Group 1 - Gold prices are currently experiencing narrow fluctuations, trading around $3302 per ounce, following a decline of over 1% on Tuesday, where it hit a low of $3287.06 per ounce, marking a one-week low [1] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to a combination of factors including optimistic trade negotiations, a strengthening dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and the complexities of Trump's tariff policies [1][4] - The market is closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which could influence future gold price movements [1] Group 2 - Recent optimistic signals from U.S. trade negotiations with major partners have reduced the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - President Trump warned of tariffs on 14 countries but postponed the effective date to August 1, allowing for further negotiations, which has led to market expectations for more lenient trade policies [3] - Japan and South Korea are actively seeking to mitigate the impact of tariffs through negotiations, with Japan focusing on concessions in the automotive sector while protecting agricultural interests [3] Group 3 - The global financial market's reaction to Trump's tariff policies has been cautious, with mixed performances in major indices, indicating investor hesitation amid trade negotiations [4] - Short-term pressures on gold prices are expected to continue due to optimistic trade sentiments, a strong dollar, and rising Treasury yields, while long-term uncertainties and inflation pressures may support gold [4] - Investors are advised to monitor developments in trade negotiations, monetary policy, and macroeconomic data to identify potential opportunities in gold prices [4]

针对美国将对日本征收25%关税问题，央视新闻报道称，日本首相石破茂表态强硬称"绝不妥协"！日本 首相石破茂表示，日本国内将团结一致守护国家利益，在不容妥协的事情上不会妥协，绝对不会牺牲日 本的农业。 新浪剛史警告称，日本现在处于更加不利的地位，可能被迫做出重大让步才能达成协议。随着本月参议 院选举临近，首相石破茂领导的自民党面临失去执政地位的风险，留给谈判的时间窗口正在缩小。 错失安倍外交遗产 新浪剛史在接受采访时表示，日本的顽固立场浪费了已故前首相安倍晋三的政治遗产。安倍在特朗普首 个总统任期内与其保持了良好关系。新浪剛史说道： 特朗普对日本抱有很高期望，因为安倍先生的缘故，他认为日本可以成为一个典范……我们 需要分析这种期望水平。 当特朗普对日本征收25%关税后，日本商界领袖罕见公开指责政府在对美贸易谈判中犯下"错误"，认为 坚持完全关税豁免的强硬立场让特朗普总统感到"被背叛"。 据媒体最新报道，三得利首席执行官、日本企业经营者协会会长新浪剛史（Takeshi Niinami）表示，如 果日本谈判代表展现更多灵活性，本可获得10%的基础关税，而非目前面临的25%惩罚性关税。 他批评日本"低估了特朗普的决心 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices have been under pressure, with spot gold trading around $3,292 after a drop of over 1% on Tuesday, reaching a low of $3,287.06 [1] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to optimistic trade negotiations, a stronger dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and the complexities of Trump's tariff policies [1][3] - The market's expectation of easing trade tensions has reduced the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, contributing to the price drop [1] - Trump's warning of tariffs on 14 countries, followed by a delay in implementation, has created a buffer for negotiations, leading to a more favorable market sentiment [1] - Japan and South Korea are actively negotiating to mitigate the impact of tariffs, which has further fueled risk appetite and pressured gold prices [1] Economic Indicators - The rise in the dollar is closely linked to expectations regarding the U.S. economy and monetary policy, with recent strong employment reports reducing bets on immediate rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached a two-week high of 4.435%, while the 30-year yield hit 4.974%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [3] - Trump's tariff policies are seen as a core variable in the financial markets, with the actual tariff rate estimated to have risen to 17.6%, the highest since 1934 [3] Market Outlook - In the short term, gold prices are expected to remain volatile due to the ongoing impact of Trump's tariffs and the expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit [4] - The market is advised to monitor the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and developments regarding Trump's tariffs for further insights [4] Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates a struggle for direction in gold prices, with a trading range between $3,290 and $3,350 [6] - Short-term movements have shown volatility, with prices testing lower levels around $3,286 before a slight rebound [6] Trading Strategy - Suggested long positions near $3,290 with a stop loss at $3,284 and a target around $3,320 to $3,345 [7] - Suggested short positions near $3,345 with a stop loss at $3,353 and a target around $3,323 to $3,303 [7]

