Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is at a critical juncture regarding its monetary policy, with mixed signals from officials reflecting a deep examination of economic data and awareness of risk factors [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Divergence - There is significant division within the Federal Reserve regarding the urgency of interest rate cuts, with some officials advocating for a July cut while others, including Powell and Williams, oppose it [2]. - Officials emphasize the need to observe several months of data to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation, noting the persistent risk of sticky inflation despite a recent drop in April's inflation data [2][3]. - Most officials are targeting action in the fall, preferring a data-driven approach to monetary policy adjustments rather than responding to political pressure [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy experienced a contraction in Q1, with GDP declining at an annualized rate of 0.5%, reversing previous growth expectations [3]. - The trade deficit unexpectedly widened to $96.6 billion in May, driven by a 5.2% drop in exports, particularly in industrial goods like crude oil [3]. - The preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, fell to 2.1% in April, with expectations for a slight increase to 2.3% in May due to rising import costs being passed to consumers [3]. Group 3: Political Dynamics - President Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Powell's leadership and is considering early nominations for the next Fed chair, although current plans indicate no immediate changes [4][5]. - The Chicago Fed President emphasized that any potential changes in leadership would not affect current monetary policy, reinforcing the Fed's commitment to its independent decision-making process [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The Fed is closely monitoring upcoming economic data, including June's non-farm payrolls and Q2 GDP, with a potential interest rate cut in September if core PCE falls near 2% and unemployment does not worsen significantly [6]. - Market expectations suggest three rate cuts this year, with a 75% probability for a September cut, while July's cut is seen as less likely [6]. - The Fed's challenge lies in balancing the need to support economic growth and employment while managing inflation risks, particularly in light of rising unemployment claims and sticky core inflation [8].

Group 1 - The U.S. has implemented a "case-by-case approval" system for semiconductor equipment exports to China, which is seen as a strategy to slow down China's chip manufacturing capabilities [2][6] - This approach is compared to China's control over rare earth exports, highlighting the differences in resource dependency between the two nations [2][6] - The market reacted positively to the news of China's rare earth sector, with an 8% increase in the rare earth stocks within two days, while TSMC faced uncertainty due to the new approval process [2][6] Group 2 - China's rare earth management is described as a "textbook-level" strategy, effectively controlling military supply while allowing civilian use, showcasing a dual approach [6][10] - The establishment of a full-process traceability system for rare earths by China has made it difficult for U.S. companies to bypass controls, contrasting with the semiconductor equipment situation [6][10] - Chinese companies are advancing their capabilities, with SMIC moving into 28nm processes and Huawei's AI chips nearing NVIDIA's performance, which undermines the effectiveness of U.S. export restrictions [6][10] Group 3 - The ongoing supply chain competition between the U.S. and China has escalated, with both sides trying to outmaneuver each other in terms of technology and resources [8][11] - U.S. semiconductor equipment manufacturers are feeling the pressure, with losses reported at $2.8 billion due to the loss of the Chinese market [6][11] - China's strategy of allowing European car manufacturers to access rare earths while restricting U.S. companies has created a divide in the Western alliance and strengthened China's pricing power [10][11] Group 4 - The U.S. appears to be showing signs of fatigue in this ongoing trade battle, as evidenced by its eagerness to negotiate [11] - The competition is fundamentally about who can endure longer, with the U.S. relying on global collaboration and China leveraging resource monopolization [11] - The outcome of this trade conflict may hinge on who can effectively target the other's vulnerabilities, with China currently holding a strong position due to its control over rare earths [11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent Israel-Iran conflict has significantly impacted global financial markets, particularly the precious metals market, leading to increased volatility in gold and silver prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the initiation of the "Lion's Roar" operation by Israel on June 13, gold prices surged, with COMEX gold reaching a peak of $3,470 per ounce and Shanghai gold hitting 800 yuan per gram [1]. - After the conflict escalated, gold prices retreated to a low of $3,300 per ounce, marking a decline of 5%, while Shanghai gold fell to 770 yuan per gram, a decrease of approximately 3.7% [1]. - Silver prices also experienced significant fluctuations, reaching a historical high of 9,075 yuan per kilogram during the conflict, but subsequently fell to around 8,700 yuan per kilogram after the ceasefire [1][2]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Global gold ETF holdings have been increasing continuously, driven by heightened risk aversion among investors due to the conflict [2]. - In contrast, domestic trading volumes for Shanghai gold and silver have remained relatively subdued, indicating a more cautious and rational approach from local investors [2]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Precious Metals - The conflict has raised concerns about energy production and shipping stability in the Middle East, particularly regarding the safety of the Strait of Hormuz, which could impact global economic growth and inflation [2][3]. - The relationship between gold and oil prices has strengthened during the conflict, with fears of stagflation in developed economies if oil exports are restricted [3]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly its stance on interest rates, is also influencing gold prices, with potential shifts depending on the economic impact of the conflict [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The immediate impact of the Israel-Iran conflict on global energy supply chains and shipping routes is considered limited, suggesting that gold prices may lack sustained upward momentum in the short term [4]. - However, if the Federal Reserve initiates interest rate cuts later in the year, there could be a new wave of upward pressure on gold and silver prices [4]. - The long-term outlook remains positive for gold prices, driven by increasing physical demand from central bank purchases over the next 3 to 5 years [4].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing silent competition over rare earth resources between China and the United States is not merely a commercial transaction but a complex diplomatic maneuver with significant strategic implications [1][3]. Group 1: Importance of Rare Earths - Rare earths are crucial for high-tech industries, being essential for products ranging from smartphones and electric vehicles to advanced military systems [3]. - China holds the largest reserves and production capacity of rare earths globally, making it a key player in the industry [3]. Group 2: U.S. Urgency and Strategic Moves - The U.S. has become increasingly anxious about rare earths due to its heavy reliance on China for over 80% of rare earth processing capabilities, which poses a risk to its military and high-tech sectors [3][5]. - Former President Trump attempted to stockpile rare earths to mitigate supply disruptions, but China anticipated this and implemented stringent export controls [5]. Group 3: China's Export Strategy - China has introduced a "six-month cycle" export model, requiring approvals every six months, which complicates U.S. efforts to stockpile rare earths [7][9]. - This strategy forces U.S. companies to purchase based on actual needs rather than stockpiling, effectively limiting their strategic options [7]. Group 4: Conditions for U.S. Imports - China has set two stringent conditions for U.S. companies seeking to import rare earths: they must be private enterprises and the demand must be deemed "reasonable" by Chinese authorities [9][11]. - These conditions significantly hinder U.S. military access to rare earths, as the majority of demand is concentrated in defense and semiconductor sectors [9]. Group 5: Strategic Implications - The rare earth competition highlights a broader strategic contest between the two nations, showcasing China's ability to leverage its resources to protect national interests [12][13]. - The situation serves as a warning to other countries about the importance of national interests in the context of globalization [12]. Group 6: Future Considerations - The ongoing rare earth competition raises questions about the potential for U.S. countermeasures and whether China can further enhance its strategic position [14].

