----国信期货螺纹钢周报 2025年6月8日 国信期货研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 螺纹钢期货行情回顾 2 期货市场环境：宏观、比价、基差 3 螺纹钢供需概况 4 后市展望 国信期货研究所 第 一部 国信期货研究所 原料反弹 带动成材运行重心上移 P a rt 分 1 螺纹钢期货行情回顾 1.1 近期重要信息概览 国信期货研究所 经济数据 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1. 国家统计局数据显示， 1—4月份，全国房地产开发投资27730亿元，同比下降10.3%（按可比口径计算，详见附注6）；其中，住宅投资 21179亿元，下降9.6%。1—4月份，房地产开发企业房屋施工面积620315万平方米，同比下降9.7%。其中，住宅施工面积431937万平方米， 下降10.1%。房屋新开工面积17836万平方米，下降23.8%。其中，住宅新开工面积13164万平方米，下降22.3%。房屋竣工面积15648万平方米， 下降16.9%。其中，住宅竣工面积11424万平方米，下降16.8%。 1—4月份，新建商品房销售面积28262万平方 ...

Group 1: Policy Source - The funding for the consumer goods replacement policy comes from fiscal funds, with central and local governments collaborating to contribute [3] Group 2: Fund Flow - Unlike traditional subsidy methods, the consumer goods replacement policy directly allocates funds to local governments, allowing for quicker delivery of benefits to consumers [4] Group 3: Claim Process - Consumers can claim subsidies through both online and offline channels, with specific procedures for each [5][10] Group 4: Regional Funding Distribution - The central government and local governments share the subsidy costs in a 9:1 ratio, with varying central government contribution rates across eastern (85%), central (90%), and western (95%) regions [7] - Local governments allocate matching funds based on central funding distribution, considering factors like population and economic activity to optimize support [7] Group 5: Consumer Experience - For example, consumers can receive a 15% subsidy on a smartphone priced at 3000 yuan, saving 450 yuan when using the appropriate payment method [9] - In Changsha, consumers can claim a subsidy through a mobile app and receive a discount at participating stores [10] Group 6: Fund Management and Oversight - Strengthening fund supervision and ensuring the safe use of funds has become a priority for local governments as the subsidy amounts increase [13] - Various measures are in place to ensure compliance and prevent fraud, including real-name management for applications and cross-departmental oversight [14]

Core Viewpoint - The recent suspension of the national subsidy for the "old-for-new" consumer goods program has sparked significant discussion on social media, particularly in Chongqing, where a new round of subsidies is expected to be announced in early June [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Updates - The Chongqing Municipal Commerce Commission confirmed that the second phase of the "old-for-new" subsidy policy is being drafted, with details on subsidy standards, categories, and application methods to be provided in an official document expected in early June [1]. - The announcement on the Chongqing consumption page indicated that funds for 27 categories of green smart home appliances and home renovation subsidies have been exhausted, leading to the suspension of consumer vouchers and eligibility code applications on June 2 and 3 [1]. Group 2: Impact and Scope - Since the launch of the new "old-for-new" policy in early 2025, it has directly stimulated over 6 billion yuan in consumption, with government subsidies exceeding 1.2 billion yuan, benefiting over one million consumers [2]. - The policy covers not only traditional appliances like refrigerators and washing machines but also includes innovative categories such as water dispensers, air purifiers, and projectors, with a maximum subsidy of 2,000 yuan per item and a subsidy rate of up to 20% [2]. - The initiative also extends to other sectors, including automobiles, home renovation, electric bicycles, and digital products, creating a multi-category synergy effect [2]. Group 3: Consumer Guidance - The Chongqing Municipal Commerce Commission advises consumers to be cautious of unofficial information regarding the "national subsidy policy" circulating on social media, urging them to rely on official sources like the "Yukuaiban" app or the Chongqing Municipal Commerce Commission's website for accurate updates [2].