FICC日报 | 2025-07-09 市场活跃度增加，指数回升 市场分析 关税政策前景不明。国内方面，国家主席在山西考察时强调，转型发展必须牢牢守住安全稳定底线。要着力稳就 业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，强化"一老一小"等重点民生保障服务。要强化社会治安整体防控，常态化开展扫 黑除恶，依法打击各类违法犯罪活动。海外方面，特朗普表示，关税将于2025年8月1日开始实施，可能未来两天 向欧盟发征税函。此外，特朗普在内阁会议上表示，他仍在计划对包括药品、半导体和金属在内的特定行业征收 关税，其中将对铜征收50%的关税，对药品征收高达200%的关税。美国商务部长卢特尼克称，铜关税将于7月稍晚 或8月1日到位。多国回应特朗普最新关税措施。巴西总统态度强硬，批评美方做法"错误且不负责任"。德国财长 警告称，若不能与美国达成公平的贸易协议，欧盟准备采取反制措施。 指数上涨。现货市场，A股三大指数走势分化，上证指数涨0.70%收于3497.48点，创业板指涨2.39%。行业方面， 板块指数涨多跌少，通信、电力设备、电力、建筑行业涨幅超2%，仅公用事业、银行行业小幅收跌。当日沪深两 市成交金额回升至1.45万亿元。海外市场，美 ...

油料日报 | 2025-07-09 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2509合约4104.00元/吨，较前日变化+25.00元/吨，幅度+0.61%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A09+196，较前日变化-25，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：周一，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货收盘下跌，其中基准期约收低2.7%，创两周新低，主要 原因是美国中西部天气改善对作物生长极为有利，市场对中美贸易谈判未如预期推进感到失望。截至收盘，大豆 期货下跌21美分到28.50美分不等，其中7月期约下跌24.50美分，报收1031.75美分/蒲式耳;8月期约下跌24美分，报 收1031.50美分/蒲式耳;11月期约下跌28.50美分，报收1020.75美分/蒲式耳。7月8日，黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋 白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报 价2.16元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日平； 黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国 标 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that President Trump has postponed the implementation of reciprocal tariffs from July 9 to August 1, aiming to gain more time for negotiations with major trading partners [1][2] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that negotiations with the EU, India, and other trade partners are making progress, which influenced Trump's decision to extend the deadline [1][2] - Despite the postponement, Trump has announced a 50% tariff on copper and up to 200% on pharmaceuticals, indicating a tactical shift in the U.S. trade strategy from immediate tariff implementation to using tariff threats as negotiation leverage [1][4] Group 2 - Trump initially favored automatic tariff implementation but changed his mind after hearing from Mnuchin that some agreements were close but required more time [2] - The postponement of tariffs has temporarily avoided direct escalation of trade conflicts but has opened a period of intense negotiations filled with uncertainty [3] - The U.S. government is also preparing to introduce new tariffs based on other legal authorities, with specific announcements regarding copper and pharmaceuticals expected soon [4][5]

＃summary＃ 行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 9 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货7月8日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2509 | 121.190 | 121.070 | 120.920 | 120.860 | -0.270 | -0.22 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Negotiations for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas are facing new obstacles, potentially delaying an agreement for several days [1] Group 1 - Israeli officials indicated that the negotiations with Hamas may take several days to reach an agreement [1] - A proposal by Israel to establish a "humanitarian city" in the southern Gaza city of Rafah has emerged as a new obstacle in the Doha ceasefire talks [1] - A Palestinian source involved in the negotiations stated that this issue is "hindering" the progress of the talks, with Hamas expressing strong opposition to the proposal [1]

Fundamental Analysis - Optimism in trade negotiations has weakened the appeal of safe-haven assets like gold, as President Trump postponed the implementation of tariffs on 14 countries to August 1, providing a three-week buffer for negotiations [3] - The strong US dollar, which rose 0.3% to 97.83, continues to exert pressure on gold prices, supported by positive expectations regarding the US economy and a strong June employment report [4] - Rising US Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.435% and the 30-year yield at 4.974%, increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, thereby reducing its attractiveness [5] - Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper and impending tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals may raise inflation expectations, enhancing gold's long-term appeal as an inflation hedge, but could also delay Fed rate cuts, limiting short-term price increases [6] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold has shown a downward trend since being resisted at 3365/3366, with current moving averages indicating a bearish outlook [8] - Key resistance levels are identified at 3320 and 3346, while support levels are at 3287 and 3276, with a significant trendline support at 3247/3245 [10] - The four-hour chart indicates a continuation of the downward trend, with resistance levels at 3316/3324 and support at 3283/3278, suggesting a cautious approach until a clear trend reversal is observed [10] Key Events to Watch - Upcoming economic data releases include China's June CPI, New Zealand's interest rate decision, and the US wholesale sales data, which may influence market sentiment and gold prices [12]

证券研究报告 2025 年 7 月 9 日 星期三 【A 股市场大势研判】 大盘震荡走高，沪指逼近 3500 点 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3497.48 | 0.70% | 24.35 | | | 深证成指 | 10588.39 | 1.47% | 152.89 | | | 沪深 300 | 3998.45 | 0.84% | 33.28 | | | 创业板 | 2181.08 | 2.39% | 50.89 | | | 科创 50 | 991.95 | 1.40% | 13.66 | | | 北证 50 | 1420.99 | 1.36% | 19.07 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 通信 | 2.89% | 公用事业 ...