相关报告 《市场分析：防御行业领涨 A 股震荡整理》 2025-06-17 《市场分析：成长行业领涨 A 股蓄势震荡》 2025-06-16 《市场分析：航天资源行业领涨 A 股震荡整 固》 2025-06-13 分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 通信电子行业领涨 A 股先抑后扬 ——市场分析 联系人： 李智 电话： 0371-65585629 周三（06 月 18 日）A 股市场先抑后扬、小幅震荡上扬，早盘股指低 开后震荡回落，盘中沪指在 3376 点附近获得支撑，午后股指震荡回 升，盘中电子元件、消费电子、通信设备以及半导体等行业表现较 好；农药兽药、小金属、美容护理以及医疗服务等行业表现较弱， 沪指全天基本呈现小幅震荡整理的运行特征。创业板市场周三震荡 上行，创业板成分指数全天表现强于主板市场。 ◼ 后市研判及投资建议 周三 A 股市场先抑后扬、小幅震荡上扬，早盘股指低开后震荡回 落，盘中沪指在 3376 点附近获得支撑，午后股指震荡回升，盘中电 子元件、消费电子、通信设备以及半导体等行业表现较好；农药兽 药、小金属、 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2025 06 18 年 月 日 商贸零售 5 月社零同比增长 6.4%，略超预期 5 月社零同比增长 6.4%，略超预期。据国家统计局及 Wind 数据，2025 年 5 月份社会消费品零售总额为 41326 亿元/同比+6.4%，增速环比为 +1.3pct；其中除汽车以外的消费品零售额 37316 亿元/同比+7.0%，排除 石油及汽车因素以外的消费品零售额 35421 亿元/同比+6.3%。价上来看， 5 月 CPI 为同比-0.1%，与前值持平。整体而言，2025 年 1-5 月社会消费 品零售总额 203171 亿元/同比+5.0%，除汽车以外的消费品零售额 184324 亿元/同比+5.6%，略超预期。 分品类看，必选品类同比均增长，国补下家电/通讯器材环比增长加速。 其中：1)必选品类：同比均保持正增。2025 年 5 月粮油食品/饮料/烟酒/ 日用品同比+14.6%/+0.1%/+11.2%/+8.0%，环比分别为+0.6pct/- 2.8pct/+7.2pct/+0.4pct；2)可选：仅石油制品同比下滑，国补下家电/通 讯器材环比增长加 ...

供给逐渐收缩、票价跌幅收窄，旺季供需改善可期 [Table_Industry] 航空运输 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 06 月 18 日 。。 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业专题研究（普通） | 航空运输 | | --- | | 投资评级 看好 | | 上次评级 看好 | | [Table_Author] 匡培钦 交通运输行业首席分析师 | | [Table_StockAndRank] | 执业编号：S1500524070004 邮 箱：kuangpeiqin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 航空运输月度专题：供给逐渐收缩、票价跌 幅收窄，旺季供需改善可期 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 06 月 18 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [事件： Table_Summary ummar 各航司发布 y] ] 2025 年 5 月经营数据。 ➢ 投资建议 五一假期行业票 ...

Group 1 - UBS forecasts a 6% year-on-year growth in EPS for the CSI 300 A-shares by 2025, assuming current US-China tariffs remain unchanged [1] - A-shares are expected to experience limited downside with potential upward catalysts from policy changes, long-term capital inflows, and structural reforms [1] - The "national team" may increase holdings to stabilize the market in extreme scenarios [1] Group 2 - UBS analyzed five categories of capital flows and their potential impact on market styles amid macroeconomic uncertainties [2] - Central Huijin, representing the "national team," significantly entered the market during corrections, with 70% of its investments flowing into the CSI 300 ETF in 2024 [2] - Long-term investors and insurance companies favor high-dividend stocks and bank shares, creating a synergistic effect with Central Huijin [2] - Retail and short-term investors, along with quantitative funds, are expected to drive small-cap stocks to outperform large-cap stocks [2] - Public funds are facing sluggish issuance, negatively impacting growth sectors dominated by public funds [2] - Southbound capital is anticipated to continue flowing into new economy sectors, albeit at a slightly slower pace [2] Group 3 - UBS outlines five scenarios for industry preferences and investment themes [3] - Export-oriented industries, domestic consumption, and high-dividend sectors are highlighted across various scenarios, with a focus on technology and AI [6] - Easing trade tensions could benefit export-oriented sectors and boost high-beta industries, while defensive and high-dividend stocks may attract more investor interest under adverse conditions [6] - Strong policy stimulus is expected to benefit the consumption and real estate sectors the most, while moderate policy efforts may lead to inflows into service industries and AI themes [6] Group 4 - A list of recommended stocks includes PetroChina, Yangtze Power, and others, with respective price targets and upside potential [7] - PetroChina has a market cap of 165.08 billion RMB, with a target price of 11.80 RMB, indicating a 31% upside [7] - NAURA Technology shows a significant upside potential of 37% with a target price of 566.50 RMB [7] - Tuopu has the highest upside potential at 75%, with a target price of 81.00 RMB [7]

