编者按：随着美国对华发起贸易战，中国国内部分产业链转移到东南亚，中国与东盟之间的经济关系日渐紧密。海关数据显示，中国对东盟连续 9年进出口保持增长，连续5年互为第一大贸易伙伴。可以说，中国与东盟充分发挥各自的资源优势、产业结构优势，贸易互补不断增强，带动了 上下游产品的进出口增长。 然而，伴随着双边贸易的高速增长，南海争端和美国对等关税等诸多挑战也同时困扰着中国与东盟。如何实现中国-东盟关系的新突破，已成为 双方政策制定的核心议题。在2025年6月举行的"全球南方与东南亚"学术会议上，观察者网和菲律宾中国研究会会长、亚太进步基金会研究员卢 西奥·布兰科·皮特洛三世，就中菲关系、中国-东盟关系的前景展开对话。 此外，菲律宾经历了不同的领导层更迭，每六年其外交政策、对华关系处理以及南海问题的应对策略都会出现摇摆。但共识在于，中国仍是菲律宾极为重要 的贸易伙伴，且应当以更妥善的方式处理与南海相关的议题。 卢西奥·皮特罗三世接受采访 观察者网：中菲之间的紧张态势在过去几年不断升级，这是为什么？如您所知，由于中美关系紧张，东盟的抉择正变得愈发艰难，而双向押注的对冲策略似 乎已经过时。这是否在经济上产生了反效果？ 卢西奥 ...

报告由林氏家居、Keep和艾瑞咨询联合发布 居家健康放松方式丨白皮书 核心摘要： 国民健康管理向身心灵平衡升级，居家运动放松成为重要手段 国民健康管理意识经历 从身体健康，到身心健康，再到身心灵平衡的三级跃迁。 高压生活导致国人身心灵 紧绷，系统性健康危机亟待破解。在此背景下， 运动和放松成为了国人健康管理的双引擎。 社会环境的发 展和科技的赋能，将居住空间转化为个人健康基站， 居家运动放松将成为健康生活重要环节 关注健康放松的人群追求高品质健康生活，家具舒适度是居家放松关键 关注健康放松的人群重视身心灵全面健康，愿意为自己的 高品质健康生活 投资；他们遵循自然节律，通过 运动和放松的有机结合实现高品质健康。 整体来看，当代人的放松空间既有居家，也有室外和商业室内场所，呈现跨空间利用的特点，但居家放松仍 为核心选择。另外， 家具舒适度是影响放松效果的关键因素，智能床架/床垫和沙发/沙发椅 是主要放松产 品。 从动态恢复至静态疗愈，四类人群借高品质家居重构健康阈值，高效放松 关注健康放松的人细分为 悦活高能族、自律管理派、宅家躺平派和松弛养生党。 悦活高能族： 能量外放，通过动态恢复 提升睡眠质量； 偏好运动恢 ...

Core Insights - The annual index conference held by Huaxia Fund highlighted the evolution of index investment strategies among different investors, emphasizing the importance of cognitive upgrades and strategic iterations in enhancing investment experiences [1][9]. Group 1: Investor Profiles - Xiong Siyuan transitioned from a confident "alpha" seeker to a focus on index investment and diversified allocation after facing challenges in the A-share market, now aiming to create excess returns through index-enhanced products [2]. - Ding Ying's investment journey spans 20 years, evolving from passive investment to active management, adjusting her portfolio from 90% bonds to a mix of 60%-80% bonds and equity, reflecting her growing risk tolerance and understanding [3]. - Ren Shuai, a user of the Hongse Huojian app, represents a younger demographic, moving from traditional bank savings to exploring tech-focused investments through funds, still identifying as a beginner in the investment landscape [4]. Group 2: Core Strategies - Ding Ying employs a strategy of "contrarian timing and dynamic balance," advocating for buying undervalued assets and maintaining a diversified portfolio to mitigate risks, with a focus on 60%-80% allocation in government bonds as a stabilizing factor [5]. - Xiong Siyuan's framework includes "diversified allocation and index enhancement," emphasizing the importance of understanding risk tolerance and using tools to assess index valuations for informed investment decisions [6]. - Ren Shuai's approach is characterized by a focus on technology sectors, utilizing news events to identify investment signals and relying on community discussions to validate his investment strategies [7][8]. Group 3: Pitfalls to Avoid - Investors should be wary of "crowding traps," as highlighted by Xiong Siyuan's experience with excessive capital inflow into small-cap sectors leading to significant drawdowns, suggesting caution when popular funds are heavily promoted [9]. - Ding Ying warns against "mindless dollar-cost averaging," sharing her experience of incurring losses by continuing to invest in a declining market without trend analysis, advocating for a more strategic approach to investment timing [9]. - Xiong Siyuan advises caution with sector-specific indices due to their higher volatility compared to broad-based indices, recommending new investors limit their exposure to 5% of their portfolio [9]. Group 4: Investment Wisdom - Ding Ying emphasizes the importance of conscious investing, managing positions wisely, and taking profits during market exuberance [9]. - Xiong Siyuan suggests finding a set of long-term appreciating assets and maintaining a balanced allocation while investing during market dips [9]. - Ren Shuai encourages investors to discover their own "upward indices" to foster a positive investment journey [9].

