Group 1: Commodity Price Trends - The World Bank's report indicates a general decline in commodity prices, predicting a 12% drop by 2025 and an additional 5% drop in 2026 [1] - Energy prices, particularly oil, are the main drivers of this decline, with Brent crude oil expected to average $64 per barrel in 2025, a 21% decrease from 2024 [1] - Coal prices are projected to fall by 27% in 2025 due to weakened demand and high inventory levels [1] Group 2: Metal and Mineral Prices - Metal and mineral prices are also on a downward trend, with copper prices expected to drop by 10% to approximately $8,200 per ton by 2025 [2] - Basic metals like aluminum, zinc, and nickel are forecasted to decline by 10% to 13% [2] - The decrease in metal prices may lower manufacturing costs but is unlikely to stimulate consumer demand [2] Group 3: Agricultural Commodity Prices - Agricultural commodity prices are generally declining, with wheat, corn, and rice expected to drop by 10.5% in 2025 due to ample supply and slowing demand [2] - Oilseed and edible oil prices are projected to decrease by 3% to 6% due to increased production and improved global inventories [2] - Prices for agricultural raw materials like cotton, rubber, and tobacco are anticipated to fall by 2% to 10% due to weak downstream demand and high inventory levels [2] Group 4: Economic Impacts of Commodity Price Declines - The decline in commodity prices will have varying impacts on different countries, helping to curb inflation and stabilize consumption in importing countries [3] - Energy and food price reductions are expected to lower the consumer price index (CPI) globally, particularly benefiting developed economies [3] - Resource-dependent economies, particularly those reliant on oil, gas, metals, and agricultural exports, will face challenges such as declining fiscal revenues and economic growth [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the United States is losing its economic dominance and is increasingly isolated on the global stage, while China is emerging as a new economic powerhouse [1][3][6] - The U.S. has a misunderstanding of China's market dynamics, believing that China is heavily reliant on the U.S. market, when in fact, only 12% of China's exports go to the U.S. [3][5] - China's economy is primarily driven by domestic consumption, with 80% of its economic activities relying on this, contrasting with the U.S. where 60% of the population struggles for basic living standards [5] Group 2 - The international position of the U.S. is becoming increasingly isolated, with former allies like Japan and South Korea pushing back against U.S. hegemony and aligning more with China [6] - China controls the global rare earth supply chain, which is critical for modern technology, posing a national security risk for the U.S. if tensions continue [8] - The trade war represents a pivotal moment for China, which is prepared to fight back and solidify its position as a global economic leader, regardless of the outcome [10][11]

巴西财政部副部长：全球经济是影响巴西的传导渠道。 ...

5月17日-18日 2025清华五道口全球金融论坛 于深圳盛大召开 汇聚国内外金融界 领袖、学者及行业精英 浓缩思维干货 定位思维坐标 主题三：全球经济碎片化的挑战 主题四：粤港澳大湾区建设与发展 这两场的嘉宾金句干货已打包完毕 快查收↓↓↓ 主题讨论三 全球经济碎片化的挑战 张晓燕 清华大学五道口金融学院 副院长、讲席教授 海拉特・克里姆别托夫 哈萨克斯坦前副总理 哈萨克斯坦央行前行长 鲍里斯・武伊契奇 克罗地亚国家银行行长 欧阳卫民 中国金融学会副会长 国家开发银行原行长 鲁里埃尔・鲁比尼 纽约大学斯特恩商学院荣休教授 主题讨论四 粤港澳大湾区建设与发展 张伟 清华大学五道口金融学院院长助理 时卫干 深圳市委金融委员会办公室常务副主任 市委金融工作委员会常务副书记 市地方金融管理局局长 陈维民, JP 香港金融管理局副总裁 金融学院副主席 王春新 香港特别行政区特首政策组副组长 朱军林 澳门金融管理局顾问 李杰峰 香港中小上市公司协会会长 捷克JKL投资有限公司董事长 编辑丨兰银帆 审核 | 王晗 来源丨清华五道口 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange 2025 Global Investor Conference emphasizes the theme of "New Quality Productivity: Investment Opportunities in China - Open Innovation in the Shenzhen Market," showcasing the investment value of Chinese assets and the A-share market through various formats such as keynote speeches, roundtable discussions, and company roadshows [1] Group 1 - The keynote speech by former World Bank Vice President Ian Goldin discusses global economic trends and the development of new quality productivity in China [1] - Goldin expresses concerns about protectionism and nationalism, highlighting that these factors can lead to distrust between nations and reduce cooperation, which is essential for addressing systemic risks [2][3] - He emphasizes the need for stable mechanisms to foster cooperation among countries, as global challenges such as climate change and pandemics require collective action [2][3] Group 2 - Goldin advocates for tighter cooperation among countries, especially in light of the U.S. imposing tariffs and reluctance to collaborate, stressing the importance of open trade systems and stable global financial frameworks [3] - He praises Shenzhen as an open city that has made significant efforts to integrate into the global economy, noting its achievements over the past 40 years and expressing optimism for its future development [3]

止损，永远是对的，错了也对！ 死扛，永远是错的，对了也错！ 横批：止损无条件！ 如果没有交易原则，那么，一切技术等于零！ 黄金今年是不断创历史的一年，元旦节后黄金多空都达到了极致，尤其是进入到4月份之后这种走势更是陷入癫狂；过去100单日涨跌100美元的稀有行情现 在成了家常便饭，日内V型反转，倒V走势成了常态！ 黄金超级无敌大扫荡还会不断上演，主要是由当前基本面决定的！在关税大战，地缘局势，去美元化，美联储政策不确定，全球经济衰退等大背景下，黄金 暴涨、暴跌成为家常便饭，并且越来越多！未来相当长的一段时间里，黄金大概率3400--3100或2950--3500间反复大扫荡，然后寻求大区间突破！做多，做 空，都可以，只要有充足的理由都可以，带好损，不抗单，控制好仓位；只要不损，很容易大赚！ 周末几个重大消息 1、美国评级遭下调，国际信用评级机构穆迪5月16日宣布，由于美国政府债务和利率支付比例增加，该机构决定将美国主权信用评级从Aaa下调至Aa1，同 时将美国主权信用评级展望从"负面"调整为"稳定"。 2、特朗普继续逼迫美联储降息，当地时间周六（5月17日），美国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"上发帖称：" ...

