Core Insights - China's hydrogen industry is transitioning from pilot exploration to an orderly breakthrough phase, as highlighted in the "China Hydrogen Development Report (2025)" released by the National Energy Administration [1] - The global hydrogen sector is experiencing rapid growth, with the number of hydrogen projects increasing from 228 in 2020 to 1,572 by May 2024, and investments in projects at the final investment decision stage rising from approximately $10 billion for 102 projects in 2020 to $75 billion for 434 projects in 2024 [1] Company Developments - At the SNEC 2025, Huisheng Engineering and Sunshine Hydrogen jointly launched a one-stop overall solution for large-scale green hydrogen production called MegaFlex [2] - Trina Solar's subsidiary, Trina Yuan Hydrogen, unveiled MW-level PEM hydrogen production equipment and a 10MW alkaline hydrogen production system, showcasing advancements in hydrogen production technology [2] - The MW-level PEM hydrogen production equipment developed by Trina Yuan Hydrogen in collaboration with Fudan University features a new generation of PEM membrane electrode materials, achieving a total leakage rate of ≤0.14%/h at 3MPa high cathode pressure [2] Industry Trends - Alkaline electrolyzers are currently the mainstream equipment for green hydrogen production due to their mature technology and relatively low costs, particularly beneficial for industries with high hydrogen consumption such as refining and chemicals [3] - The introduction of a 2000Nm³/h alkaline electrolyzer by Trina Yuan Hydrogen, with a current density of 4000A/m² and a direct current energy consumption of less than 4.3 kWh/Nm³, aims to significantly reduce green hydrogen production costs and improve efficiency [3] - Containerized hydrogen production equipment is becoming the preferred choice for overseas green hydrogen projects due to lower transportation and delivery costs, with Trina Yuan Hydrogen's MW-level standard containerized hydrogen system capable of producing up to 1000Nm³/h [4] Future Outlook - As renewable energy prices decrease and electrolyzer efficiency improves, the competitiveness of green hydrogen costs is expected to increase, driving significant demand in industries such as chemicals and metallurgy [4] - The trade of hydrogen is anticipated to reshape the global energy landscape and play a crucial role in the formulation of new energy trade rules [4]

稳定币解决不了美债危机，也救不了美元霸权的崩塌，可一定不要小看它的影响——稳定币很可能正在打响一场在数字维度上展开的货币革命暗战。为何这 样说？主要有三大原因。 第一大原因，什么是稳定币？简单来说，它是与美元1:1挂钩的数字货币。 目前，美国政府已赋予其合法身份。稳定币与比特币的区别在于，其底层资产主要是美国短期国债及以国债为担保的短期借款。 这意味着两件事：其一，稳定币币值足够稳定。其信用基础几乎与美国政府等同，因此与比特币相比，稳定币波动性小得多，更接近交易媒介与计价单位。 其二，一旦规模足够大，稳定币便不再单纯是交易媒介，而是能直接参与现实世界的传统金融。截至今年5月，全球稳定币总规模近2400亿美元，占整个加 密货币市场的7%。 根据美国财政部测算，未来三年稳定币总规模将达2万亿美元。当前，几家头部稳定币发行商已成为美债（尤其是短期美债）市场的重要买家。 这意味着，这些发行方的操作不再局限于简单买卖，其一举一动甚至可能影响美国短期利率走向。 首先是失控风险。若稳定币规模持续扩大、与传统金融关联日益加深，其一旦出现问题，可能拖累美国整个金融体系。 道理很简单，美国政府赋予稳定币合法身份后，全球范围内，无 ...