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：做配置的小雪 去年年底，我用雪球的三分法，创建了一个资产配置方案。今年过半，业绩已经6.23%了。（截至 25.6.25，采用资金加权收益率） 虽然不知道跑赢了多少主动管理型的基金经理，但是妥妥跑赢基准指数以及沪深300了。 经过半年多的实践，我发现， 普通投资者自己DIY资产配置方案，还是有很多优势的，比单押主动 基金靠谱多了。 优势1：投资范围没有限制 基金投资范围，会受到合同约束。 比如，股票型基金，不能投资商品，商品型基金，不能投资股票和债券，A股基金不能投资美 股，QDII基金不能投资A股等等。 此外，基金经理的奖金也会和规模挂钩，并且会面临短期业绩排名压力，这迫使他们为了追求短 期收益，而做出频繁调整策略、高换手、追涨热门题材等不理性行为，来吸引更多客户投资。 但是，经济发展是有周期的。当经济上行时，股票表现更好；当经济下行时，又利好债券；当出 现风险事件时，又轮到了黄金表演。此外，不同地区发展阶段也不同，比如前几年美股大牛市， A、港股惨遭大回调。 这就导致，基金经理因为重仓某一类资产，而难以长期穿越经济 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall real estate market is showing signs of stabilization and weak recovery in Q2 2025, with new home supply and demand both increasing month-on-month but decreasing year-on-year, indicating significant supply constraints [1][2][6]. Supply - In Q2 2025, new home supply increased month-on-month but decreased by 20% year-on-year, with significant supply constraints remaining [2][6]. - Only first-tier cities saw a notable increase in supply, while second and third-tier cities continued to experience low supply levels, with the largest declines in the latter [4][6]. - The supply situation varied by city, with hotspots like Shanghai, Shenzhen, Chengdu, and Hangzhou experiencing increased supply, while weaker second and third-tier cities like Foshan and Huizhou saw significant declines [6][7]. Transaction Volume - The real estate market showed a weak recovery in Q2 2025, with a slight month-on-month increase in new home transactions, but a year-on-year decline [7][10]. - First-tier cities maintained strong transaction volumes, with cities like Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen showing positive year-on-year growth, while second and third-tier cities experienced mixed results [10][11]. - Overall, the transaction volume is expected to decline in Q3 compared to Q2, but the year-on-year decline may narrow due to last year's low base [27]. Second-hand Transactions - In Q2 2025, second-hand home transactions remained high but showed a downward trend month-on-month, with cities like Shenzhen and Xi'an experiencing significant year-on-year growth [11][14]. - Some third-tier cities also saw substantial growth due to low base effects from the previous year, while others remained in a correction phase [14][15]. Housing Prices - New home prices in 70 cities showed a narrowing year-on-year decline, with first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen maintaining high prices, while third-tier cities experienced steady price corrections [15][16]. - The price dynamics are influenced by the introduction of high-quality new properties, which have stabilized and slightly increased prices in certain markets [15][16]. Inventory - As of May 2025, the inventory of new homes was 463 million square meters, showing a downward trend due to supply constraints and stable transaction volumes [18][21]. - The inventory turnover period is stabilizing at around 25 months, with first-tier cities showing a significant decrease in inventory risks [21][23]. Outlook - The supply is expected to decline in Q3 2025, with first-tier cities remaining the focus for new launches due to strong demand [25][26]. - The overall market is anticipated to continue its weak recovery, with significant differentiation between core first and second-tier cities and weaker third-tier cities [27].

