劳动力市场稳定，一直有韧性。 美联储理事Kugler：我们目前的政策立场是适度限制性。 ...

美联储理事库格勒：劳动力市场可能接近充分就业。 ...

过去两次经济复苏表明3.5%的失业率是可持续的。 劳动力市场稳定，失业率仅缓慢上升。 美联储理事Kugler：劳动力市场可能接近充分就业。 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry analyzed. Core Insights - The study estimates the scale of labor market scarring effects in developing countries, particularly focusing on the stigma and human capital loss experienced by unemployed workers due to factory closures. The findings indicate a significant and lasting income reduction, with average hourly wages declining by 7.5% over a nine-year observation period, and a more pronounced decline of 10.8% in the first year following job loss. The analysis reveals that stigma accounts for 30.8% of the average income loss, while lost employer-specific human capital explains the remaining 69.2% [4][59][60]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The introduction discusses the reallocation of labor and the potential for scarring effects in labor markets, particularly in developing countries where informal employment is prevalent. The paper aims to fill the gap in literature regarding labor market scarring effects in these economies [8]. Literature Review - The literature review highlights the scarcity of empirical evidence on labor market scarring effects in developing countries, contrasting with the extensive research available for developed economies. It references various studies that have examined the impact of unemployment on wages and employment probabilities in different contexts [15][18]. Data - The study utilizes data from the National Employment and Unemployment Survey (ENOE) in Mexico, covering a representative sample of approximately 1.67 million workers from 2005 to 2019. The analysis focuses on individuals aged 15 to 65 and examines the effects of job loss due to factory closures [20][22]. Econometric Methods - The econometric strategy involves estimating the average impact of unemployment on labor market outcomes, distinguishing between temporary and permanent effects. The study employs a difference-in-differences (DID) approach to control for unobserved individual characteristics [26][29]. Results - The results indicate that workers displaced by factory closures experience significant and persistent wage declines, with an average reduction of 7.5%. The analysis shows that the probability of formal employment decreases in the short term but recovers over time. The findings also reveal differences in the impact of factory closures based on education levels and gender [39][41][43]. Conclusion - The conclusion summarizes the contributions of the study, emphasizing the importance of understanding labor market scarring effects in developing countries and the relative contributions of stigma and human capital loss to income reductions. The report suggests avenues for future research to further explore these dynamics [58][60].

Core Insights - The New York Federal Reserve reported a decline in the labor market, income, and income expectations for April [1] Labor Market - The labor market showed signs of weakening, indicating potential challenges for employment growth [1] Income Trends - There was a noticeable decrease in income levels, which may impact consumer spending and overall economic activity [1] Income Expectations - Expectations regarding future income have also declined, suggesting a more cautious outlook among consumers [1]

美国首次申请失业救济金人数超预期下降，削弱了市场对劳动力即将恶化的预期。 根据美国劳工部周四发布的数据，5月3日当周，美国首次申请失业救济人数下降13,000至228,000人，低于市场预测的230,000人，结束了纽约州春假期间 的申请数量短暂飙升的情况。 与此同时，4月26日当周，持续申请失业救济的人数—衡量就业情况的代理指标—也下降了29,000至187.9万人，好于预期的189.5万人。 申请失业救济的人数下降，表明就业市场仍具韧性，与CEO们不断发出的警告形成鲜明对比。自新冠疫情以来，首申人数一直在20万-25万的健康范围内 波动，表明企业仍然不愿解雇在疫情期间难以招募的员工。 企业高管们不断警告商业环境恶化，但数据显示仍没有出现大规模裁员。这种矛盾情况能持续多久？ 表面上看，劳动力市场仍坚如磐石，但下方的裂缝正在扩大。 美国供应管理协会(ISM)上周的一项调查显示，4月份制造业就业仍然低迷，并指出"裁员是主要工具，表明减少人头变得更加紧迫"。 Workday、陶氏化学、CNN、星巴克、西南航空和Meta等公司今年都已宣布裁员计划。然而，整体而言，这些裁员规模相对有限，尚未在全国就业数据中 产生显著 ...

美国初请人数下降，与鲍威尔的说法一致 金十数据5月8日讯，美国上周初请失业金人数有所下降，此前正值春季假期和4月底的复活节假期，初 请人数曾出现短期飙升。截至5月3日当周，初请失业金人数减少1.3万人，至22.8万人。这与经济学家的 预测中值大致相符。上周续请失业金人数也下降至188万人。这表明尽管在关税和特朗普政府缩减联邦 政府的行动带来了连锁反应，经济不确定性增加，但裁员水平依然较低。美联储主席鲍威尔周三表示， 尽管关税可能导致失业率和通胀率上升，但劳动力市场仍然稳固。"人们感到压力和担忧。但失业率没 有上升，创造就业机会情况良好，工资状况良好。""初请失业金人数并没有以任何令人惊讶的方式增 加。因此，经济本身仍处于稳健状态，"鲍威尔说。 ...

财料 美联储连续第三次维持利率不变，但强调不确定性极高；市场担忧"观望"也会带来风险……一图读懂美联储5月利率决议 0% 2018 2018 2019 2020 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023 2024 联邦基金利率变化值(%) 0.9 0.6 0.3 0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.9 -1.2 2018 2018 2019 2020 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023 2024 02 | 声明关键内容 01 维持利率不变并继续缩表 以12-0的投票比例通过将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.50%不 变,为连续第三次按兵不动;将继续以当前速度减少国债和 MBS持有量。 02 对经济状况的看法 失业率已稳定,劳动力市场坚韧,但高失业率和高通胀的风 险已经上升;经济前景不确定性"进一步增加";尽管净出口 波动影响了数据,但经济活动仍继续以"稳健的速度"扩张。 03 | 新闻发布会要点 01 利率前景 目前的不确定性情况要求美联储继续等待,所有委员都支持 等待;特朗普要求降息根本不会影响我们的工作;等待的成 本很低,认为美联储不需要急于调整利率;在某些情况下今 年降息是合适的,在某些情 ...

新西兰联储主席：劳动力市场数据确实凸显了新西兰经济的疲软本质。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：如果确实看到劳动力市场明显恶化，当然希望我们能够支持这种情况。 ...