Group 1 - The concept of fragmentation is defined as the phenomenon where global trade, investment, and technology exchanges become increasingly divided into relatively independent economic groups and regions due to cognitive biases, geopolitical factors, populism, and trade protectionism [2] - Trade protectionism and populism stem from cognitive biases, such as the belief that trade surpluses are exploitative and that tariffs primarily burden exporting countries rather than importing ones [2] - The recent agreement between the US and China to suspend most mutual tariffs highlights the importance of cooperation in the face of fragmentation [2] Group 2 - Constructive global cooperation is essential in addressing common challenges such as economic recession, climate change, and technological transformation [3] - There is a need to correct cognitive biases and emphasize the importance of economic trade balance and the relationship between trade deficits and the status of sovereign currencies as world currencies [3] - Encouraging technological innovation and cooperation, strengthening international capital ties, and improving policy coordination and transparency are crucial steps to counter fragmentation [3] Group 3 - The approach to dealing with conflicts should involve a firm commitment to beliefs, principles, and actions, emphasizing that globalization is an unstoppable trend [4] - The notion of "everyone's well-being is the true well-being" should guide efforts to address the issues of fragmentation [4]

每经记者｜赵景致 黄婉银 每经编辑｜魏官红 5月17日，在2025年清华五道口全球金融论坛现场，重塑布雷顿森林体系委员会执行董事马克·乌赞在接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时表示，去年是布雷顿 森林体系成立80周年，这是以美元为中心的国际货币体系。如今，人们对布雷顿森林体系框架已经有一些紧张和担忧，所以需要改革重塑布雷顿森林体系。 重塑布雷顿森林体系委员会执行董事马克·乌赞 图片来源：主办方供图 "我们是否想要维护多边主义？是否想要保留惠及所有人的游戏规则？就维护多边主义而言，确保我们在贸易和全球金融领域遵循游戏规则，这对中国非常 有益。"马克·乌赞表示。 马克·乌赞指出，与此同时，作为世界最大经济体的美国却在质疑：二战后建立的国际秩序是否已不合时宜？这种国际秩序是否在与美国作对？因此，他认 为，需要重新平衡全球经济、重新平衡全球治理，同时开始思考未来的各种可能性，需要努力为即将到来的多极化格局制定新的游戏规则。 对于未来美元的走势，马克·乌赞对《每日经济新闻》记者表示，目前美国对全球金融的政策和战略充满不确定性与混乱，大家完全看不清其清晰脉络。但 有一点能够明确，那就是美国正在呼吁全球经济重新平衡，这显然会对美 ...

Group 1 - The price of gold jewelry in Shenzhen's Shui Bei International Jewelry Trading Center surged to 753 RMB per gram, marking a more than 25% increase since the beginning of the year and reaching a nearly ten-year historical peak [1] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including continuous gold purchases by global central banks, weakened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, and heightened geopolitical risks, which have pushed international gold prices above 2400 USD per ounce [3] - Despite the record high gold prices, the retail market is experiencing a mixed response, with some brands offering "fixed price" gold jewelry at prices as high as 900 RMB per gram, while traditional small merchants face profit compression [5] Group 2 - Ordinary investors are advised to approach the current gold price surge with caution, as prices are at historical highs and short-term volatility risks are increasing, suggesting a rational perspective on market enthusiasm [7] - Consumers with rigid demand are encouraged to adopt a "phased purchasing" strategy, prioritizing cost-effective basic styles to avoid impulsive spending [7] - The ongoing price fluctuations in the gold market raise questions about whether this is a fleeting phenomenon or the beginning of a bull market, inviting discussions on personal investment experiences [8]

Group 1 - The 2025 Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum opened in Shenzhen, Guangdong, focusing on building an open and inclusive economic and financial system [1] - The forum featured 13 thematic discussions and 2 closed-door meetings, highlighting its significance as one of China's most influential financial academic forums [1] - Key speakers included former Chinese central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan and Nobel laureate Michael Spence, emphasizing the importance of global cooperation and economic governance [1][2] Group 2 - The need for an open and inclusive economic and financial system is crucial for sustainable global development and shared prosperity, as stated by Jiao Jie [2] - China is transitioning from a rule follower to a rule reformer in global governance, focusing on high-quality development to address external uncertainties [2] - Marek Belka pointed out Europe's long-term challenges of low productivity and weak GDP growth, stressing the need for market diversification and cooperation with China [3] Group 3 - Belka emphasized the importance of protecting intellectual property and technology transfer in the context of EU-China cooperation and competition [3] - Michael Spence suggested that business schools should align more closely with global economic trends and foster regional cooperation, given China's growing significance in Asia [3] - The changing dynamics of international relations may lead to scientists returning to their home countries for better research opportunities, impacting global collaboration [3]