Group 1 - The Australian Taxation Office (ATO) reported a total tax revenue of AUD 577.4 billion for the fiscal year 2022-23, an increase of AUD 47.3 billion from the previous year [1] - Personal income tax accounted for AUD 298 billion, representing 51.6% of total tax revenue, making it the largest source of tax income [1] - Among high-income earners, 139 individuals out of 24,350 with annual incomes exceeding AUD 1 million managed to avoid paying any personal income tax through various deductions [1] Group 2 - Company tax revenue for the fiscal year was AUD 140 billion, contributing 24.2% to the total tax revenue [2] - Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenue amounted to AUD 81.7 billion, accounting for 14.2% of total tax revenue [2] - Taxpayers claimed AUD 28.3 billion in work-related deductions, with the most common being related to employment expenses [2] Group 3 - Revenue from tobacco, fuel, and alcohol excise taxes contributed AUD 25.4 billion, while superannuation tax revenue added AUD 24 billion [2] - The Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT), Luxury Car Tax (LCT), and Wine Equalisation Tax (WET) collectively generated only AUD 4.2 billion, less than 1% of total tax revenue [5] - Surgeons remain the highest-paid profession in Australia, with an average annual income of AUD 472,475 [5] - The wealthiest area in Australia is the eastern suburbs of Sydney, specifically postcode 2027, with an average income of AUD 279,712 [5]

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 小玄fire计划 来源：雪球 市场曾给我三次痛击 ： 弯路一 ： 投机陷阱 2024年国庆 " 924行情 " 中 ， 被媒体渲染的 " 牛市 " 裹挟入场 ， 节后首日追高即深套 。 血 泪教训 ： 消息驱动的投机永远是击鼓传花的游戏 。 弯路二 ： 高估加仓 美股定投初期小赚后 ， 2024年9月起大额定投重仓投入 。 尽管标普500 、 纳指100持续高位 震荡 ， 仍盲目相信 " 长牛神话 " ， 直至2025年4月关税黑天鹅两日暴跌10%被迫割肉 。 警醒 ： 无视估值的安全边际就是悬崖边跳舞 。 弯路三 ： 伪分散之殇 指数化 →告别个股黑箱 ， 拥抱市场β收益 ； 攻守兼备 ： 15%A股红利低波+15%A股现金流指数 （ a股稳健资产 ） 全球对冲 ： 15%标普500+15%纳指100 （ 美股核心资产 ） 危机缓冲 ： 8%黄金ETF+2%原油期货 （ 抗通胀黑天鹅 ） 曾以为持有十几只基金就是分散风险 ， 结果持仓高度同质化 ， 暴涨暴跌如过山车 。 直到学习 资产相关性理论才顿悟 ： 真正的分 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月27日 宏观经济专题研究 "投资驱动型增长"正在走向效率悬崖 增长引擎的动态平衡原理。经济增长的根本动力源于投资与消费的动态平 衡。投资直接创造新供给，拉动增长；消费则代表需求，是企业利润的源泉， 并通过支撑利润间接拉动投资和增长。从分配角度看，GDP 分为资本收入和 非资本收入（劳动报酬+税收）。资本收入集中在少数人手中，人均占有量 大但边际消费倾向低，是投资/供给的主要来源；非资本收入人群人均占有 量小但边际消费倾向高，构成消费/需求的主力。这导致投资与消费天然存 在此消彼长的张力，其背后是资本与非资本收入分配的博弈。若分配过度向 资本倾斜，短期内虽刺激投资，但会压制消费需求，消费疲软进而侵蚀企业 利润，最终反噬投资本身。因此，可持续增长依赖于投资与消费比例的协调 平衡，而非一味扩大投资。 中国投资效率衰减的实证链条。关键的会计恒等式（资本收入占比 = 资本 回报率 r * (资本存量 K / GDP)）揭示了核心关系：在资本收入占比稳定 的平衡状态下，资本回报率（r）与资本产出比（K/GDP）呈反比。其中，K/GDP 是衡量投资效率的关键指标：其上升意味着资本存量增速快 ...

