Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in trade negotiations, the impact of tariffs on inflation, and the upcoming economic data releases that could influence monetary policy decisions in the US and Europe [1][3][6]. Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - President Trump announced a new round of reciprocal tariffs on several trade partners, leading to a decline in US stock markets, with the Dow Jones down 1.02% and the S&P 500 down 0.31% for the week [1]. - The deadline for the new tariffs to take effect is August 1, and investors are awaiting further news on trade negotiations [1][3]. - The EU is attempting to reach a trade agreement with the US, with concerns that US tariffs could disrupt transatlantic supply chains [6]. Economic Data and Monetary Policy - The upcoming US inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June, is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's decision on potential interest rate cuts later this year [3]. - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes indicated concerns about inflation pressures from tariffs, but a belief that a rate cut may occur later in the year [3]. - In the UK, inflation has risen, with the CPI at 3.4% in May, and expectations for a potential rate cut by the Bank of England if economic data continues to underperform [7]. Commodity Markets - Oil prices have stabilized, with WTI crude oil rising 2.16% to $68.45 per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing 3.02% to $70.36 per barrel, amid concerns over summer supply and demand [4]. - Gold prices have also rebounded, with COMEX gold rising 0.73% to $3356 per ounce, as investors seek safe-haven assets amid trade uncertainties [5]. Upcoming Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators to watch include the US PPI, industrial production, and retail sales data, as well as consumer sentiment surveys [3][9]. - In Europe, the ZEW economic sentiment index for Germany will be released, reflecting the economic outlook amid trade tensions [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is the early stage of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [11][12] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with short-term supply-demand balance and long-term gaps still present [11][12] - Coal prices have established a bottom and are trending towards a new platform, with high profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE) of 10-20%, and dividend yields over 5% for quality coal companies [11][12] - The coal sector is relatively undervalued, with overall valuation expected to improve, supported by high premiums in the primary mining rights market and a price-to-book (PB) ratio around 1 for most companies [11][12] - The coal sector is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance over the next 3-5 years, with quality coal companies exhibiting high barriers to entry, cash flow, dividends, and yield characteristics [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of July 12, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 624 CNY/ton, an increase of 8 CNY/ton week-on-week [28] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1310 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton week-on-week [30] Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 93.7%, down 0.3 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 85.52%, up 1.7 percentage points [11][46] - Daily coal consumption in coastal provinces increased by 6.10 thousand tons/day (+2.92%) week-on-week, while inland provinces saw a decrease of 9.50 thousand tons/day (-2.61%) [11][47] Coal Inventory Situation - As of July 10, coal inventory in coastal provinces decreased by 785 thousand tons (-2.18%) week-on-week, while inland provinces saw a slight decrease of 0.70 thousand tons (-0.01%) [11][47] Key Companies to Watch - Focus on stable and robust performers such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy [12] - Attention to companies with significant upside potential like Yanzhou Coal Mining, China Power Investment, and Guanghui Energy [12]

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【周度铁矿石市场：发运降、需求弱、库存变，短期矿价震荡偏强】供应方面，全球铁矿石发运总量 2994.9万吨，环比减少362.7万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2465.0万吨，环比减少417.3万吨。其中，澳洲 发运量1802.6万吨，环比减少196.4万吨，发往中国的量1453.7万吨，环比减少323.1万吨；巴西发运量 662.4万吨，环比减少220.9万吨。中国47港到港总量2535.5万吨，环比增加122.0万吨；45港到港总量 2483.9万吨，环比增加120.9万吨。 需求方面，日均铁水产量239.81万吨，环比上周减少1.04万吨。钢厂 高炉开工率83.15%，环比上周减少0.31个百分点；钢厂盈利率59.74%，环比上周增加0.43个百分点。 库 存方面，全国47个港口进口铁矿库存总量14346.89万吨，环比下降139.01万吨；日均疏港量337.80万 吨，环比增加3.61万吨。 小结显示，进入发运淡季后，铁矿石发运量环比季节性回落，澳洲和巴西发运 下降明显，近端到港量增加。铁水产量下滑因部分地区常规检修和河北天气原因。到港不及预期，港 ...