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank analysts predict that the softening labor market in the UK will lead the Bank of England to reverse its restrictive monetary policy, with unemployment expected to rise above the central bank's modal forecast [1] - The latest data shows a decrease of 109,000 jobs in May, marking the most significant decline since May 2020, indicating a concerning trend in the labor market [1] - Deutsche Bank forecasts that the Bank of England's interest rate will drop from the current 4.25% to 3.5% by the end of this year, and further to 3.25% in the first quarter of 2026 [1] Group 2 - Nomura Oriental International Securities expects Chinese equity assets to outperform overseas markets in the second half of the year due to strong domestic policy expectations and better liquidity conditions in the Asia-Pacific emerging markets [2] - The firm highlights that the second half of 2025 will be a crucial period for market direction, with increased volatility anticipated [2] - Stable dividend stocks and specific technology growth sectors are expected to be more suitable for the market environment in the latter half of the year, alongside significant potential in domestic consumption and technology sectors [2] Group 3 - A Reuters survey indicates that over 60% of economists predict the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least twice this year, with many expecting a rate cut as early as September [3] - Economists forecast U.S. economic growth of 1.4% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, consistent with previous predictions [3] Group 4 - Morgan Stanley reports that the net long position in U.S. Treasury bonds has reached its highest level since May 5, with a 2 percentage point decrease in short positions [4] Group 5 - Fitch Ratings states that the depreciation of the U.S. dollar has provided some emerging market central banks with the space to accelerate interest rate cuts, alleviating the burden of dollar-denominated debt [5] Group 6 - Fitch also notes that global public finances will continue to face pressure in 2025, particularly in developed markets, due to rising defense spending, interest costs, and demographic trends [6] - The median government debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise slightly from 54.1% at the end of 2024 to 54.5% by the end of 2025 [6] Group 7 - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for Pop Mart to HKD 302, citing the company's IP diversity and operational capabilities as drivers of sustainable growth, suggesting that its long-term scaling potential has not yet been fully priced in [7] Group 8 - Morgan Stanley believes that long-term Japanese government bonds are attractive to foreign investors, although the timing of any adjustments to the bond issuance scale by the Japanese government remains uncertain [8] Group 9 - Goldman Sachs economists predict that tariffs may raise U.S. commodity prices and overall inflation in the coming months, with core CPI inflation expected to reach 3.5% by the end of the year, up from 2.8% in April [9] Group 10 - CITIC Securities anticipates that investor sentiment will remain stable in June, although there may be a cautious outlook among investors following the extreme performance of small-cap and thematic stocks in April and May [10] - Huaxi Securities suggests that the main market theme remains unclear, advocating for a rotational approach to trading in the technology sector [10] Group 11 - CICC reports that the Chinese consumption market is exhibiting characteristics of "consumption stratification" rather than simple "consumption downgrade," with consumers willing to pay for quality at lower prices and justified premiums [11] - The report emphasizes the importance of a stable macroeconomic foundation for structural highlights in the consumption market [11] Group 12 - China Galaxy Securities recommends focusing on stablecoin concept stocks with good growth prospects and reasonable valuations, as regulatory developments are expected to boost investor confidence in the stablecoin market [12] - Haitong Securities highlights the importance of flexibility in asset operations amid increased volatility and suggests looking for structural opportunities in sectors like AI technology and military industry [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of the discipline inspection and supervision agencies in advancing the Party's self-revolution, highlighting the need for continuous improvement in cadre team building and political loyalty [1] - The article discusses the necessity of integrating political education throughout the cadre team development process, ensuring that discipline inspection and supervision personnel deeply understand and implement Xi Jinping's thoughts [1][2] - It stresses the importance of practical training and real-case simulations to enhance the professional capabilities of discipline inspection and supervision personnel, particularly for younger cadres [2] Group 2 - The article outlines a dual approach of strict management and care to stimulate the vitality of the cadre team, promoting a positive work environment [3] - It mentions the establishment of a sound selection mechanism for discipline inspection and supervision personnel, ensuring that capable individuals are integrated into the team [3] - The need for a comprehensive assessment system is highlighted, focusing on scientific, simplified, and quantifiable principles to evaluate performance and guide personnel decisions [3]

作者：李昭，缪延亮，杨晓卿 ，屈博韬 点击小程序查看报告原文 2025H1我们建议维持超配黄金，增配中国股票，美股由攻转守，低配全球商品，标配中外债券（ 《大类资产2025年展望：时变之应》 ，发布于 2024/11/12），取得良好收益。4月份以来美国关税冲击超预期，宏观环境再次发生明显变化。2025H2我们建议 资产配置增加韧性，稳中求进，增配黄 金、高股息、中债等安全资产；等待时机增配代表新科技浪潮的成长风格股票。 图表1：2025YTD全球大类资产表现：黄金港股领涨，美股商品偏弱，债券表现居中 关税前景主导市场走势，资产运行体现新规律 美国关税政策是2025H1全球大类资产运行的主要矛盾：4月初关税冲击超预期，全球资产进入"避险模式"；4月下旬关税预期好转，市场情绪明显改善。 尽管关税在5月大幅调降，但美国实际平均有效税率仍接近16%，远高于2024年底2.4%的水平，可能对全球贸易与经济产生负面影响。 美国关税政策主观性、随意性偏强，未来演绎仍有很大变数，可能在2025H2继续主导全球市场走向。 图表2：美国有效关税税率仍然接近"斯姆特霍利"关税水平 注：截至2025/6/3 资料来源：Wind，Y ...