证券研究报告 煤炭开采 行业深度报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 27 日 证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邹佩轩 SAC：S1350524070004 zoupeixuan01@huayuanstock.com 邱达治 SAC：S1350525050001 qiudazhi@huayuanstock.com 联系人 煤炭行业中期策略报告 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——成本倒挂煤价筑底，供需再平衡龙头先启航 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 煤炭成本刚性上涨，煤价跌破完全成本，行业或已至底部。煤炭行业常以北方港口 下水煤价格跟踪煤价涨跌，为直观对比煤炭成本与价格标杆，我们选取中国神华、 陕西煤业、中煤能源三家代表我国晋陕蒙动力煤主产地资源禀赋的龙头上市煤企， 根据其较为一致的成本核算准则及较长期的历史财报数据，结合行业公允的运输成 本，测算出 2014-2024 年行业的完全成本及现金成本。据 ...

Summary of EON Resources Inc. Special Conference Call Company and Industry - **Company**: EON Resources Inc. - **Industry**: Oil and Gas, specifically focusing on the Permian Basin Key Points and Arguments 1. **Acquisition Announcement**: EON Resources has acquired the South Justice Field in the Permian Basin, New Mexico, for a total of 1 million shares of Class A common stock, valued at approximately $500,000 in cash [5][7][20]. 2. **Current Production and Cash Flow**: The field is currently cash flowing $100,000 per month, translating to an annual net cash flow of $1.2 million [8][20]. 3. **Production Potential**: The field had a production of 50 barrels per day before acquisition, which was doubled to 100 barrels per day through minor repairs. EON aims to increase production to between 250 to 400 barrels per day within a quarter [9][11][19][66]. 4. **Field Characteristics**: The South Justice Field consists of approximately 5,400 acres with 208 producing and injection wells. The field has a history of low decline rates and significant oil reserves, with an estimated 15 million barrels recoverable through reactivation and drilling [13][14][18][26]. 5. **Comparison with Existing Assets**: The acquisition increases EON's oil in place by 20% and acreage in the Permian by 33%, enhancing overall production by 10% immediately and 20% in the near term [27][26]. 6. **Operational Strategy**: EON plans to reactivate idle wells and utilize existing infrastructure to minimize costs. The company expects minimal impact on general and administrative expenses [8][24][27]. 7. **Market Valuation**: The purchase price is considered reasonable compared to market values for similar fields, with estimates of $20,000 to $50,000 per flowing barrel for more developed fields [20][21]. 8. **Future Drilling Potential**: EON sees potential for horizontal drilling in the South Justice Field, similar to their existing Grayburg Jackson Field, which could further enhance production [14][26]. 9. **Economic Outlook**: The company anticipates needing oil prices around $60 per barrel to be attractive for drilling, with a potential range of $60 to $80 in the future [64][66]. 10. **Funding and Financial Health**: EON is optimistic about securing funding to support operations and retire existing debts, with ongoing discussions with multiple investors [49][52][66]. Other Important Content 1. **Regulatory Compliance**: The acquisition included assurances regarding compliance with state regulations for plugging and abandonment of non-productive wells [85]. 2. **Market Dynamics**: The call highlighted the impact of external factors, such as geopolitical events and U.S. oil policy, on oil prices and drilling activity [60][66]. 3. **Investor Sentiment**: There is a noted concern among investors regarding stock performance, with management emphasizing the long-term value of the acquisition and operational strategy [50][66]. 4. **Chevron Relationship**: EON has a strong relationship with Chevron, which is beneficial for pricing and sales of oil produced from the South Justice Field [96][102]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of EON Resources Inc.'s strategic acquisition and operational plans in the oil and gas sector.