（一）6 月海外市场主线？美国"金发女郎"交易再起，伊以、关税风波阶段性扰动 宏 观 研 究 宏观"月月谈"系列之八 2025 年 07 月 13 日 关税效应进入"数据验证期" —— 7 月宏观月报 6 月，海外市场再现"金发女郎"交易，国内市场情绪也在经济的温和复苏中持续提振。随着 关税效应的逐步显现，滞胀预期如何验证、市场交易的主线如何切换？本文分析，供参考。 一、宏观月报：关税效应进入"数据验证期" 国内方面，反内卷或仍是核心聚焦；政策或通过供需端总量调控、结合产业结构转型升级。1） 总量层面，破解"内卷"困境重点或在缓解供需矛盾。2）结构方面，或主要通过政策引导、 行业自律等推动供给创新升级。经济数据，聚焦服务业景气的接力与出口数据的验证。 6 月以来，"金发女郎"交易再度成为海外市场的主线。原因有三方面：1）《美丽大法案》推 进顺利、并在 7 月 4 日成功落地，打消了市场前期对"法案推进受阻"、"X-date 临近"等担 忧；2）5 月通胀数据低于预期，降息空间边际打开。3）经济温和走弱，但就业数据韧性十足。 伊以冲突一度引发市场的阶段性担忧，关税风暴虽再度来袭、但市场反应相对平淡。1）伊以 冲 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、李欣越、赵宇、王茂宇 联系人| 李欣越 伊以冲突一度引发市场的阶段性担忧，关税风暴虽再度来袭、但市场反应相对平淡。 1）伊以冲突一度 对市场有明显扰动。6月24日伊以宣布停火后，前期大涨的金油价格共振下跌。2）关税调整带来的影响 则相对平淡；7月7日以来，标普仅震荡微跌0.3%、美元则反弹了0.9%。 （二）6月国内市场的焦点？消费政策效果正持续释放，外部扰动也趋于缓和 6月，国内经济呈现温和复苏态势、前期政策效果持续释放。 1）电商促销前置等带动消费需求集中释 放；5月社零增速创2024年以来新高。2）核心商品CPI明显回升，也反映了促消费政策刺激下国内需求的 持续释放。3）6月制造业PMI超预期，结构上内需订单修复程度更快。 此外，政策利好的加码与外部扰动的缓和，也创造了比较有利的市场环境。 一方面，金融对外开放等政 策进一步提振了市场情绪。另一方面，中美间的贸易谈判仍在延续，近期特朗普针对部分经济体提高关 税税率、但对中国未再加码；同时，弱美元背景下，人民币汇率也逐步走强。 摘要 6月，海外市场再现"金发女郎"交易，国内市场情绪也在经济的温和复苏中持 ...

首先得明确一个核心关联：A 股科技股的走势，很大程度上受港股恒生科技指数的牵引。因为核心科技 企业，像互联网巨头、芯片半导体龙头，大多在港股上市；而 A 股的科创公司，更多是这些巨头的上 游配套供应商。港股涨，A 股科技股才有联动上涨的基础，这是绕不开的必然关系。所以，科技股何时 涨，本质上可以转化为 "恒生科技何时涨" 这个可预测的问题。? （原标题：和讯投顾梁志成：科技什么时候能好起来，看两个信号！） 恒生科技要上涨，得满足两个关键条件 —— 足够的流动性支撑，而流动性又由两方面决定。? 科技股迟迟不涨，背后的逻辑确实藏得很深，全网少有人说透。今天就把这层窗户纸捅破，从根源上拆 解清楚。? 第一是港币对美元的汇率。港币汇率和恒生科技的走势高度匹配：今年 5 月汇率达到高点后，进入下跌 横盘，恒生科技也同步承压；如今汇率暂时止跌企稳，这是一个积极信号。因为港币实行联系汇率制， 汇率稳定意味着香港市场的流动性环境相对宽松，能为恒生科技提供资金土壤。? 第二是美联储的降息预期。目前市场普遍预期美联储可能在 9 月降息，且预期越来越强烈。一旦美国开 始炒作降息，全球热钱就会从美元资产流向新兴市场寻找机会，而港股和 ...

A股有了赚钱效应，自然带来更多的关注！ 来源：郭一鸣- 基本面复苏的强度与持续性也存疑，虽然总体趋势向好，但月度经济数据仍可能反复，引发市场对复苏强度的担忧，地产销售数据的持续性等问 题仍需关注；一季报显示盈利分化严重，整体盈利回升的幅度和广度仍需后续季度财报进一步确认，部分行业的盈利前景仍不明朗；CPI、PPI 数 据虽有改善，但绝对水平仍低，市场对需求不足和通缩风险的担忧并未完全消除。 政策预期差与落地节奏也会带来影响，市场对 "强刺激" 政策有较高期待，若实际政策力度或落地节奏低于预期可能导致情绪波动；对特定行业的 监管政策变化仍可能引发相关板块剧烈震荡，影响市场整体情绪。 海外不确定性与扰动同样不可忽视，美国顽固的通胀数据可能导致美联储降息时点进一步推迟，甚至引发相关担忧，压制全球风险偏好，对 A 股 形成压力；全球主要地区的地缘冲突持续以及大国博弈可能引发避险情绪升温，造成市场波动；若美股等主要市场出现显著调整，也会对 A 股情 绪产生负面影响。 从市场内部结构与资金行为来看，虽然增量资金有流入迹象，但市场尚未完全摆脱存量博弈特征，资金在不同板块间快速轮动，难以形成持续普 涨，容易造成指数震荡；市场 ...

