投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 = 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2025/7/16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 (bp) | | | DR001 | 1.53 | 10.60 | DR007 | 1.57 | 3.36 | | | GC001 | 1.50 | 1.00 | GC007 | 1.55 | -1.00 | | हिं | SHBOR 3M | 1.56 | -0.20 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | E | 1年期国债 | 1.37 | 0.50 | 5年期国债 | 1.50 | -1.55 | | 市 | 10年期国债 | 1.65 | -1.21 | 10年期美债 | 4.43 | 0.00 | | 场 | | | 回顾:央行昨日开展了3425亿元7天期逆回购操作,当日690亿元逆 ...

固收 事件驱动再次抬头与应对 华泰研究 张继强 研究员 2025 年 7 月 16 日│中国内地 资产配置周报 证券研究报告 核心观点 特朗普再度提出加征对等关税，国内宏观经济数据披露、政策预期升温，后 续的 7 月重要会议、中欧峰会即将召开，都导致市场事件驱动的特征有所抬 头，一定程度上加大了资产的潜在波动。目前影响大类资产走势的主要宏观 事件包括：特朗普对等关税、鲍威尔是否提前离任、俄乌局势以及国内政策 预期等。从应对思路上看，美国政策、地缘扰动等本身不可预测，甚至宏观 数据的能见度也在大幅降低，增加了交易的难度。一方面建议依托宏观事件 驱动提供的高赔率机会，尽量左侧做反转交易；另一方面沿着基本趋势寻找 高胜率机会。并站在宏观风险的维度，进行资产的多元化配置。 核心主题：事件驱动再次抬头与应对 当前影响市场走势的重要宏观事件包括：1）特朗普对等关税言论再度扰动 市场，不过在 TACO 预期下，市场对关税的定价非常克制，但也给了特朗 普加征关税的"底气"。2）美联储独立性再度受到挑战，鲍威尔提前离任 成为潜在黑天鹅事件，而英债、日债市场也先后因财政刺激受到冲击。3） 俄乌冲突的不确定性升温，但市场对地缘扰动 ...

Group 1 - The coal market is showing differentiation due to high temperatures and the ongoing "anti-involution" policy, with thermal coal prices expected to rise supported by seasonal electricity demand, while coking coal prices stabilize due to supply adjustments and demand replenishment [1] - The daily consumption of thermal coal by power plants in eight coastal provinces has exceeded 2.148 million tons, leading to a continuous release of procurement demand, with spot prices for thermal coal rising from 609 CNY/ton to 632 CNY/ton, an increase of 3.8% [2] - Domestic coal supply growth is limited due to high production baselines and safety production pressures during the rainy season, with the operating rate in Shanxi dropping to 70.1% and port inventories decreasing by 19% compared to the peak in the first half of the year [3] Group 2 - Despite short-term demand recovery, the coal industry faces long-term pressure from clean energy alternatives, with thermal power generation decreasing by 72.5 billion kWh in the first five months, leading to a declining share of coal in primary energy consumption [4] - The "anti-involution" policy is driving adjustments in the coking coal market by eliminating low-price competition and accelerating the elimination of backward production capacity, with coking coal prices rebounding by 9.76% to 1,350 CNY/ton [5] - Downstream steel mills maintain high average daily pig iron production of 2.4 million tons, but with the arrival of the summer construction off-season and narrowed export windows, there may be downward pressure on pig iron production [6] Group 3 - The current "anti-involution" policy emphasizes market orientation and structural optimization, aiming to enhance the proportion of advanced production capacity and optimize resource allocation, which may lead to profits concentrating among leading companies [7]

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-07-16 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《破内卷困局，离不开扩内需支撑》 - 2025.07.08 供给侧结构性调整可优化资源配置效率，加速推动产业结构调 整，夯实高质量发展基础，但借鉴 2016 年供给侧结构性改革经验， 短期供给侧结构性调整亦会对稳生产、稳就业和稳增长带来一定冲 击，往往需要扩内需政策配合，以保证经济平稳运行。与 2016 年相 比，当前我国经济面临较大不确定性，我国扩内需政策空间或弱于 2016 年，"反内卷"持续深化或考验地方政府战略定力。鉴于此，我 们跟踪观察重点行业"反内卷"推进情况，并展望短期相关行业资产 价格可能的走势。 通过重点跟踪光伏行业、钢铁行业、汽车行业，目前"反内卷" 政策预期持续升温，但政策举措尚局限于以行业自律为主，且缺乏扩 内需政策配合，未来"反内卷"政策持续深化仍有待进一步确认。 借鉴 2016 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-07-16 中国6月经济数据分化，关注美国6月PPI数据 市场分析 策略 "反内卷"预期火热。5月国内数据好坏参半，5月投资数据整体走弱，尤其是地产边际压力再增，后续或将拖累财 政收入，及整个地产链条；同时出口也略有承压，5月"抢出口"成色一般，叠加美国5月零售销售走弱，前期需求 透支下，后续外需预计将承压；5月仅有消费表现韧性，第三批消费品以旧换新资金将于7月下。中国6月制造业PMI 有所回升，但主要依赖部分原材料行业回升带动，国内经济企稳基础仍需夯实。中国上半年GDP同比增长5.3%， 高于全年预期目标5%，财政发力和"抢出口"现象为上半年经济数据提供支撑。中国6月规模以上工业增加值同比 6.8%，新能源汽车、工业机器人产量增速较快。中国6月社零同比增速放缓至4.8%，餐饮收入放缓，政策红利减弱。 投资方面，基建投资和制造业投资均明显回落，整体固定投资走弱。