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花旗颠覆认知:宽松周期反而将利空黄金,地缘风险触顶将加速资金逃离?解读投行分歧深层逻辑,“聪明钱”精准狙击案例或将重现?美元和黄金均出现“反共识交易”机会!
news flash· 2025-06-24 01:04
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the divergence among investment banks regarding the relationship between interest rate cuts and gold prices, suggesting that a loose monetary policy may actually be bearish for gold, contrary to common belief [1] Group 1: Investment Bank Perspectives - Citigroup challenges the conventional wisdom that lower interest rates will boost gold prices, arguing that a period of monetary easing could lead to a decline in gold demand [1] - The article highlights that geopolitical risks may have peaked, potentially accelerating capital outflows from gold investments [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The concept of "smart money" is mentioned, indicating that sophisticated investors may be poised to exploit emerging opportunities in the market, particularly in the context of the current economic environment [1] - Both the US dollar and gold are experiencing "counter-consensus trading" opportunities, suggesting that market dynamics may not align with traditional expectations [1]
半年大涨了30%,接下来还能上车吗?
大胡子说房· 2025-06-23 11:56
以下文章来源于大胡子财研社 ,作者湾区区长 大胡子财研社 . 真人实地调研,专注楼市研究10余年!大胡子教买房为您带来一手消息,助您预判楼市风向,实现资产 稳步增长! 这个资产是不是当下社会的财富共识? 有财富共识加持的资产,才是能长期上涨的资产。 2025年已经过去了半年,回顾这半年,投资层面真正有爆发性增长而且大家讨论很多的资产主要 有3个: 黄金、创新药、泡泡玛特 黄金半年上涨幅度达到30%左右; 创新药这边,大A的创新药指数半年涨了20%,港股创新药指数半年上涨50%; 最夸张的是爆火的泡泡玛特,港股半年时间大涨220%, 黄金属于贵金属、创新药属于热门题材,泡泡玛特是个股,单纯拿来比涨幅肯定不太合理。 但是这3项资产的共性就是今年的涨幅都远超市场预期,而且都跑赢了99%的资产。 那现在问题来了: 半 年就已经涨了这么多了, 那后续这些资产还有没有持续上涨的机会?我们这些普通投资者还能 不能上车? 首先,要判断一个资产能不能持续涨,最重要的一点是看—— 如果大家的共识是房子,那自然房产就是最好的投资品。 过去20年,东大最大的财富共识就是买房,所以房子的上涨幅度和投资回报率最可观。 而此刻,这几项资产 ...
清华教授刘嘉:人工智能时代,我们需要具备的五大能力
3 6 Ke· 2025-06-22 23:10
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of education from ancient times to the AGI era, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach that incorporates broad knowledge, practical skills, and interdisciplinary thinking in modern liberal education. Group 1: Historical Context of Education - Ancient Greek education focused on cultivating political and cultural abilities for the elite, while practical skills were reserved for common citizens and slaves [1] - The Roman era saw a shift towards practical subjects like law and rhetoric, enhancing the utility of education [1] - The 19th-century Prussian compulsory education system laid the groundwork for modern education, aiming to equip all social classes with necessary work skills [1] Group 2: Five Key Abilities for Modern Education - The five essential abilities for modern liberal education in the AGI era are: 1. Research: The ability to ask the right questions [7] 2. Statistics: Understanding relationships among various phenomena [10] 3. Logic: Inferring the unknown from known information [14] 4. Psychology: Understanding oneself and others [19] 5. Rhetoric: Persuading others and leading innovation [24] Group 3: Research Ability - The essence of research lies in formulating high-quality questions, which is crucial for scientific inquiry [9] - The ability to conduct literature reviews and apply critical thinking helps identify gaps in existing knowledge and challenge traditional assumptions [9] Group 4: Statistical Analysis - Quantitative funds utilize AI and big data to analyze social media sentiment and market data for trading strategies, reshaping financial markets [10] - The characteristics of big data (volume, velocity, variety, veracity) necessitate a data-driven mindset rather than just technical skills [11] Group 5: Logic and Reasoning - Deductive reasoning, based on first principles, allows for innovative thinking and problem-solving beyond existing knowledge frameworks [18] - The U-shaped thinking process encourages deep exploration of problems to reconstruct answers rather than seeking immediate solutions [18] Group 6: Psychological Insights - The concept of "Jonah complex" highlights the internal barriers individuals face in achieving success, emphasizing the importance of self-understanding [19] - Happiness is structured in three layers: material, psychological, and social, reflecting different stages of human pursuit [20] Group 7: Rhetoric and Communication - Rhetoric is essential for influencing others and shaping collective values, particularly in a rapidly globalizing society [24] - AI can enhance the effectiveness of rhetoric by analyzing social sentiments and facilitating cross-cultural communication [25]
半年大涨220%,泡泡玛特接下来还能上车吗?
