Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's main product prices have declined, leading to a decrease in performance for the second half of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 [6] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 29.763 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.029 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 148% [5] - The company is expected to face challenges in 2025 due to further price declines in key products, resulting in a downward adjustment of profit forecasts for 2025-2026 [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 29.763 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.029 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 148% [5] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 7.290 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.96%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 10.92% [5] Business Segments - The chemical new materials segment generated a revenue of 20.4 billion yuan in 2024, up 26.8% year-on-year, while the basic chemical products segment saw a revenue of 5.8 billion yuan, down 7.4% year-on-year [6] - The fertilizer business achieved a revenue of 3.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.9% [6] Price Trends - The report highlights a decline in sales prices for key products in the second half of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, with specific declines noted for PC, PA6, and other chemicals [6] Production Capacity and Management - The company has successfully resumed production of its hydrogen peroxide facility and launched new capacity projects, including a 600,000-ton caprolactam project [7] - The production target for 2025 is set at 13.5 million tons, a 40.6% increase from 2024 [7] Profit Forecasts - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downward due to the decline in product prices, with expected net profits of 2.056 billion yuan for 2025, 2.325 billion yuan for 2026, and 2.643 billion yuan for 2027 [7]

2024 业绩符合我们预期 公司公布2024 及1Q25 年业绩：2024 年收入297.63 亿元，同比增长17.4%，归母净利润20.29 亿元，对 应每股盈利1.06 元，同比增长147.8%，其中4Q24 收入81.84 亿元，同环比分别增长10.4%/8.6%，归母净 利润4.54 亿元，同环比分别增长45.5%/12.5%，业绩符合我们预期。 1Q25 收入72.90 亿元，同环比分别+8.0%/-10.9%，归母净利润4.13 亿元，同环比分别-27.3%/-9.0%。 持续推进项目建设，为公司成长提供动能。2024 年末公司在建工程47.60亿元，主要包括：40 万吨有机 硅项目，24 万吨/年乙烯下游一体化项目（二期工程），15 万吨/年丙酸项目，8#9#双氧水项目等，进 度分别为93%/80%/75%/92%。据公司年报，截至2024 年末公司有机硅项目已顺利打通全流程，我们预 计1Q25 已有部分利润贡献。 盈利预测与估值 由于丁辛醇等产品价格下跌，我们下调公司2025 年净利润28%至17.30 亿元。引入2026 年盈利预测 19.72 亿元，公司当前股价对应12.7 倍2025 年 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The supply of vegetables, meat, and fruits in the Xinfadi market is sufficient and prices are relatively stable ahead of the "May Day" holiday [1] - The price of beef is between 58-60 yuan per kilogram, while lamb is priced at 42 yuan per kilogram [1] - Seafood supply remains stable at approximately 1,000-1,200 tons daily, with no significant increase in pre-holiday purchases [1] Group 2: Vegetable Pricing - Vegetable prices in the Xinfadi market are showing a steady decline, with a significant drop observed [1] - On April 26, the market saw a vegetable supply of 20,000 tons, with a weighted average price of 2.83 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 15% [1] - The decline in vegetable prices is attributed to increased supply from the Yellow River's middle and lower reaches and the recovery from previous adverse weather conditions [1] Group 3: Fruit Supply and Pricing - The daily supply of fruits in the Xinfadi market is approximately 12,000 tons, with a weighted average price of 9.75 yuan per kilogram [2] - Seasonal fruits from both northern and southern regions are entering the market, including cherries, blueberries, mangoes, loquats, grapes, and navel oranges [2] - As May approaches, fruit production is expected to peak, leading to a significant decrease in prices for stored fruits like apples and pears [2] Group 4: Market Preparedness - To ensure supply during the "May Day" holiday, the Xinfadi market is coordinating with merchants to enhance planting plans and increase harvesting efforts [2] - The market will utilize live streaming for sales during the holiday, offering same-day and next-day delivery to meet consumer demand [2]

中国从美国进口的原油天然气等能源资源占比较小，关税对石油炼化产品的价格影响有限。2024 年中国原油进口量 55349 万吨，液化天然气（LNG）进口量 7738 万吨，其中从美国进口的原油仅 963.8 万吨，占比仅 1.74%，从美国进 口的 LNG 仅 443.3 万吨，占比 5.73%。2025 年 2 月，中国从美国进口原油共 26.45 万吨，环比减少 67.35%，同比减少 65.08%；进口 LNG6.58 万吨，环比减少 66.14%，同比减少 5.39%，中国从美国进口的原油天然气逐渐减少。因此相比 于乙烷、丙烷，中国从美国进口的原油天然气占比较小，进口依存度较低，中国对美加征关税带来进口价格提升的影 响范围更小，因此主要的石油下游炼化产品诸如 PX、PTA 的价格及供给受关税带来的影响较轻，价格抬升的幅度及周 期较气头产品更小，可能在较短时间内可以寻求供应替代方案从而恢复到正常水平。 事件简介 在美国政府宣布对所有贸易伙伴征收"对等关税"后，4 月 4 日，中方一系列反制措施落地，除了对美国加征 34%关 税外，中方还对美国相关实体进行了制裁。自 2025 年 4 月 10 日起，中国对 ...