Tariff Impact & Inflation - Traditional tariff understanding involves border application, but new trade policies apply tariffs based on goods within goods or raw materials, complicating cost assessment [1][2] - The accumulation of tariff impacts across the global value chain of production leads to earning and inflation shocks [3] - Companies are adjusting pricing decisions based on when and how they understand their costs related to tariffs [3] Supply Chain Dynamics - Cost pressure from suppliers is increasing, leading to appeals for price increases [4] - Customers are using data to negotiate and understand appropriate pricing in response to tariff increases [4] - Tariff impacts are working their way through the supply chain to the end customer and ultimately affecting earnings [4]

Market Trends - The US market experienced a significant correction due to tariff news in February [1] - The US market has rebounded to new highs from the April low [1] Analysis - Political turmoil does not seem to be significantly impacting the market [1]

Trade Policy - The US imposed a 39% tariff on Swiss exports [1] - Companies cannot avoid the 39% US tariff by exporting through Liechtenstein [1]

Inflation & Tariffs - Core CPI annualized basis came in a little hotter than expected, at the highest since February [2] - Sequential core inflation and underlying inflation data are showing an uptick after two years of moving closer to the Fed target [3] - Tariff pass-through is having a moderate impact and is likely to grow in the months ahead [3] - Import-sensitive categories like furniture, appliances, and car parts are seeing a shift towards higher inflation [4] Economic Growth & Labor Market - Recent economic data shows some labor market weakening and slowing in economic activity and growth [4] - There are medium-term questions about the effect of tariffs on both inflation and economic growth/employment [4] Consumer Spending & Impact on Working Class - Tariffs disproportionately affect low and moderate-income households [8] - Wage growth is slowing down at the bottom of the income distribution [9] - Consumer spending has been almost flat in the aggregate over the last six months, likely weaker at the bottom of the distribution [9] Healthcare & Student Loans - Premiums for those getting healthcare through Affordable Care Act exchanges will increase, in some cases by 10-20% starting in 2026 [11] - The turning off of the student loan pause is already showing its way in some of the credit score data [12] - There are challenges in the bottom half of the distribution that policymakers will need to be attuned to [13] Data Integrity - It's critical that members of the US Senate interrogate the nominee and press him on whether he can commit to providing credible nonpartisan data completely free from political interference [5] - Business leaders and market participants should make their voices heard about the importance of US economic data being respected [6]

US tariff revenue reached a fresh monthly record in July, though the increase wasn’t enough to prevent a widening in the monthly budget deficit — pointing to the federal government’s continuing fiscal challenges https://t.co/lX9IwemUXp ...

Inflation Trends & Analysis - CPI inflation has been running at a 19% annualized rate since the president took office [1] - There is no evidence of tariff-induced inflation at the aggregate level [1][3] - Relative price changes are expected, but no overall inflation impact from tariffs is observed [2][3] - Core inflation numbers were slightly higher, with used cars and airfares being strong categories [4][5] Factors Influencing Inflation - Illegal immigration is estimated to have boosted rents by about 4% to 5%, contributing to overall inflation [6] - Strong border policies are expected to lead to service disinflation as net migration decreases [8] - Deregulation, capital stock expansion, and energy abundance are part of a government approach to disinflation [8] Used Car Market - There was no material increase in new car inflation, suggesting used car price increases are not directly linked to tariffs [9][10] - The premise that new car price increases would automatically inflate used car values is false in this instance [10]

President Donald Trump assailed David Solomon, the CEO of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. on Tuesday, saying the bank had made a “bad prediction” about the impact of his sweeping tariff agenda on markets and consumer costs https://t.co/W6EQZIhD0b ...

Forbes Daily: Another China Tariff Extension https://t.co/5IiDaF0dY9 ...

Forbes Daily: Another China Tariff Extensionhttps://t.co/6Ii226MY4p https://t.co/YpHg79avT2 ...

Market Expectations & Trade Negotiations - The market had largely priced in the complexities of US-China trade negotiations, leading to a muted reaction in Chinese equities [2] - The extension of trade negotiations implies that many details still need to be resolved, contributing to a "wait and see" attitude in the market [2][3] Consumption Trends in China - Despite deflationary pressures, new consumption themes are emerging in China, driven by both younger and older generations [4][5] - These themes include increased spending on jewelry, collectible toys, skincare, and travel, reflecting a desire for self-indulgence amid economic challenges [5] - The "new consumption" trend is expected to continue, influenced by generational shifts and current economic conditions [6] Electric Vehicle (EV) Market - China's EV market is a significant driver for its economy, with increasing exports [7] - The primary concern for Chinese EV producers is domestic competition, with many companies developing high-quality, advanced products [8] - Competition within the Chinese EV market is intensifying due to the emergence of high-quality products and enhanced user experiences [8]