商市场正以年均18%的增速扩张（Statista 2025预测），而海外仓使用者物流时效提升67%、退货率下降40%的行业数据，昭示其已成为国际电商 的基础设施。 51 100000000000 0 5 item 200000000 1 日 l 2010 A 日日报 r HINDHO - HILLEY 日期 in RE LE BOLLER 1 t #(2) Ho a (2) ERP系统直连20余个电商平台，订单错发率低于万分之五 4. 三维盘 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the contradiction in the U.S. approach towards China, where it heavily relies on Chinese rare earths while targeting Chinese agricultural investments, which constitute only 0.7% of U.S. farmland [1][5][11] - The U.S. dependence on Chinese rare earths is critical, as 75% of global rare earth refining occurs in China, impacting key industries such as military, artificial intelligence, and electric vehicles [11][17] - The article argues that the U.S. agricultural ban is a political maneuver by Trump to divert attention from domestic issues, despite the minimal threat posed by Chinese investments in U.S. farmland [15][29][41] Group 2 - The article points out the double standards in U.S. foreign investment policies, noting that Canadian and Dutch investments in U.S. farmland are significantly higher than those from China, yet they face no scrutiny [19][23] - It emphasizes the potential economic repercussions for U.S. farmers if China retaliates by reducing soybean imports, as China accounted for 21.1% of U.S. soybean exports in 2024 [25][27] - The article suggests that U.S. restrictions on Chinese investments may inadvertently accelerate China's efforts to achieve agricultural self-sufficiency and diversify its supply chains [31][35][39]

Group 1 - Nvidia's market capitalization has surpassed $4 trillion, making it the first publicly traded company to reach this milestone, driven by the shift in AI competition from model training to practical application [9][12][15] - The company's stock price reached a historic high of $164.10 on July 10, 2025, reflecting a rapid increase from $1 trillion to $4 trillion in just two years [12][15] - Nvidia's dominance in the AI chip market is evident, with approximately 76% of the world's top 500 supercomputers utilizing its GPUs, and major tech companies relying on its high-end chips for AI model training [15][19] Group 2 - The AI application landscape is rapidly evolving, with a significant increase in AI usage among enterprises, rising from 20% in 2017 to 78% in 2024, leading to a substantial return on investment [21][22] - Companies are increasingly embedding AI into their core operations, with Microsoft reporting that 52% of enterprises are using Microsoft 365 Copilot, potentially generating an additional $25 billion in revenue by FY2026 [22] - The competition for AI talent is intensifying, as evidenced by Google's acquisition of the Windsurf team for $2.4 billion, highlighting the ongoing battle for skilled personnel in the AI sector [44][45] Group 3 - The demand for AI-driven applications is reshaping industries, with significant advancements in sectors like manufacturing and healthcare, where AI is optimizing processes and improving efficiency [26][27] - The focus of AI development is shifting from model training to inference, necessitating a robust infrastructure and energy supply to support the growing computational needs [30][31] - Major cloud providers are expected to invest $320 billion in infrastructure this year, with a significant portion directed towards Nvidia, indicating the critical role of AI services in the future [29][30]

Core Insights - Nvidia has achieved a market capitalization of $4 trillion, becoming the first company to reach this milestone, reflecting a significant shift in the AI industry from model training to practical application [2][3] - The rapid growth of Nvidia's market value from $1 trillion to $4 trillion in just two years highlights its pivotal role in the AI revolution and infrastructure [5][6] - The demand for AI capabilities has surged, with Nvidia's GPUs dominating the high-end AI chip market, as evidenced by their use in approximately 76% of the world's top 500 supercomputers [6][12] Company Performance - Nvidia's stock price reached a historic high of $164.10 on July 10, 2023, contributing to its rapid market value increase [2][3] - The company's revenue for the fiscal year 2024 is projected to exceed $120 billion, with a remarkable net profit margin of 58% [6] - Analysts predict that Nvidia's market capitalization could reach $5 trillion within the next 18 months, indicating strong future growth potential [5] AI Market Dynamics - The AI landscape is shifting towards practical applications, with a significant increase in AI usage among enterprises, rising from 20% in 2017 to 78% in 2024 [15] - Companies are seeing substantial returns on AI investments, with an average return of $3.7 for every dollar spent [15] - Major tech companies are heavily investing in AI infrastructure, with an estimated total investment of $320 billion in 2024 [24] Consumer and Industrial Applications - AI applications are rapidly integrating into daily life and industrial processes, leading to a massive demand for computational power [13][21] - In the consumer sector, AI tools like ChatGPT are gaining traction, with 225 million daily active users, while Google maintains a significant user base of 2 billion [17][18] - In industrial applications, companies like Airbus and Nike are leveraging AI for efficiency improvements, such as reducing component weight and optimizing designs [21] Future Trends - The focus of AI development is shifting from model training to inference, necessitating advancements in computational efficiency and energy consumption [22][24] - Major tech firms are exploring renewable energy solutions to support their AI operations, with significant investments in solar, wind, and nuclear energy [25] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with a potential "supplier lock-in" effect as users become accustomed to specific AI platforms, solidifying the dominance of leading companies like Nvidia [27]

Core Insights - The demand for food cold chain logistics in China is expected to reach approximately 192 million tons in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.35% [1] - The total logistics value for this sector is projected to be around 4.7 trillion yuan, also showing a year-on-year increase of 4.21% [1] - The global cold chain logistics market is estimated to be about 363.8 billion USD in 2024, with China accounting for over 20% of this market [1] Industry Overview - The development of the cold chain supply chain in China is currently in a favorable trend, with increasing overall competitiveness [1] - The backdrop of global trade and the restructuring of industrial and supply chains presents new opportunities for the cold chain sector in China [1]