我是Robin邢思强我的同事我们的资深中国经济学家郑宁坚利也在线这个暑期特别谈大概我们已经开启了有接近五年多了基本上就是每个暑假前夕六月份给即将休假的各位投资者朋友带上一些所谓的精神食粮但这个精神食粮也不希望它特别枯燥 当经济不好的时候大家又一窝蜂地涌向了买美国国债也就是说这是一个美股和美债之间的二人转万变不离其宗这是过去30年双循环之间出现的一个美元一直独秀美国资产例外论的现象然而最近的三大政策变化从贸易保护主义实际上意味着从过去30多年支持的全球化慢慢走向了偏美国优先本土保护主义 所以尽管我们会涉及到一些老生常谈的分析接下来中国经济地缘政治的一些方法论一些框架但更多的也会融入我们最近半年感受到了一些新的变化这些变化对各种跨类资产的投资带来的新启示就通过音频的方式但是我们会给大家展示我们精心制作的文献PPT 那么可能会花个三到五分钟简单的介绍一下结论后面Jenny振宁会花个15分钟左右把最近的三桩大事就是中美贸易摩擦中国国内刺激政策以及我们对从今年看到明年中国的通缩能不能走出来的一个周期性的判断讲清楚后面我也花15分钟或略多的时间把我们的研究框架 以及长线来讲中美地缘政治博弈之下全球的资产配置者现在感受到了 ...

每周一景： 湖南永州九嶷山风景名胜区 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 博弈"远"：从公司债 - 中证 - 中债利率的传导机制 。 低估值成交对债券估值的影响，主要体现在两个 维度：一是交易所公司债与银行间可比券估值的分化，以 24 中化 16 为例，在 5 月底前，其与银行间可 比券 25 中化股 MTN001 的估值差异在 2BP 以内， 6 月以来，估值差异有所走阔，该成分券与银行间 可比券的当前估值差异为 7BP 。二是信用债 ETF 放量对曲线的影响。深证信用债 ETF 的久期为 3.05 年，上证信用债 ETF 的久期为 4.11 年，信用债 ETF 的放量推动 3-5 年期信用债的配置需求抬升，曲 线或趋于平缓，中高等级信用利差收窄，带动高等级信用债估值整体下行。 博弈"发"：抢券之下，一级市场买入仍可博弈 。 科创债一级新发以低估值为主，发行时票面利率较估值 平均低 -6BP 。 53 只有可比券的非金科创债中，高估值发行的有 13 只，低估值发行的有 40 只，低估 值超过 -10BP 的有 13 只，最大低估值为 -25BP 。当前利差走势看，多数科创债的估值位于可比券估 值± 2BP 内。科创 ...

