研究报告 油脂周报 市场平静，油脂震荡整理 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 农产品板块研究员：姚战旗 期货从业资格证号：F0205601 投资咨询资格证号：Z0000286 电话：13609351809 邮箱：445012260@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】： 7 榈油方面：马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）公布的数据显示，6 月马棕产量 169.2 万吨，出口 125.94 万吨，库存 203 万吨，整体 来看，6 月马棕出口明显低于预期，但 6 月库存环比略增。马棕 榈油上涨 2.78%。 报告日期：2025 年 07 月 14 星期一 豆油方面：本月将 2025/26 年度美国大豆产量下调 500 万蒲 至 43.35 亿蒲，同时维持大豆单产 52.5 蒲/英亩不变。将美国大 豆压榨上调 5000 万蒲至 25.4 亿蒲，因生物燃料行业的豆油需求 上升。将 2025/26 年度美国大豆出口下调 7000 万蒲至 17.45 亿蒲， 因国内需求增长，阿根廷和乌克兰出口强劲。美国大豆期末库存 上调 ...

Core Viewpoint - The power semiconductor market is deteriorating, leading to continuous capital outflow, exemplified by JS Foundry's bankruptcy filing due to challenges in customer acquisition and financial difficulties caused by the rise of Chinese competitors [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - JS Foundry, established in December 2022 with investments from the Japan Policy Investment Bank and others, has a total debt of 16.1 billion yen and employs approximately 550 people, with around 200 outsourced to other companies [1]. - The company acquired its Niigata factory from ON Semiconductor in 2022, which was originally built in 1984 by Sanyo Electric [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - JS Foundry's revenue has significantly declined from approximately 10 billion yen at its inception to an expected 2.6 billion yen in the fiscal year ending December 2024 [2]. - The company had anticipated growth driven by electric vehicle demand, but this growth has not materialized as expected, leading to a worsening market situation starting in the second half of 2023 [2]. Group 3: Industry Context - The rise of Chinese power semiconductor manufacturers has hindered JS Foundry's ability to develop new customers, contributing to its financial struggles [1][2]. - Other companies in the power semiconductor sector, such as Wolfspeed and Rohm, are also facing significant challenges, with Wolfspeed filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and Rohm expecting its first net loss in 11 years due to investments in this sector [2].

行情异动复盘 期货盯盘神器早盘分享：乙二醇引爆主买资金炸弹，价格短线走高；红枣出现新的空头堆积带，一图了解豆一、烧碱、玻璃等 热门品种出现的关键市场信号。 相关链接 10:49 成交额5.10亿 H:62.609 乙二醇主力合约在10:49出现主买资金炸弹，主买占 比达62.6%，推动价格迅速走高。 4094 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the ongoing positive trend in the A-share market, with a focus on mid-year performance reports and the theme of "anti-involution" [2][3] - China Shenhua reported a coal sales volume of 204.9 million tons in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 10.9% [8] - The railway sector completed fixed asset investments of 355.9 billion yuan in the first half of the year, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.5% [9] Group 2 - The article discusses the ongoing family trust dispute involving Wahaha's chairperson, Zong Fuli, who is being sued by her half-siblings for rights to a trust fund valued at 700 million USD each [5][6][7] - The white feather meat duck industry is undergoing a significant capacity reduction, with approximately 9 million breeding ducks eliminated, and an expectation that 30% of breeding duck enterprises may exit the market [11] - Perplexity's CEO indicated plans to utilize the Kimi K2 model for further training, highlighting advancements in AI capabilities [12]

Market Overview - As of 10:28 AM, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.48%, with a trading volume of 616.24 million shares and a transaction value of 731.22 billion yuan, representing a decrease of 3.87% compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors included: - Oil and Petrochemicals: Up 1.22% with a transaction value of 45.81 billion yuan, down 13.23% from the previous day, led by Bohui Co., which rose by 8.23% [1] - Banking: Up 1.15% with a transaction value of 193.09 billion yuan, down 8.16% from the previous day, led by Guiyang Bank, which increased by 3.94% [1] - Comprehensive: Up 1.10% with a transaction value of 12.42 billion yuan, up 2.11% from the previous day, led by Yueda Investment, which rose by 4.24% [1] - The sectors with the largest declines included: - Media: Down 1.44% with a transaction value of 240.31 billion yuan, up 15.18% from the previous day, led by *ST Zitian, which fell by 12.85% [2] - Real Estate: Down 1.28% with a transaction value of 118.87 billion yuan, down 12.61% from the previous day, led by Guangda Jiabao, which decreased by 8.24% [2] - Computer: Down 1.19% with a transaction value of 804.80 billion yuan, down 2.96% from the previous day, led by *ST Guandao, which fell by 12.95% [2]

