| 《八》国投期货 | | 农产品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月29日 | | 豆一 | ななな | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆粕 | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕榈油 | ななな | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 菜粕 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | | | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 菜油 | ☆☆☆ | | | 玉米 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆★ | | 【三一】 国产大豆主力合约价格呈现下跌势头,在假期前呈现城仓操作。目前调节储备大豆仍在往市场上投放。进口大 豆.方面五一节后油厂会陆续开机,5-7月份的大豆到港里庞大。所以短期夹注意进口大豆方面供应格局有一个先 紧后松的切换。短期继续关注政策端的表现以及大豆供需面的变动。 【大豆&豆粕】 豆瓣减仓,价格下跌,临近长假,注意控制风险。近端的豆粕受注意 ...

【4 月 28 日 PVC 期货价格低位运行，现货市场稳中略涨】4 月 28 日，PVC 期货价格维持低位，V2509 报收 4989 元/吨，涨 0.28%，成交量 72 万手，环比提高 10 万手，持仓量 91 万手，环比下降 3 万手。 现货方面，华东地区电石法 PVC 五型报价在 4740 - 4860 元/吨，贸易商出货清淡，下游制品企业拿货 以刚需低价为主且存观望情绪。 成本方面，近期部分电石装置检修，五一假期临近下游企业备货积 极，电石价格触底反弹，4 月 28 日内蒙古乌海地区电石价格为 2500 元/吨，环比提高 50 元/吨。 供应 方面，上周部分 PVC 装置恢复运行，行业供应小幅回升，截至 4 月 25 日，PVC 行业周度开工率为 78.63%，环比提高 1.28 个百分点，周度产量为 45.94 万吨，环比提高 0.75 万吨，增幅 1.66%，PVC 行 业集中检修期延续，检修力度放缓。 需求方面，上周 PVC 价格再跌刺激部分投机需求，截至 4 月 25 日，PVC 生产企业周度预售订单量为 60.2 万吨，环比提高 6.02%，临近五一假期，下游制品企业放假 预期增多，截至 ...

Group 1: Rubber Market - Domestic rubber futures 2509 contract decreased by 0.27% to 14,730 CNY/ton, with the 5-9 month spread widening to 180 CNY/ton [1] - Supply expectations are rising as the new cutting season approaches, while tire manufacturers face operational pressure ahead of the May Day holiday [1] Group 2: Methanol Market - Domestic methanol futures 2509 contract increased by 0.96% to 2,310 CNY/ton, with the 5-9 month spread narrowing to 79 CNY/ton [1] - Methanol production is on the rise, with weekly output averaging 1.899 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 210,100 tons [1] Group 3: Oil Market - Domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract rose by 0.83% to 498.0 CNY/barrel, with market sentiment showing mixed signals [1] - U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.46 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 360,000 barrels per day [1] Group 4: Tire Industry - The operating load of domestic tire manufacturers for all-steel tires was 65.79%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.65% [1] - The operating load for semi-steel tires was 72.36%, down 1.84 percentage points week-on-week and significantly down 8.64 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 5: Automotive Industry - In March, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.006 million and 2.915 million units, respectively, with month-on-month growth of 42.9% and 37% [1] - In Q1, cumulative automobile production and sales were 7.561 million and 7.470 million units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 14.5% and 11.2% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The international crude oil settlement prices have experienced a decline, with both WTI and Brent crude oil futures showing significant drops in their respective prices [1] Price Movement - As of April 28, the price of light crude oil futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $0.97, closing at $62.05 per barrel, representing a decrease of 1.54% [1] - The June delivery price of Brent crude oil futures decreased by $1.01, closing at $65.86 per barrel, reflecting a decline of 1.51% [1]

纽约期金突破3350美元/盎司，日内涨1.56%。 ...

美国天然气期货日内大涨6%，现报3.30美元/百万英热。 ...

美国天然气期货日内大涨6.00%，现报3.303美元/百万英热。 ...

金信期货日刊 2 0 2 5 / 0 4 / 2 8 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 生猪期货价格暴跌原因分析 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 2025年4月24日，生猪期货市场出现暴跌行情，主力2509合约日线呈大阴线形态并伴随长下影线， 2511合约也大幅下跌，日内最低价格13685元/吨 ，接近前期震荡区间下沿的两次低点。这一暴跌现 象主要由供需和市场情绪三方面因素导致。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 从供应端来看，能繁母猪与新生仔猪数量均显示未来生猪供应量充足。官方数据显示去年12月底前 能繁母猪数量持续上升，意味着今年10月底之前生猪理论出栏量将持续处于上升趋势当中。今年3月 份新生仔猪数量上升至接近2023年的高位水平，一季度新生仔猪对应7-8-9月份生猪出栏，相应的9 月合约面临的出栏压力较大。同时，今年2 - 4月生猪压栏及二次育肥带来的体重增加和供应后移， 虽能补充二季度供应，但之后供应压力会进一步加 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing a stable upward trend, with price increases ranging from 5 to 30 yuan per ton, driven by supply dynamics and market sentiment [2][5]. Price Summary - Light soda ash prices in East China are between 1300-1500 yuan/ton, while heavy soda ash prices are between 1420-1500 yuan/ton [2]. - In Central China, light soda ash prices range from 1250-1390 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash prices are between 1300-1450 yuan/ton [2]. - The market shows no significant price changes in various regions, with some minor fluctuations noted [1]. Market Dynamics - The trading atmosphere is described as moderate, with a strong sense of observation among market participants [2]. - Supply remains stable but under pressure, with some companies undergoing maintenance, which provides limited support to the market [2]. - The cost of production is slightly alleviated due to a minor decline in coal and raw salt prices, although the overall cost support remains limited [2]. Futures Market - On April 25, the main soda ash futures contract opened at 1376 yuan/ton and closed at 1365 yuan/ton, reflecting a daily decline of 0.29% [3]. - The trading volume increased, indicating a rise in market activity despite the price drop [3]. - Market sentiment is influenced by insufficient policy guidance following important meetings, but supply disruptions are expected to provide some support [3]. Short-term Outlook - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a narrow range of fluctuations in the short term, with pre-holiday stocking boosting market sentiment [5]. - As May approaches, planned maintenance by some companies is anticipated to reduce operational rates, leading to potential supply constraints [5]. - The actual impact of maintenance on supply will be a key focus moving forward [5].

Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 国泰君安期货·能源化工 天然橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年4月27日 CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 基本面数据 03 操作建议 04 行业资讯 期货价格 基差与月差 其他价差 替代品价格 资金动向 供给 需求 库存 操作建议 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1.【泰国一季度天胶、混合胶合计出口量同比增13.6%】最新数据显示，2025年一季度，泰国出口天然橡胶（不含复合橡胶）合计为79.8万吨，同比增2%。其中， 标胶合计出口46.5万吨，同比降4%；烟片胶出口10.7万吨，同比增10%；乳胶出口22.1万吨，同比增12%。一季度，出口到中国天然橡胶合计为37.2万吨，同比增 33%。其中，标胶出口到中国合计为23.2万吨，同比增11%；烟片胶出口到中国合计为3.9万吨，同比大增290%；乳胶出口到中国合计为10万吨，同比增6 ...