报告导读： 军工板块下跌，我国多款先进装备亮相第三十三届巴黎航展，以伊冲突再升 级。大国博弈加剧是长期趋势，军工长期向好。 扫码关注 星标不迷路 国泰海通证券研究所官方公众号 海量研报 | 热门活动 | 视听 内容 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 中国多款装备亮相巴黎航展，以伊冲突再升级 报告日期：2025.06.26 报告作者： 彭磊 （分析师），登记编号： S 0880518100003 杨天昊 （ 分析师 )，登记编号：S 0880523080010 大国博弈加剧是长期趋势，军工长期向好。 我们认为，大国博弈加剧是长期趋势，据中国青年报，美国及 其盟友国防战略重心逐步向印太转向，中国周边紧张局势可能逐步加剧，和平需要保卫，加大国防投入是 必选项，军工长期趋势向好。 2027 年要确保实现建军百年奋斗目标，十四五期间有望加速补短板。 军工板块上周下跌，国内航天发射与装备亮相成亮点。 1 ）上周（ 6.15-6.20 ）上证综指下跌 0.51% ，创 业板指数下跌 1.66% ，国防军工指数下跌 2.39% ，跑输大盘 1.88 个百分点，排名第 22/29 。 2 ...

在全球资源竞争的大舞台上，稀土无疑是最具战略意义的"棋子"之一。中美贸易战的硝烟尚未散去，稀土问题也成为了双方博弈的关键焦点之一。 出人意料的是，在这场争斗的关键时刻，俄罗斯突然抛出一张"稀土牌"。俄罗斯对外宣布，其境内不仅稀土储量丰富，完全可以实现自给自足，甚至还能 够"慷慨"供应全球市场。这一声明恰好发生在中美谈判陷入僵局之时，值得注意的是，俄罗斯似乎向外界传递出"美国可以购买俄罗斯稀土"的信息，仿佛是 给特朗普提供了解决困境的"钥匙"。 稀土成全球博弈焦点，俄罗斯"插足"加剧中美竞争 作为全球稀土储量大国，中国自然对俄罗斯此举深感关注。毕竟，这关乎中美之间的资源博弈。在如今全球资源争夺白热化的背景下，稀土不仅广泛应用于 手机、电动汽车等民用领域，更在导弹制导、雷达系统等军事科技中扮演着至关重要的角色。 美国是全球最大的稀土消费国之一，但长期以来，其国内稀土开采与提炼能力几乎为零，绝大部分稀土依赖进口。中国因此成为美国的主要供应国，直到中 国在稀土问题上出手，才让特朗普政府感到极大的压力。如果中国长时间停止对美国的稀土供应，许多依赖稀土的高技术领域可能会陷入停滞。 据外媒报道，近期中美围绕稀土出口问题展开 ...

2025年2月，CambioML的创始人在领英上发布了一篇文章，表示自己正在将公司的业务重心从硅谷转移到迪拜。 CambioML是一家用AI进行数据分析的明星AI创业公司，它创立于硅谷，并在这里先后获得YC、General Catalyst和三星NEXT等顶级风投的支持。但如 今，它却选择离开这里，奔向一个黄沙环绕的地带。 CambioML的选择并不是个例，最近几年，全球已有越来越多的AI初创企业选择将海湾国家（沙特、阿联酋、卡塔尔）作为企业发展的第一站。比如 Wego、FlapKap、DXwand等等。 在传统的印象中，中东的标签是沙漠、石油、战争、宗教和王室，这里充满了神秘和危险，又拥有无数令人着迷的财富。但现在，这样的刻板印象正在被 打破。 有人将它比喻成15年前的中国，也有人将这里与硅谷相提并论，甚至认为这里比硅谷更有活力。AI、自动驾驶、生物医药、航空航天，最先进的技术和 商业在这里被频繁提起。 可以说，中东已经成为继美国和中国之后，最引人注目的AI高地。 "眼前的景象让我惊叹不已。即使在45摄氏度的高温下，建筑工地依然熙熙攘攘！GCC（海湾合作委员会）领导人热情洋溢地谈论着如何构建人工智能驱 动的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Defense emphasizes that China's development does not pose a threat to any country and advocates for peaceful coexistence between China and the United States, rejecting the notion of zero-sum games in international relations [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **U.S. Military Spending and Strategy** - The U.S. plans to allocate $12 billion for the "Pacific Deterrence Initiative" to enhance military readiness in the Indo-Pacific region and strengthen Taiwan's defense capabilities [1] - **China's Position on Defense and Peace** - The Chinese military is portrayed as a steadfast force for maintaining world peace, contrasting with the U.S. approach of deterrence and coercion [1] - **Taiwan Issue** - The Taiwan issue is framed as an internal matter for China, with a strong rejection of foreign interference, particularly from the U.S. [1]