截至2025年7月14日 10:29，中证A500指数上涨0.27%，成分股思源电气、科沃斯10cm涨停，石头科技 上涨8.49%，天华新能上涨7.89%，中金黄金上涨7.86%。A500ETF嘉实(159351) 冲击3连涨。 浙商证券进一步指出，当前市场走势良好、资金充沛，投资者情绪高涨，上证指数呈现"多头均线发 散"走势。这意味着指数即使步入回调格局，下跌空间也较为有限，中线仍有机会冲击去年10月8日前高 3674点。 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 涨跌幅 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600519 | 贵州茅台 | -0.16% | 4.40% | | 300750 | 宁德时代 | -1.55% | 2.95% | | 601318 | 中国平安 | 0.17% | 2.47% | | 600036 | 招商银行 | 0.72% | 2.38% | | 000333 | 美的集团 | 0.26% | 1.70% | | 006009 | 长江电力 | 0.63% | 1.51% | | 002594 | 比亚迪 | -1.42% | 1.49% | | 60 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 14 日 PP：现货维稳，成交清淡 张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 zhangchi4@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PP2509 | 7069 | -0.45% | 241,668 | -2015 | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | | | 价 差 | 09合约基差 | -19 | | -92 | | | | 09-01合约价差 | 1 5 | | 2 3 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 7000 - | 7100 | 7050 - | 7150 | | | 华东 | 7050 - | 7180 | 7020 - | 7180 | | | 华南 | 7050 - | 7220 | 7050 - | 7220 | 资料来源：卓创资讯，隆众资讯、国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 国内 PP 市场窄幅波动，幅度在 10 ...

农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/07/14 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/07/07 | - | 2320 | 2420 | 2460 | -6 | 10 423 | 2850 | 2950 | 165 | -69 | | 2025/07/08 | - | 2310 | 2420 | 2450 | -11 | 10 452 | 2850 | 2950 | 149 | -69 | | 2025/07/09 | - | 2310 | 2420 | 2440 | -9 | -10 458 | 2850 | 2950 | 148 | -68 | | 2025/07/10 | - | 2310 | 2414 | 2440 | -10 | -10 458 | 2850 | 2950 | 14 ...

值得一提的是，银行板块强势领涨并非A股独有的现象，2024年以来，美国、欧洲、日本等市场银行指 数亦相对大盘走出了明显的超额收益。究其原因，兴业证券认为，全球宏观环境的共性是重要因素。随 着全球经济步入低增长时期、政策和地缘不确定性加剧，银行股作为盈利稳定、分红可持续的"确定性 资产"，获得价值重估。 值得一提的是，上周五（7月11日）银行冲高回落，明显回调，资金借势大举增仓。以百亿顶流银行 ETF（512800）为例，上交所数据显示，其单日获资金大举净流入5．21亿元，上周资金连续5日增仓， 合计净流入超11亿元。 7月14日早盘，银行火速反弹，百亿顶流银行ETF（512800）场内价格现涨1．24%，开盘10分钟成交额 已近2亿元，交投活跃。 板块个股集体飘红，贵阳银行、民生银行双双涨逾3%，邮储银行、光大银行4股涨超2%，农业银行、 中国银行等十余股涨逾1%。 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 601997 | 贵阳银行 | 1 | 7.08 | 0.22 | ...

本次策略会汇聚了 证券 研究领域的顶尖 专家学者 ， 从当前宏观环境出发，聚焦热门行 业和景气板块，深度分析港股市场和创新药板块投资机会，与投资者共同探讨下半年投资策 略。 会场特设投资者保护与反洗钱专区，通过趣味投教视频和特色刊物宣传理性投资理念，用 实际行动践行 "金融为民"使命。 本次策略会为广大投资者和同业机构提供了交流的平台，会议吸引了超过 300名高净值 客户的参加，投资者积极互动，现场交流氛围热烈。申万宏源证券上海分公司将始终以客户 为中心，持续 为您带来更多 前沿观点和策略分享， 期待在下一场思想盛宴中与您再次相 聚！ 2025年 7 月 11 日， 申万宏源 证券 上海 分公司 "聚势待发·布局正当时"2025年夏季 策略会在 上海成功举办 。本次策略会旨在 抓住年中 关键时点， 深入分析市场行情节奏，为 投资者厘清下半年投资机会。 申万宏源证券上海 分公司负责人 为活动致开幕词。他深刻分析了上半年 A股行情特征， 结合2025年宏观政策导向展望下半年市场投资机会，并向长期以来陪伴申万宏源证券的投资 者表示感谢。 ...