02 美股已经收复近一半失地 在中国和美国同意暂时降低彼此产品的关税后，全球风险资产明显上涨，同时黄金回落。 由于对特朗普引发的全球贸易战的担忧，标普500指数自2月份的峰值一度累计下跌了近19%。不 过，随着美国政府开始与其他国家进行贸易谈判，该指数目前已收复了约一半的失地。 不过，摩根士丹利策略师警告称，尽管投资者对美国股市的情绪正在改善，但现在就解除警报还为 时过早。 01 还有两大利好条件未实现 来源|财联社 5月13日，在中美发表日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明后，美股周一大幅飙升，标普500指数一夜大涨 3.26%。 大摩分析师迈克尔·威尔逊（Michael Wilson）领导的研究团队在周一发布报告称，要想让美股取 得更为持久的涨势，需要同时达成四个条件，但眼下，对于美股前景来说，只有两个利好条件取得 了进展——"围绕与中国达成贸易协议的乐观情绪，以及业绩修正企稳。" 他们在报告中写道："我们清单上的另外两个条件—— 美联储更加鸽派，以及在美国没有经济衰退 数据的情况下，10年期国债收益率低于4% ——尚未成为现实。" 上周，美联储主席鲍威尔重申了美联储在放松货币政策方面的观望态度，而10年期美债收益率目 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that mainstream internet companies exhibit strong performance resilience, with expectations for continued high resilience in the first half of 2025, despite potential adjustments in the second half due to changes in tariff policies [1] Group 1: Performance Outlook - Internet companies are expected to maintain strong performance resilience in the first half of 2025 [1] - The worst-case scenario for performance has likely already occurred, suggesting a stabilization in outlook [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - Streaming, gaming, and local services sectors are less affected by tariffs and are seen as safe havens in the short to medium term [1] - If tariff negotiations improve, cyclical sectors such as online advertising, e-commerce, and consumer finance may experience a reversal in performance expectations [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on aggressive selections related to tariff and policy reversals [1] - Defensive selections for the short to medium term are also advised [1] - Attention should be given to potential deregulation targets in the future [1]

金十数据5月13日讯，招商宏观研报称，中美关税谈判取得积极成果，叠加5月7日推出的支持稳市场稳 预期的一揽子金融政策，预计国内市场风险偏好将持续回暖，人民币汇率继续保持在7.10-7.3区间。贝 森特表示7月4日左右将拿出"减税法案2.0"，中美关税谈判取得积极成果叠加积极的财政态度或令美 股、美元继续受到一定提振。 招商宏观：预计人民币汇率继续保持在7.10-7.3区间 ...

美股三大指数均大幅收涨， 纳指涨4.35%， 标普500指数涨3.26%，均创3月3日以来收盘新高； 道指涨 2.81%，创3月27日以来收盘新高。 ...

智通财经5月13日电，美股延续涨势，标普500指数涨超3%，纳指涨超4%，道指涨2.58%。 ...

美股期货走高，纳斯达克100指数期货涨4%，道指期货涨2.44%，标普500指数期货涨3.1%。 ...

智通财经5月12日电，美股期货走高，纳斯达克100指数期货涨3.5%，道指期货涨2.2%，标普500指数期 货涨近3%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - U.S. stock index futures have expanded gains, with the Nasdaq 100 index futures rising by 2% [1] Group 1 - The Nasdaq 100 index futures show a significant increase, indicating positive market sentiment [1]

智通财经5月12日电，美股股指期货涨幅扩大，其中，纳斯达克100指数期货涨2%。 ...

Group 1 - The recent market rebound is seen as the end of the 2025 bear market, but this bull market will be characterized by slow and volatile progress rather than sharp increases [1] - The strategist Julian Emanuel compares the current market turmoil to the panic during the 1998 Long-Term Capital Management crisis, noting that the rapid recovery seen then is unlikely due to persistent inflation and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance [1] - The S&P 500 index is projected to reach 5600 by year-end, contingent on final tariff rates remaining between 15%-17%, which is still high compared to historical standards [1] Group 2 - A tactical investment strategy is recommended, focusing on buying quality laggard stocks in communication services, consumer discretionary, and technology sectors while reducing exposure to high-momentum stocks lacking profit support [1] - The team suggests using a September SPY options collar strategy to hedge risks, indicating a cautious approach to new investments [2] - Key sentiment indicators show signs of capitulation among investors, with 81% of clients believing a recession is imminent, which often signals a market turning point [2] Group 3 - The "anti-gravity stocks" list includes high-momentum, low-repurchase, and sentiment-sensitive stocks that are recommended for reduction at high prices, such as Tesla, Boeing, and Realty Income [3]