7月15日，人民银行以固定数量、利率招标、 多重价位中标方式开展14000亿元买断式逆回购操作，其中包括3个月期规模8000亿元、6个月期规模6000亿元，为 连续第2个月加量续做。这也是买断式逆回购启用以来，人民银行单次操 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the steel industry [3] Core Insights - In June 2025, crude steel production decreased by 9.2% year-on-year, indicating a reduction in production intensity among steel mills, although the reliability of this data is questioned [1] - The black metal smelting and rolling processing industry reported a revenue of 31,364.5 billion yuan from January to May, down 7.0% year-on-year, while total profits turned positive at 316.9 billion yuan [1] - The report highlights strong growth in both domestic and external demand, with net steel exports increasing by 10.7% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [2] - The report anticipates that the "anti-involution" policy may lead to a significant reduction in steel production, although the actual impact remains to be observed [1][7] Summary by Sections Production Data - In June 2025, crude steel production was 83.18 million tons, a 9.2% decrease year-on-year, with an average daily production of 2.773 million tons [5] - The production of pig iron in June was 71.91 million tons, down 4.1% year-on-year [5] - Steel production in June was 127.84 million tons, an increase of 1.8% year-on-year [5] Export and Import Data - In the first half of 2025, steel exports reached 5.512 million tons, a 10.7% increase year-on-year [2] - Steel imports in June were 470,000 tons, a decrease of 18.3% year-on-year [5] - Iron ore imports in June were 105.95 million tons, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year [5] Economic Context - The report notes that the general public budget deficit for 2025 is projected at 4%, with local government special bonds expected to reach 4.4 trillion yuan [2] - The fiscal policy is expected to play a crucial role in sustaining economic recovery, with significant investments in various sectors [2][6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares of companies such as Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and others, citing their undervaluation and potential for recovery [7][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of administrative measures to cut back on supply to accelerate industry profitability [7]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-16 工业硅现货价格上涨，期货盘面有一定正反馈 2025-07-15，工业硅期货价格大幅上涨，主力合约2509开于8645元/吨，最后收于8785元/吨，较前一日结算变化（240） 元/吨，变化（2.81）%。截止收盘，2509主力合约持仓396653手，2025-07-15仓单总数为50258手，较前一日变化 168手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格上涨。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9100-9200（150）元/吨；421#硅在9400-9600 （200）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8700（200）元/吨，99硅价格在8500-8600（200）元/吨。 整体硅煤市场以持稳为主，对下游硅厂而言，原料硅煤成本近期暂无变动。但若后续原料端焦煤现货价格普遍调 涨，则硅煤价格有同步跟涨的预期。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10600-11000（0）元/吨。SMM报道，受近期工业硅市场盘面持续推涨影 响，原料端DMC成本被拉高，促使其价格出现小幅上涨。 策略 工业硅： 市场分析 西北大厂减产，西南开工低于往年，短期供需基本面出现好转，期货盘面反弹 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Upward [2] - Coking coal and coke: Upward [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Sideways [2] - Glass: Upward [2] - Soda ash: Sideways [2] - SSE 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Sideways [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Sideways [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Sideways [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High-level sideways [4] - Silver: Bullish [4] - Pulp: Sideways [5] - Logs: Sideways [5] - Edible oils: Bullish [5] - Meal products: Wide-range sideways [5] - Live pigs: Rebound [8] - Rubber: Sideways [10] - PX: Wait-and-see [10] - PTA: Short on rallies [10] - MEG: Short on rallies [10] - PR: Wait-and-see [10] - PF: Wait-and-see [10] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities and financial products, including black commodities, financial