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests maintaining an overweight position in gold, increasing allocation to Chinese stocks, shifting from aggressive to defensive in US equities, underweighting global commodities, and maintaining a standard allocation in domestic and foreign bonds for the second half of 2025, aiming for resilient asset allocation amidst changing macroeconomic conditions [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Policy Impact - The US tariff policy is identified as the main factor influencing global asset performance in the first half of 2025, with unexpected tariff shocks leading to a risk-off market environment [4][5]. - Despite a significant reduction in tariffs in May, the effective average tariff rate remains around 16%, significantly higher than the 2.4% at the end of 2024, which may negatively impact global trade and economic growth [4][6]. - The article notes that the subjective and arbitrary nature of US tariff policies introduces considerable uncertainty for future market directions [5]. Group 2: Asset Performance Trends - The article highlights a shift in asset performance patterns in 2025 compared to 2018-2020, influenced by three super cycles: the dollar cycle, technology cycle, and real estate cycle [9][10][11]. - During tariff escalations, the dollar depreciated, US Treasury yields rose, and gold prices surged, indicating a complex interplay between tariffs and asset classes [9][18]. - Chinese stocks showed resilience during tariff escalations, with growth-style stocks outperforming, suggesting a potential revaluation of Chinese assets [10][41]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The US economic outlook is expected to deteriorate, with fiscal deficits projected to shrink in 2025, potentially leading to a recession or stagflation, which could suppress financial asset performance [21][26]. - The article anticipates a decline in the US fiscal deficit rate to around 5%-6% in 2025, with a shift to expansionary fiscal policies expected in 2026 [21][67]. - The potential for a "second inflation" risk remains, driven by tariff pressures despite currently low inflation levels [21][26]. Group 4: Gold and Commodity Outlook - Gold is projected to remain a key beneficiary in the current economic environment, with prices potentially reaching between $3,000 and $5,000 per ounce in the next few years, despite current prices being above equilibrium levels [36][39]. - The article suggests that commodities may be entering a new super cycle driven by AI and green transitions, although short-term demand may remain weak due to global economic slowdowns [51][53]. Group 5: Investment Strategy Recommendations - The article recommends an asset allocation strategy that emphasizes gold, high-dividend stocks, and domestic bonds, while suggesting a lower allocation to US equities and commodities [64]. - It advises maintaining a standard allocation in US Treasuries due to uncertainties, while being cautious about the potential for rising interest rates and inflation [64][67]. - The article encourages investors to look for opportunities in technology growth stocks, particularly in the Chinese market, as the AI revolution unfolds [41][49].

点击上图▲立即收听 " 如果对所有车企都是 ' 一刀切 ' ，那么对那些持续亏损、现金流不足、融资能力又一般的新势力们，恐怕将是一场灾难。 " 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 气温在升高，车圈的火药味也没降温。六月，一场由账期引发的"反内卷热浪"正在席卷汽车江湖。 周二 晚上，广汽、一汽、东风三家国企及赛力斯率先发声，承诺供应商账期不超过60 天。紧随其后，吉利、长安接力响应。 昨日凌晨一点，中国第一大车企比亚迪发文称，将供应商支付账期统一至60天内。 图源：比亚迪官微 随后，北汽、上汽、长城、奇瑞等传统车企以及小米、小鹏、零跑等造车新势力纷纷跟进。 就这样，一场由头部车企发起的"账期革命"迅速蔓延，在产业链上空缓缓荡起涟漪，一点点渗入旧有的游戏规则。 口水战 本质而言，此番密集表态，时机微妙，似乎是对近期车企内卷加剧的回应。 五月底，比亚迪宣布了年内第三次大规模价格调整，王朝网、海洋网共计22款智驾版车型最高降幅达5.3万元，创下其智驾车型价格新低。 随后，奇瑞、上汽通用等约10个车企跟进，混战拉开帷幕，引发新一轮车企价格战恐慌。 对此，工信部、汽车工业协会等纷纷发文批评此番降价，车企之间也不再保 ...

