Geopolitical Analysis - Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran, targeting military officials and nuclear program personnel, leading to an exchange of missiles [2] - The US intervened with "Operation Midnight Hammer," deploying over a dozen 15-ton bunker-buster bombs on Iranian nuclear facilities [3] - President Trump negotiated a ceasefire after Iran responded with a ceremonial missile launch at a US base in Qatar, with no casualties [6] - Trump expressed dissatisfaction with Israel for immediately bombing after the ceasefire deal [7] - The US aimed to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons while avoiding a prolonged Middle Eastern war, achieving both objectives [14][15] US Foreign Policy & Global Power Dynamics - The US demonstrated technological and military supremacy, shaping the global order and setting clear boundaries for Iran regarding nuclear weapons [17][18] - President Trump aimed for a stable Iran, encouraging trade with China and improved living conditions for its people [18] - The US brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, showcasing its role as a global superpower [18] - There's uncertainty about future actions, particularly from Israel, regarding the Iranian regime [18][20] - The situation was managed to avoid escalation into a larger conflict, potentially involving China and Russia [19]

Each conflict has unique circumstances that determine whether a ceasefire holds. But research suggests that successful ones tend to have three things in common https://t.co/YpgWQH0qOM ...

Each conflict has unique circumstances that determine whether a ceasefire holds. But research suggests that successful ones tend to have three things in common https://t.co/ZFmHcKR89V ...

Joining us now, president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, Ian Bremer. Ian, welcome. Glad you're here because um interestingly, this is the first time we're hearing from Iran's leader.He's trying to convey authority. He did appear kind of weak, a little bit horsearo. Give us a sense of what he's trying to accomplish.What's his message here. Well, of course, I I want to congratulate him on his extraordinary victory for the Islamic Republic. Um and and no, I'm not being serious, but that is the m ...

Ceasefire and Objectives - A 12-day war achieved objectives for both the US and Israel, leading to a ceasefire to prevent an endless conflict [3] - The administration hopes for a comprehensive peace agreement with Iran, encouraged by ongoing conversations and multiple outreach efforts [4][5] - Expanding the Abraham Accords is a key objective, with potential announcements of new countries joining, aiming for broader normalization and regional stability [7] Nuclear Program and Red Lines - Preventing Iran from nuclear enrichment and weaponization remains a firm red line, crucial for regional stability [8][9] - US intelligence agencies contradict claims of minimal impact from previous strikes, asserting significant damage to Iran's weaponization and enrichment capabilities [10] - Key Iranian nuclear sites, including Fordow and Esfahan, were targeted, significantly impairing their nuclear program [11][12] - Discussions with Iran focus on rebuilding a civil nuclear program without enrichment capabilities, similar to the UAE model, with robust observation [13][14] Economic and Regional Impact - Lifting some sanctions on Iranian crude oil shipments to China signals a desire for cooperation and a more prosperous Iran [16][17][18] - A peace agreement in the GCC region could lead to a renaissance and upward movement in asset classes by reducing war risk and attracting senior credit [20][21][22] - The administration believes its approach to the Iran conflict, achieving objectives efficiently, can inspire similar peaceful resolutions in the Russia-Ukraine war [23][24][25]

You just said you believe the conflict between Israel and Iran is over. What makes you so confident it is. And what do you do if it isn't.Because I dealt with both and they're both tired, exhausted. They fought very, very hard and very viciously, very violently. Uh, and they were both satisfied to go home and get out.And can it start again. I guess someday it can. It could maybe start soon.Uh I think a big telltale sign was when uh as you know Iran somewhat by not much violated the uh ceasefire and Israel h ...

Oil Price & Market Dynamics - Oil prices experienced a significant drop, with WTI showing a slight upside in early Asian trading sessions following a double-digit percentage slump over the past two days [1][3] - US crude stockpiles showed another drop, contributing to a roughly 5% decline in New York-traded crude prices over two days [4] - President Trump signaled a desire to maintain Iranian oil flow, a shift from previous strategies of restricting Iranian energy exports [2] Geopolitical Factors & Risk - A fragile ceasefire brokered by President Trump between Israel and Iran reduces the risk premium on oil supplies, but the situation remains unstable [4][5][7] - The US essentially gave China, Iran's largest crude customer, the go-ahead to continue purchasing Iranian oil, potentially as an olive branch amid trade uncertainties [5] - China's approach to importing Iranian oil remains uncertain given potential sanctions [6] Iran's Situation & Strategy - Iran's proxy network, including Hezbollah, has been significantly weakened but retains some capacity to cause damage, with estimates suggesting Hezbollah still possesses approximately 20% of its missile capacity [10][11] - Iran's primary focus is regime survival, potentially opening a window for nuclear diplomacy and negotiation [13][14] - The Iranian regime is interested in maintaining its proxy network, no matter how weak, and will review its military deterrence strategy [12] Potential for Future Conflict - Israel, particularly the Prime Minister, remains concerned about Iran's ability to reconstitute its nuclear fuel capacity, potentially hindering long-term peace [8] - The question remains whether Israel will halt military action against Iran, and whether the US President will pressure the Israeli Prime Minister to do so [15][16]

We're with them all the way. If you take a look at the numbers, we're with them. And they're very big things to announce.And I don't know if you've taken the vote or you're going to take the vote, but I've been asking them to go up to 5% for a number of years and they're going up to 5%. That's a big from 2%. And a lot of people didn't even pay the 2%.So I think it's going to be very big news that it is going to become very strong with us. And I appreciate doing it. Perhaps you want to jump.Yeah, absolutely. ...

Early US intelligence findings suggest US airstrikes had a limited impact on Tehran's nuclear program. Also on the show: a fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel appears to be holding; Jerome Powell faced questioning on Capitol Hill repeating that policymakers need not rush to adjust rates; President Trump says China can continue buying oil from Iran; Trump shared a private message from the NATO Secretary General praising his actions in Iran. Guests include: Omar Rahman, Middle East Council on Global Aff ...

>> Meantime Israel accusing Iran of violating a cease fire between the two countries. Israel saying it identified missiles launched from Iran. Now Iran denying it broke that agreement.This comes hours after President Trump posted online that, quote, the cease fire is now in effect. Please do not violate it, he said. The president leaving Washington this morning for a NATO summit in the Netherlands.Megan Cassella, joins us now with the latest from Washington, D. C. Good morning, guys.>> Good morning to a lot ...