futures, precious metals, light industrial products, agricultural products, and chemical products. It provides investment ratings and key factors affecting each product's price movement, suggesting corresponding investment strategies based on the current market situation and future expectations [2][4][5][8][10] Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Short-term sentiment drives prices up, but in the long run, supply will increase, demand will remain low, and port inventories will accumulate [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Supply may increase as mines resume production, and attention should be paid to the trends of hot metal and coal-coke supply [2] - **Rolled steel and rebar**: "Anti-involution" policies boost supply-side sentiment, but overall demand is weak, and prices will fluctuate [2] - **Glass**: Supply may contract in the short term, but demand will decline seasonally, and prices will be high and volatile [2] - **Soda ash**: Short-term valuation is low, and prices are driven up by sentiment. Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand [2] Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The economy shows resilience, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [4] - **Treasury bonds**: Market interest rates are consolidating, and it is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4] - **Gold**: The pricing mechanism is shifting, and multiple factors support high-level sideways movement [4] - **Silver**: Bullish due to various factors, including supply and demand and market sentiment [4] Light Industrial Products - **Pulp**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices will fluctuate [5] - **Logs**: Supply pressure eases, and prices will be stable with a sideways trend [5] Agricultural Products - **Edible oils**: Supply is abundant, but biofuel policies may boost prices, and they will be bullish with a sideways trend [5] - **Meal products**: USDA reports are bearish, but biofuel policies support prices, and they will fluctuate widely [5] - **Live pigs**: Supply is increasing, and demand is restricted by high temperatures, and prices may decline [8] - **Rubber**: Supply is affected by weather, demand is recovering structurally, and prices will fluctuate widely [10] Chemical Products - **PX**: Prices will follow oil prices due to tight supply in the short term [10] - **PTA**: Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and prices will follow costs [10] - **MEG**: Supply pressure may increase, and prices will be under pressure in the medium term [10] - **PR**: International oil prices are falling due to sanctions and production increases [10] - **PF**: Terminal demand is weak, and prices will continue to be weak [10]

在华电新能的带动下，A股电力股、储能概念股活跃，豫能控股、天宸股份涨停。 （声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。） 7月16日，千亿市值新股华电新能首发上市（600930，上市首日证券简称为"N华新"），盘中 一度涨到10元上方，较发行价大涨近220%。上市1小时内，该股成交额已超过80亿元。截至午 市收盘，其股价报7.38元/股，涨132.08%。 往前看， 在上市前市值超过千亿元的A股公司中，华电新能盘中最大涨幅已经超过中国石油上 市首日最大涨幅，创出A股新纪录，后者上市首日最大涨幅为191.14% 。 华电新能上市，是自2023年"8·27"新政以来A股规模最大的IPO项目， 成为A股市场最大的新 能源发电行业上市企业和中国华电旗下第一家千亿市值上市公司 。 公开资料显示，华电新能主营业务为风力发电和太阳能发电为主的新能源项目的开发、投资和 运营。截至2024年上半年，华电新能所控股的发电项目装机容量为5402.65万千瓦，其中风电 2751.58万千瓦、太阳能发电2651.07万千瓦。华电新能在招股书中介绍，其"风电和太阳能发 电装机及发电量规模均位于行业前列，市场占有率 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 海天精工（601882）跟踪点评 强推（维持） 盈利能力在"反内卷"下有望修复 目标价：26.18 元 事项： ❖ 7 月 1 日中央财经委员会第六次会议强调"纵深推进全国统一大市场建设"， 提出"依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产 能有序退出"，同日《求是》发文《深刻认识和综合整治"内卷式"竞争》。"反 内卷"成为制造业后续核心方向之一。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 3,352 | 3,732 | 4,285 | 4,889 | | 同比增速(%) | 0.9% | 11.3% | 14.8% | 14.1% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 523 | 620 | 730 | 848 | | 同比增速(%) | -14.2% | 18.6% | 17.7% | 16.2% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.00 | 1.19 | 1.40 | 1.62 | ...