2025年06月11日 抢出口 2.0 缘何滞后 宏观经济组 分析师:宋雪涛（执业 S1130525030001） 分析师: 孙永乐 (执业 S1130525030004) songxuetao@gjzq.com.cn sunyongle@gjzq.com.cn 抢出口 2.0 缘何滞后? 对美出口大幅回落一是前期高额税收的影响延续至5月中旬。二是关税缓和力度不足且从落地到见效尚需时间。另外, 从关税缓和到预定集装箱再到报关出口存在不短的时滞，6月中国对美的直接出口或有所好转。三是伴随着关税上行， 美国整体的进口需求或有所回落。 风险提示 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 妇状取更多服务 宏观经济点评 5 月出口同比增长 4.8%，环比 0.1%，其中对美出口同比从-21%进一步下滑至-34.5%。虽然关税缓和后"对美抢出口 2.0"并不明显,但出口依然保持韧性。 前期 145%高额税收的影响延续到了５月中旬,５月12日美方表示在 14日前对中国关税从 145%削减至 30%，之后中美 直接贸易往来或有所恢复。 图表1:分国别出口增速(单位:%) 40% 20% L 18% 30% 16% 20% 14% 10% 1 ...

有色金属日报 2025-6-11 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 铝 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 中美经贸谈判存在不确定性，美元指数偏稳，铜价震荡下滑，昨日伦铜收跌 0.45%至 9725 美元/吨， 沪铜主力合约收至 79030 元/吨。产业层面，昨日 LME 库存减少 2000 至 120400 吨，注销仓单比例提 高至 59.6%，注册仓单量维持低位，Cash/3M 升水 84 美元/吨。国内方面 ...

内外套日报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/11 最 新 品 种 进 口 利 润 / 内 外 价 差 日期 类别 品种 进口利润/内外价差 2025/06/10 农产品 Cotlook 1%关税进口利润 - 2025/06/10 农产品 M级美棉141%关税进口利润 -19783 2025/06/10 农产品 巴西大豆榨利：3月 - 2025/06/10 农产品 美湾大豆榨利：7月 - 2025/06/10 农产品 美湾大豆榨利：11月 - 2025/06/10 农产品 豆油进口利润：5月 - 2025/06/10 农产品 豆油进口利润：9月 - 2025/06/10 农产品 豆油进口利润：1月 - 2025/06/10 农产品 棕榈油进口利润：1月 - 2025/06/10 农产品 棕榈油进口利润：5月 - 2025/06/10 农产品 棕榈油进口利润：9月 - 2025/06/10 铁矿 铁矿内外价差 - 2025/06/10 能源 高硫内外价差 7 2025/06/10 能源 低硫内外价差 17 2025/06/10 能源 SC-BRT价差 -0 2025/06/10 能源 SC-WTI价差 2 20 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. API refined oil imports decreased by 253,000 barrels per day for the week ending June 6, compared to a previous value of 255,000 barrels per day [1] Industry Summary - The decline in refined oil imports indicates a potential shift in supply dynamics within the U.S. oil market, which may impact pricing and availability [1] - The current import levels suggest a tightening in the market, which could lead to increased domestic production or changes in consumption patterns [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. API crude oil imports decreased by 117,000 barrels for the week ending June 6, compared to an increase of 141,000 barrels in the previous period [1] Group 1 - The current week's crude oil imports show a significant decline, indicating potential shifts in supply dynamics [1] - The previous week's imports were notably higher, suggesting fluctuations in demand or supply chain adjustments [1]

Core Point - The United States and Mexico are nearing an agreement to lower steel tariffs and address issues related to automobile imports [1] Group 1: Steel Tariffs - The potential agreement aims to reduce the existing steel tariffs imposed by the United States on Mexican steel imports [1] - This move is expected to enhance trade relations between the two countries and benefit the steel industry [1] Group 2: Automobile Imports - The discussions also focus on resolving concerns regarding automobile imports from Mexico, which have been a point of contention [1] - A successful resolution could lead to increased automobile trade and production collaboration between the U.S. and Mexico [1]

LME铜价下跌，市场情绪谨慎，贸易谈判与美国铜进口税调查将如何影响铜价？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Core Points - The successful import of 13 tons of live clams and grouper from Bangkok to Ordos marks a significant breakthrough for the Ordos aviation port in the import of fresh aquatic products and edible aquatic animals [1][3] - The customs clearance process for these perishable goods was expedited, taking only 2.5 hours from landing to release, highlighting the efficiency of the customs service [3] Group 1 - The Ordos Customs has strengthened supervision and optimized services to promote the import of high-quality fresh aquatic products from Southeast Asia, contributing to the foreign trade development of Inner Mongolia [3] - A special guarantee plan was developed to meet the high timeliness requirements for the import of live aquatic products, including early declaration, priority review, appointment inspection, and rapid release [3] - The comprehensive designated supervision area for imported fruits, edible aquatic animals, and fresh aquatic products at the Ordos aviation port was approved by the General Administration of Customs in 2023, making it the first of its kind in Northwest China [3] Group 2 - Imported fruits and aquatic products can be directly transported to Ordos City, with fresh fruits and seafood being delivered to major markets in the city within one hour and to neighboring cities like Hohhot, Baotou, and Yulin within 2 to 3 hours [3]

市场分析 2025-06-09日沪镍主力合约2507开于122280元/吨，收于122710元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.47%，当日成交量为 115890手，持仓量为76246手。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-10 钢厂价格下调，不锈钢盘面创新低 镍品种 沪镍主力合约夜盘开盘快速上涨至前期高点附近后振荡回落至上日收盘价附近，日盘开盘振荡上涨至夜盘高点附 近后小幅回落，收中阳线。成交量较上个交易日有所增加，持仓量较上个交易日有所减少。6月9日中美美在英国 伦敦开始举行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。国家统计局6月9日发布数据显示，5月份，居民消费价格指数（CPI） 环比下降0.2%，同比下降0.1%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.6%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。工 业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比下降0.4%，降幅与上月相同，同比下降3.3%，降幅比上月扩大0.6个百分点。 菲律宾苏里高矿区装船效率恢复尚可。铁厂因亏损已实施减产措施，对镍矿原料需求转弱。印尼，苏拉威西镍矿 区受降雨影响，镍矿供应紧缺现象难改。6月（一期）内贸基准价下跌0.02美元左右，升水+26-28，整体价格环比 ...

Import Process Overview - The import process for paints involves several steps including signing a trade contract, arranging transportation, customs inspection, and tax payment [5][6]. - Basic commercial documents required include contracts, invoices, packing lists, and bills of lading [6]. - Specific documentation for hazardous materials includes safety data sheets, transportation certification, and compliance statements [6]. Customs Duties and Taxes - The HS codes for paints typically start with 3208 and 3209, with a general tariff rate of 10% [6]. - The value-added tax (VAT) is set at 13%, while some paints may incur a consumption tax of 4% if they exceed a certain VOC content [6]. Transportation Methods - Sea freight is suitable for bulk chemical products, offering lower costs but longer transit times, making it ideal for non-urgent shipments [8]. - Air freight is recommended for small quantities or urgent shipments, providing faster delivery but at a higher cost [10][11]. Additional Considerations - Special paints may require additional import licenses due to their chemical composition [6]. - The importation process also includes various inspections and certifications to ensure compliance with local regulations [5][6].