Group 1: Summer Travel Market Trends - The summer travel market is experiencing significant growth, with a 70% increase in travelers and an 80% increase in GMV compared to the previous year, indicating a strong recovery and potential for structural upgrades in the market [1] - Family travel, particularly among parents and children, is expected to dominate the summer travel market, accounting for over 60% of travelers, with a notable increase in demand for mid to long-distance travel destinations [1][2] - The graduation travel segment is also emerging, characterized by short trips and a focus on emotional value and unique experiences, with over 40% of summer travelers being part of the family travel demographic [2] Group 2: Domestic and International Travel Preferences - Popular domestic travel themes include traditional culture, summer retreats, and seaside leisure, with top destinations such as Beijing, Sanya, and Shanghai seeing increased booking interest [2] - International travel is recovering due to improved visa accessibility and flight availability, with short-haul destinations like Japan and the UAE gaining popularity, and long-haul destinations like the UK and Nordic countries seeing significant growth [3] - Emerging and niche destinations are attracting more attention, with countries like Belgium, Luxembourg, and Zambia experiencing over 100% growth in bookings compared to last year [3]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed results, with the leading consumption ETF (159928) rising by 0.25% and achieving a trading volume of over 220 million CNY, with a total scale exceeding 12.3 billion CNY [1] - The top ten constituent stocks of the consumption ETF experienced varied performance, with Dongpeng Beverage rising over 3% and Shanxi Fenjiu increasing over 1%, while Muyuan Foods and Yili fell by over 1% [1] - The "618" shopping festival has significantly boosted consumer spending, with platforms like JD and Tmall reporting over 200% growth in transaction volume and order numbers [2] Group 2 - The white liquor sector is facing challenges due to the implementation of "prohibition orders," leading to a decline in demand and price fluctuations, but it is suggested that the sector may present investment opportunities as valuations are at a low point [2][3] - The white liquor industry is undergoing a transformation, with a shift from inventory reduction to capacity reduction, influenced by external policies and market conditions [3] - The beer sector is expected to recover as the peak consumption season approaches, supported by improved sales data and promotional activities during the "618" festival [4] Group 3 - The snack sector is experiencing high growth, driven by strong product categories and new distribution channels, with specific products like konjac and quail eggs showing promising sales performance [6] - The restaurant supply chain is anticipated to benefit from policy stimuli, with a long-term growth outlook due to increasing demand for cost control among restaurant businesses [6] - The dairy sector is seeing improvements in the raw milk supply-demand balance, with expectations for a cyclical turnaround [6] Group 4 - The consumption ETF (159928) includes essential consumer sectors, demonstrating resilience across economic cycles, with over 67% of the top ten constituent stocks being key players in the white liquor and pork industries [6][7] - The ETF's major holdings include leading companies such as Yili (10.11%), Kweichow Moutai (9.96%), and Wuliangye (9.77%), indicating a strong focus on the food and beverage sector [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Russian economy is expected to see a GDP growth of 1% to 2% by 2025, indicating a gradual recovery [1] Economic Forecast - The Russian ruble is considered overvalued, with a reasonable exchange rate projected to be between 90 to 95 rubles per dollar [1] - There is a significant likelihood that the benchmark interest rate will decrease from the current 20% to 17% by the end of this year [1] - For a sustainable economic recovery, key interest rates need to be maintained between 12% and 14% [1]

瑞典央行：去年开始的经济复苏已失去动力，预计通胀率将略低于之前的预测。 ...

瑞典央行：复苏进展比预期的更为缓慢。短期内预计也将有大量不确定性阻碍经济复苏。 ...

截至2025年6月18日 10:15，中证主要消费指数上涨0.26%，成分股燕京啤酒上涨6.36%，东鹏饮料上涨2.53%，今世缘上涨1.45%，青岛啤酒上涨1.44%，海大 集团上涨1.43%。消费ETF嘉实(512600)红盘蓄势。 流动性方面，消费ETF嘉实盘中成交98.23万元。拉长时间看，截至6月17日，消费ETF嘉实近1年日均成交1013.66万元。 规模方面，消费ETF嘉实近1年规模增长1.24亿元。份额方面，消费ETF嘉实近1周份额增长390.00万份。 从估值层面来看，消费ETF嘉实跟踪的中证主要消费指数最新市盈率（PE-TTM）仅18.76倍，处于近1年0.4%的分位，即估值低于近1年99.6%以上的时间， 处于历史低位。 6月16日，国家统计局发布5月份经济数据。其中，5月份，社会消费品零售总额41326亿元，同比增长6.4%，达到2024年以来的最高增速。按消费类型分，5 月份，商品零售额36748亿元，同比增长6.5%，是2024年以来的最高增速；餐饮收入4578亿元，增长5.9%，是2024年4月以来的最高增速。 日前，国新办举行新闻发布会，国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司 ...