Group 1: Copper Market - Copper prices experienced a rise followed by a decline, primarily influenced by policy changes and the low probability of interest rate cuts in July, alongside the announcement of high tariffs on copper by the U.S., leading to increased market risk aversion [1] - The short-term forecast for copper prices indicates a weak trend, with spot prices expected to fluctuate between 77,500-79,500 CNY/ton and LME copper between 9,450-9,850 USD/ton [1] Group 2: Aluminum Market - Domestic aluminum prices initially fell before rebounding, with an average price of 20,696 CNY, reflecting a decrease of 0.61% [1] - The market is influenced by macroeconomic disturbances, including the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations and adjustments in tariff policies, leading to fluctuations in demand and inventory levels [1] - The outlook for aluminum prices suggests continued high-range fluctuations, with an average price expected around 20,650 CNY [1] Group 3: Lead Market - Lead prices showed a stable range-bound movement with an average price of 16,950 CNY, slightly down by 0.06% [1] - The market lacks upward momentum for lead prices, although cost support limits downward movement, indicating a continuation of range-bound trading [1] - The short-term forecast for lead prices suggests a focus on the range of 16,800-17,100 CNY for spot prices [1] Group 4: Zinc Market - Zinc market sentiment is pessimistic due to tariffs and seasonal factors, with expectations of a slight decline in prices [2] - Despite a relaxed supply outlook due to global zinc mine production increases, relatively low inventory levels provide some price support [2] - The anticipated range for next week's zinc prices is between 21,800-22,500 CNY [2] Group 5: Tin Market - Tin prices are experiencing a downward trend, influenced by macroeconomic factors and ongoing tariff disturbances, leading to increased market risk aversion [2] - Supply remains tight, but recent price declines have prompted downstream purchasing activity, indicating a potential for recovery in transactions [2] - The expected price range for tin next week is between 258,000-270,000 CNY, with a focus on macroeconomic developments and consumption trends [2] Group 6: Nickel Market - Nickel prices are on a downward trend, with an average price of 121,775 CNY, down by 710 CNY or 0.58% [3] - The market sentiment is bearish, influenced by falling nickel-iron prices and a lack of significant demand improvement [3] - The forecast for nickel prices suggests a potential rebound, with a trading range expected between 118,000-123,000 CNY [3]

图 一周摘要 图 市场概况： 上周（7月7日至7月11日）A股再现普涨行情。全周小盘股显著占优，微盘股周涨幅接近 3%，位列主要宽基榜首位。中证2000、中证 1000、中证 500等中小盘股指数同步跑赢大盘股指数。周 初，量化交易新规落地引发资金密切关注，而从成交额变动及涨跌幅变化看，市场正逐步适应新规，资 金也转向基本面验证更清晰的标的。全周科技创新、高端制造与海工装备等领域中报预期向好，带动创 业板指数及万得双创指数走强，而反观沪深300及中证红利，相对表现平稳，市场风险偏好回升下资金 从防御性板块撤离迹象有所体现。 行业板块： 上周Wind一级平均涨幅接近2%，各行业指数轮动上涨，百大概念指数上涨比例92%。板块 方面，房地产、钢铁、非银金融相对表现良好，分别上涨6.12%、4.41%、3.96%，银行周五大幅下挫， 全周下跌约1%，煤炭亦走弱超过1%。 基金发行： 上周合计发行26只，其中股票型基金发行13只，混合型基金发行4只，债券型基金发行8 只， FOF型基金发行1只，总发行份额248.19亿份。 基金表现 ： 上周万得全基指数上涨0.54%。其中，万得普通股票型基金指数上涨0.88%，万得偏 ...

报 告 正 文 1.全球资产价格表现 欧洲股市领涨，日债收益率上行。 股市方面，本周全球主要股市涨跌互现，欧洲主要股市普遍上涨，英国 富时 100 、德国 DAX 和法国 CAC 分别上涨 1.3% 、 2% 、 1.7% 。而美股三大指数中，标普 500 较上周 持平，道琼斯工业下跌 0.4% ，纳达克综指上涨 0.1% 。债市方面，本周主要国债收益率多数上行， 10 年 期美债收益率波动较小，与上周持平；日本因参议院选举临近，市场担忧将面临更大的财政支出，长期债 券收益率上升，日本 10 年国债收益率上行 16bp 。商品方面，本周黄金和原油价格均有回落。汇率方面， 多数货币相对美元小幅贬值，美元指数回升 0.9% 。 | 全球股市 | 周 涨跌幅(%) | 月 涨跌幅(%) | 全球债市 | 周涨跌幅(bp) | 月 涨跌幅(bp) | 全球汇市 | 周涨跌幅(%) | 月 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标普500 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 美国国债收益率:2年 | 2.0 | 12.0 | 美元指 ...