以下文章来源于汽车公社 ，作者杜余鑫 汽车公社 . 速度 深度 态度 作者 | 杜余鑫 来源 | 汽车公社 导语：不少车厂采用"90天或120天账期+180天银行承兑"的组合账期设计，这意味供应商今年 干的活儿，要明年才能见到钱。 汽车圈从前天晚上到今天，最大的事儿应该就是"各家车厂宣布积极响应国家号召，将支付供应商 货款的账期统一至60天内"的消息了。 6月10日，广汽集团在20点左右最先发布这一消息，表示了对供应商账期的郑重承诺。 之后两家央企一汽和东风，随即先后也在官微宣布了这一决定。核心意思是要践行责任和担当，毕 竟央企虽然在市场体量没有做到最大，但社会效应和责任这种带头作用还是要拿出来的。 再往后则是赛力斯于21点左右发布消息，官方没有在标题里提到账期和供应链生态字样，而是表达 了促进行业高质量发展的倡议，同时还凡尔赛了一把说"一直以来赛力斯都是正常货款账期60天"。 就在一众网友还在@吉利和长安时，很快这两家头部车企也积极响应，分别在23点后跟进了这一决 定。值得一提的是，刚在央企里地位升格的长安，觉得光母公司承诺还不够，将长安启源、长安凯 程、深蓝汽车、阿维塔也一并拉过来再承诺了一遍。 截至发稿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Walking Ideological and Political Course" at Guyuan No. 2 Middle School has been a tradition for 30 years, emphasizing physical endurance and the spiritual legacy of revolutionary martyrs through a 108-mile trek to the Ren Mountain River Martyrs' Cemetery [4][15]. Group 1: Event Details - Over 2,000 teachers and students from Guyuan No. 2 Middle School and Guyuan Hongwen Middle School participated in the trek, which took 15 hours from 5 AM to 8 PM, involving challenging terrain [2][4]. - Students supported each other during the journey, with some experiencing physical exhaustion but none giving up [2][4]. Group 2: Educational Impact - Initially aimed at physical training and willpower development, the course has evolved to honor revolutionary martyrs and instill revolutionary spirit [4][17]. - The experience has become a mandatory part of the curriculum for every first-year high school and middle school student [4]. Group 3: Personal Reflections - Zhang Hongmei, an English teacher at Guyuan No. 2 Middle School, reflects on how her experiences have changed with her evolving roles as a student, teacher, and mother [6]. - Graduates recall the perseverance and teamwork learned during the trek, which continue to benefit them in their careers [9][11]. Group 4: Broader Influence - Since 2023, Guyuan No. 2 Middle School has hosted over 20 schools and organizations to discuss the "Walking Ideological and Political Course" and has conducted over 40 lectures in nearly 10 cities to share their experiences [15]. - The school emphasizes that real education comes from practical experiences in nature and society, rather than just theoretical knowledge [17].

Core Insights - The global AI revolution is at a critical juncture, with domestic large models like DeepSeek leading to a "multipolar" competitive landscape, driving a reevaluation of Chinese tech assets through technological breakthroughs, policy benefits, and capital flows [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index, representing major Chinese tech companies, is attracting global attention due to its low valuation and high growth potential, especially after several constituent stocks reported better-than-expected Q1 2025 earnings [1] - The Great Wall Hang Seng Tech Index QDII fund aims to provide investors with an opportunity to invest in Chinese tech assets by tracking the Hang Seng Tech Index [1] Industry Overview - The Hang Seng Tech Index consists of 30 of the largest tech companies listed in Hong Kong, primarily focused on non-essential consumer goods (54.3%) and information technology (40.7%), representing a significant cluster of China's core tech assets [1] - Many companies within the Hang Seng Tech Index are not listed on the A-share market, creating a complementary relationship with A-share tech assets, and are deeply involved in the AI industry chain across various sectors [2] - The constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Tech Index show strong growth potential, with a median revenue growth rate of 11.29% and a median net profit growth rate of 32.94% for the year 2024 [2] Investment Value - Since the "924" market rally, the Hang Seng Tech Index has experienced significant valuation recovery, rising from 3000 points to 6000 points within two quarters, despite a recent pullback [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index has shown a 40.09% increase over the past year, outperforming major indices in Hong Kong and A-shares, indicating higher elasticity in the current tech market [3] - As of June 5, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio of the Hang Seng Tech Index is 20.87, positioned at the 13.04% percentile over the past decade, suggesting a compelling opportunity for low-position investments [3]