Core Points - The "National Subsidy" program for replacing old consumer goods, particularly in the home appliance and mobile digital product sectors, is facing a potential suspension, causing significant discussion on social media [1][4][17] - The program is scheduled to end on December 31, 2025, but may conclude earlier if the subsidy fund is depleted [3][4] - Various regions, including Jiangsu and Chongqing, have already reported suspensions or limitations on the availability of subsidies, indicating a tightening of the program [6][11][16] Group 1: Subsidy Program Status - The "National Subsidy" program is experiencing suspensions in multiple regions, with reports of halted applications for subsidies in places like Jiangsu and Guangdong [13][17] - In Chongqing, the first phase of subsidy funds was exhausted by June 3, leading to a pause in applications, with a second phase still under development [16] - The program's funding is limited, and consumers are advised to act quickly to secure subsidies before they run out [4][8] Group 2: Impact on Sales and Consumer Behavior - In Jiangxi province, the subsidy program has expanded its categories from 8 to 16, including new items like microwaves and dishwashers, resulting in significant sales [20] - As of June 5, 199.27 million units of home appliances have been sold under the subsidy program, leading to a total consumer subsidy of 13.07 billion yuan and sales of 68.26 billion yuan [20] - The mobile and 3C product segment also saw substantial sales, with 138.88 million units sold and a consumer subsidy of 4.94 billion yuan, driving sales of 38.5 billion yuan [20]

"可享受国家补贴""国补再减15%"……如今，无论是线上店铺，还是线下卖场，百姓在购买消费品时， 都可常见这些标语。 去年以来，我国持续实施消费品以旧换新政策，实打实的"真金白银"惠及消费者，激发消费活力。这 些"国补"资金是如何抵达消费者的？ 今年以来，财政等相关部门加快推进超长期特别国债的发行使用。截至目前，2025年超长期特别国债已 下达两批到地方，共计1620亿元。 从地方来看，各省份根据中央资金分配情况按比例安排配套资金，强化资金保障，优化资金管理。 "山东多措并举，多渠道筹措资金，认真落实地方15%的配套要求，切实提升对消费品以旧换新的资金 保障能力。"山东省财政厅有关处室负责人说。 这位负责人介绍，在省级层面的资金分配上，综合考虑常住人口、地区生产总值、汽车保有量等因素， 合理确定对各市支持资金规模，向人口多、经济活跃、消费潜力大的地区倾斜。 图为位于山东省泰安市的三源家电线下卖场里展示的"国补"政策。新华社记者申铖 摄 资金从哪来？ 根据去年和今年的政府工作报告及相关部署，实施消费品以旧换新政策的相关资金来自财政资金，中央 和地方都有"出资"。 具体来看，家电以旧换新、汽车报废更新等领域补贴资 ...

Group 1 - The "618" shopping festival is experiencing significant sales growth, driven by national subsidy policies that stimulate consumer spending [1][2] - Major e-commerce platforms report impressive sales figures, with categories like smartphones, computers, and smart devices seeing over 100% year-on-year growth [1] - Brands such as Huawei, Xiaomi, and Midea have reported sales increases exceeding 200% during the initial phase of the "618" event [1][2] Group 2 - The participation in national subsidies has led to a 283% increase in total sales for home appliances and digital products compared to last year's "Double 11" event [2] - Live streaming sales, particularly in small appliances, have become a significant growth driver, with emerging domestic brands performing exceptionally well [2] - The demand for air conditioners and cleaning appliances is expected to surge in the second quarter, with intensified competition in these categories [2] Group 3 - The continuation of national subsidies is anticipated to positively impact domestic demand for home appliances, benefiting leading brands with strong financial capabilities and comprehensive distribution channels [3] - The implementation of "old for new" policies has significantly boosted consumer spending, with substantial sales figures reported in various regions [3][4] - As of early June, the "old for new" program has led to the sale of millions of home appliances and digital products, contributing to a notable increase in overall sales [3][4]

Group 1 - In May, the average prices of 54 types of essential consumer goods in Mengyin County showed 11 increases, 21 stable, and 22 decreases, resulting in an overall decline of 4.23% compared to the previous month [1] - For meat, poultry, and egg products, 1 item increased, 3 remained stable, and 4 decreased, with an average decline of 0.42%. Notably, beef rose to 30 yuan/kg, an increase of 5.26%, while pork products saw declines ranging from 0.95% to 3.42% [1] - In the aquatic products category, 2 items increased and 2 remained stable, with an average increase of 5.81%. Live crucian carp and carp prices rose by 6.25% and 16.98%, respectively [1] Group 2 - In the vegetable category, 3 items increased and 14 decreased, leading to an average decline of 13.27%. Prices for cabbage, rapeseed, and carrots increased by 2.7%, 8.2%, and 5.56%, while other vegetables saw significant declines, with some dropping over 25% [2] - For fruits, 1 item increased, 1 remained stable, and 2 decreased, resulting in an average decline of 9.79%. Apple prices rose by 25.81%, while watermelon and banana prices fell by 48.67% and 16.28%, respectively [2]

