投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 短期供应扰动增加，煤焦期货低位调整 核心观点 焦炭：本周，焦炭供需格局无明显变化，延续淡季供需两弱局面，但安 监、环保和进口等焦煤供应端不确定性有所增加，市场多空博弈加剧，部 分空头止盈离场，带动焦炭主力合约低位反弹。具体从产业数据来看，本 周焦煤产量连续第三周录得环比回落，且原材料焦煤现货价格随着期货反 弹而开始止跌企稳，未进一步缓解焦企的经营压力。根据钢联统计，截至 6 月 6 日当周，30 家独立焦化厂吨焦盈利-19 元/吨，周环比改善 20 元。 但焦化厂开工率继续小幅下滑，本周全国 230 家独立焦化厂产能利用率 74.93%，降 0.15%；独立焦化厂、钢厂焦化厂焦炭合计产量 113.82 万 吨，周环比降 0.31 万吨。需求方面，截至 6 月 6 日当周，全国 247 家钢 厂铁水日均产量 241.8 万吨，周环比降 0.11 万吨。整体来看，焦炭自身 基本面变化不大 ...

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：市场情绪回暖 反弹谨慎对待 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 6 月 6 日 逻辑：昨日，煤焦期货价格短暂震荡后，夜盘再度拉升反弹。近日空 头止盈叠加煤供应端的消息刺激，助力煤价走出反弹趋势。现货市场保持 弱势，部分钢厂开始对焦炭价格进行第 3 轮调降；焦煤价格同样保持弱稳 运行。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 从基本面来看，煤矿生产延续小幅下滑趋势，但尚未出现大面积停减 产。本周 523 座炼焦煤样本矿山原煤日产 189.9 万吨，环比减少 1.8 万吨， 同比下降 7 ...

Core Insights - The coal industry is experiencing significant supply contraction due to falling prices, with over 53.64% of coal companies reporting losses as of April 2025, the highest level since 2018 [1][20][22] - Electricity demand is expected to rebound with the onset of summer, as average daily power generation showed a year-on-year increase of 3.32% in mid-May 2025, despite a 14.37% decline in hydroelectric power generation [1][59] - A strong expectation for a rebound in thermal coal prices is anticipated as demand increases with rising temperatures, potentially peaking during the July-August consumption high [2][59] Supply and Demand Analysis - The coal supply has contracted significantly, with April 2025 coal production down 11.64% month-on-month, primarily due to reductions in output from regions like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia [20][59] - The decline in coal imports, which fell by 16.4% year-on-year in April 2025, is expected to support the domestic market [24][26] - The overall supply reduction is greater than the demand decrease, indicating that coal prices are currently in an oversold state [20][21] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include industry leaders with stable performance such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as growth-oriented companies like Jinkong Coal and Shanmei International [3] - The report highlights the defensive value of leading companies with low debt and high cash flow, which are expected to benefit from market confidence and potential asset injections [2][3] Price Outlook - Thermal coal prices are expected to rebound due to seasonal demand increases and supply tightening, with a peak anticipated during the summer consumption high [2][59] - Coking coal prices are projected to stabilize, supported by a bottoming out of thermal coal prices and potential increases in export demand due to easing trade tensions [2][60]

橡胶期货价格反弹，但目前基本面偏弱，泰国天气因素能否持续支撑价格？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

SHMET 网讯： 进入5月以后，氧化铝自历史低位反弹，逐渐上涨至一个月高位。上周五，基本面突传利好，期价盘中迅速拉升并触及涨停。 氧化铝大幅反弹，主要受几内亚矿业政策扰动吗？几内亚采矿证撤销问题会对供应端产生什么样的影响？目前国内氧化铝企业开工如何？供应端压力较前期 有减弱吗？短期氧化铝强势状态能延续吗？未来需要重点关注哪些影响因素？文华财经【机构会诊】板块邀请氧化铝期货专家为您详细阐述。 【机构会诊】：氧化铝大幅反弹，主要受几内亚矿业政策扰动吗？几内亚采矿证撤销问题会对供应端产生什么样的影响？ 中原期货投资咨询部高级研究员 刘培洋：根据Mysteel报道，当地时间5月16日上午，几内亚矿业局对Axis矿区下达停工指令。该矿区包含顺达矿业等矿业公 司，涉及产能约4000万吨/年，2024年实产2300万吨（主要包括顺达1300万吨、中电十一局1000万吨），目前恢复时间不明。这是继5月15日几内亚政府吊销 46家矿业公司采矿证后 ，铝土矿供给扰动的进一步升级。受此影响，上周五晚间，氧化铝期货多个合约大幅上涨，盘中最高一度触及涨停。 中银国际期货研究咨询部有色高级研究员 刘超：几内亚是全球最大的铝土矿生产国之 ...

埃及5大尿素工厂突遭停产！市场预期印度或将在2025年宣布更多进口招标，尿素价格能否反弹走高？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent dramatic fluctuations in gold prices, questioning whether the current rebound indicates a reversal or a temporary recovery [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced a significant drop followed by a sharp recovery, leading to speculation about the future trend [1] - Analysts are closely monitoring market indicators to determine if the rebound is sustainable or if it will lead to further declines [1] Group 2: Expert Insights - A live analysis session is being conducted by a researcher, providing real-time insights into the gold market dynamics [1] - The analysis aims to help investors understand the implications of recent price movements and make informed decisions [1]

现货黄金较盘初低点反弹20美元，接近3300美元/盎司关口。 ...

期货热点追踪 铁矿石期货下跌，市场需求疲软，钢铁产量削减预期升温，铁矿石价格能否反弹？ 相关链接 ...

Group 1 - Spot gold has returned to the $3,400 level, rebounding over $20 from the daily low, with the decline narrowing to 0.9% [1]