Core Insights - The rapid growth of the domestic brand Duo Wei in the highly competitive sanitary napkin market has attracted significant attention, showcasing a new brand's ability to break through in a saturated market [1] - Duo Wei achieved a remarkable sales figure of 54.58 million yuan within just 14 days of launching on Douyin, ranking third in the monthly sales leaderboard for the category [1] - The brand's explosive growth highlights both the effectiveness of its product positioning and marketing strategy, as well as the challenges it faces in supply chain management [5] Sales Performance - Duo Wei's sales performance on Douyin indicates a strong market impact, as evidenced by its rapid ascent to the top tier of the market, traditionally dominated by international giants and local leaders [1] - The brand's official flagship store implemented a limited release strategy, offering only 5,000 units daily, which sold out within 10 seconds, reflecting high consumer demand [4][5] Supply Chain Challenges - The overwhelming consumer demand has exposed a significant gap between Duo Wei's supply chain capabilities and the rapid market growth, leading to operational pressures [5] - The brand's ability to expand production capacity efficiently while maintaining quality control is crucial to addressing current supply-demand imbalances [6] Consumer Engagement and Brand Strategy - Duo Wei's focus on consumer rights, such as "active price refunds," indicates a commitment to user experience even amid rapid growth, reflecting an awareness of building long-term brand value [6] - The brand's success illustrates the potential for new consumer brands to leverage emerging channels like Douyin and meet specific consumer needs through differentiated services [6] Market Outlook - The ongoing high demand for Duo Wei products creates strong growth momentum, while the brand's investments in production capacity and service quality will determine its ability to sustain this momentum [6] - The dual challenges of maintaining growth and managing operational efficiency will be critical for Duo Wei's long-term competitiveness in the market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The green smart home appliance subsidy program in Chongqing has been suspended due to the exhaustion of available funds, impacting consumer purchasing behavior and the home appliance market [1][4][10]. Group 1: Policy and Funding - The "National Subsidy" policy for green smart home appliances was implemented to promote the replacement of old appliances with new ones, with a total of 300 billion yuan allocated for 2025, doubling the amount from 2024 [4][5]. - The funding is distributed to local governments based on a 9:1 cost-sharing principle, with varying central government support ratios across different regions [5][6]. - As of June 3, the first round of subsidy funds in Chongqing has been fully utilized, leading to the suspension of the subsidy program until further notice [1][4]. Group 2: Market Impact - The suspension of the subsidy program has led to a significant impact on home appliance sales, particularly during the 618 shopping festival, with reports of increased foot traffic and sales prior to the suspension [10]. - Chongqing's implementation of the subsidy program has resulted in 42.88 billion yuan in subsidies claimed, benefiting 3.4 million consumers and driving 288 billion yuan in sales for key products [9][10]. - The overall demand for consumer goods under the old-for-new policy has been strong, with many regions reporting high utilization rates of the initial subsidy funds [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The "old-for-new" policy for consumer goods is not a standalone initiative but is accompanied by a series of measures such as easing access, reducing restrictions, and optimizing regulations, which collectively enhance its effectiveness and stimulate economic growth [1][5]. Group 1: Policy Impact on Consumer Behavior - As of May 31, the number of applications for the automobile "old-for-new" subsidy reached 4.12 million, indicating a robust response from consumers [1]. - In April, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 51.5%, an increase of over 7 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1]. - The policy has led to a significant increase in the sales of high-end digital products, with 76% of new purchases falling within the price range of 2000 to 6000 yuan [2]. Group 2: Economic and Market Dynamics - The "old-for-new" initiative has created a market space worth trillions of yuan, as the total number of automobiles exceeds 300 million and major household appliances exceed 3 billion units [1]. - The sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 38.8% year-on-year in April, leading all categories of consumer goods [4]. - The total subsidies distributed to consumers in the first five months of this year amounted to approximately 1.75 billion, driving related sales to 1.1 trillion yuan [4]. Group 3: Policy Expansion and Support - In 2024, the policy will expand to include additional categories of household appliances and digital products, with subsidies for new energy vehicle replacements increased to a maximum of 15,000 yuan [3]. - The funding support for the "old-for-new" initiative has reached 300 billion yuan, doubling from the previous year, with over 160 billion yuan already allocated by the end of April [3]. - The policy's flexibility and adaptability are evident as local governments enhance subsidy standards and optimize participation details to maximize consumer benefits [3]. Group 4: Long-term Economic Outlook - International investment banks have raised their growth forecasts for China's economy in 2025, attributing part of this optimism to the positive effects of the "old-for-new" policy on consumption and domestic demand [5].