大胡子说房· 2025-06-21 05:22
以下文章来源于大胡子财研社 ,作者湾区区长 大胡子财研社 . 真人实地调研,专注楼市研究10余年!大胡子教买房为您带来一手消息,助您预判楼市风向,实现资产 稳步增长! 2025年已经过去了半年,回顾这半年,投资层面真正有爆发性增长而且大家讨论很多的资产主要 有3个: 黄金、创新药、泡泡玛特 黄金半年上涨幅度达到30%左右; 创新药这边,大A的创新药指数半年涨了20%,港股创新药指数半年上涨50%; 最夸张的是爆火的泡泡玛特,港股半年时间大涨220%, 黄金属于贵金属、创新药属于热门题材,泡泡玛特是个股,单纯拿来比涨幅肯定不太合理。 但是这3项资产的共性就是今年的涨幅都远超市场预期,而且都跑赢了99%的资产。 那现在问题来了: 半 年就已经涨了这么多了, 那后续这些资产还有没有持续上涨的机会?我们这些普通投资者还能 不能上车? 首先,要判断一个资产能不能持续涨,最重要的一点是看—— 这个资产是不是当下社会的财富共识? 有财富共识加持的资产,才是能长期上涨的资产。 如果大家的共识是房子,那自然房产就是最好的投资品。 过去20年,东大最大的财富共识就是买房,所以房子的上涨幅度和投资回报率最可观。 而此刻,这几项资产 ...
淄博企业深度参与了一场事关中欧双向奔赴的大会
Qi Lu Wan Bao Wang· 2025-06-19 13:38
Core Points - The event in Qingdao focused on the cooperation between China and Europe in vocational education, highlighting the importance of high-skilled talent development [2][4] - The meeting gathered significant figures from both regions, emphasizing the successful collaboration in vocational education over the past decades [4][5] - The "Qingdao Consensus" was established, outlining key areas for future cooperation, including standard recognition and the establishment of a digital training platform [10][11] Group 1: Event Overview - The international exchange conference on vocational education was co-hosted by the China People's Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries and the China-EU Association [2] - The event featured prominent attendees, including former Spanish Prime Minister Zapatero and representatives from various European companies [4][5] - The conference addressed the challenges and opportunities in talent education and training in the context of the digital age [4][5] Group 2: Company Involvement - Shandong Rhein-Kost Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. played a key role as the organizer of the conference, showcasing its commitment to vocational education [2][6] - Rhein-Kost has been involved in vocational education for 21 years and has established multiple Sino-German smart manufacturing demonstration bases in China [7][8] - The company has successfully implemented the German dual education system in China, collaborating with numerous educational institutions [7][8] Group 3: Key Agreements and Initiatives - The "Qingdao Consensus" includes four main aspects: standard recognition, industry-education integration, dynamic curriculum systems, and digital inclusivity [10] - Several cooperation agreements were signed, focusing on talent training frameworks and international collaboration in vocational education [11] - The conference highlighted the increasing importance of vocational education in national development strategies, particularly in Shandong province [11][12]
市场的共识与潜在预期差
HTSC· 2025-06-18 08:14
固收 市场的共识与潜在预期差 华泰研究 证券研究报告 2025 年 6 月 18 日│中国内地 资产配置周报 核心观点 近期影响资产的宏观主线发生切换,市场对关税的敏感度在下降,对经济数 据、地缘局势的关注度在提升,而前期形成的市场共识也开始出现分歧与预 期差。地缘冲突对资产价格多为短期的脉冲式影响,而关税、财政政策落地 后的基本面状态,成为影响大类资产价格走势的中长期变量。不确定性环境 下,重申"重赔率+重左侧+重交易"的配置策略,尤其关注一致预期出现 反转后的交易机会。本周配置建议方面,当前市场处于关税政策的疲劳期+ 基本面数据验证期+地缘扰动频发期,在基本面降温以及地缘避险需求下, 前期计入较多关税乐观预期的权益资产赔率或欠佳,而债券、黄金等避险资 产胜率相对更高,仍需关注中东地缘局势、陆家嘴论坛等。 核心主题:市场的共识与潜在预期差 我们尝试梳理了五组市场共识与潜在预期差,以供投资者参考,并建议把握 共识反转后的交易机会。1)关税对市场影响力度降低,逐渐退化为扰动性 因素。关税对美国基本面影响可能偏滞后,但不会缺席。2)美国债务问题 恶化,美债利率易上难下,美元或长期走弱。但长期债务问题已定价较为充 ...
【马英九一行在宁德参访】6月17日讯,中国国民党前主席马英九率台湾青年17日在福建宁德参访。中共中央台办、国务院台办主任宋涛当晚在宁德会见了马英九一行。宋涛表示,两岸同胞都是中国人、一家人,要共担历史大任,坚持一个中国原则和“九二共识”,坚决反对“台独”分裂和外来干涉,坚定促进两岸交流合作,一起成为中国式现代化的参与者、建设者和受益者,共同维护台海和平稳定、推动祖国统一进程,共创中华民族绵长福祉,共享民族复兴的荣耀。
news flash· 2025-06-17 13:31
Core Viewpoint - The visit of former Kuomintang Chairman Ma Ying-jeou to Ningde, Fujian, emphasizes the importance of cross-strait relations and the need for unity under the "One China" principle and the "1992 Consensus" [1] Group 1: Political Context - Ma Ying-jeou's delegation included Taiwanese youth, highlighting efforts to engage younger generations in cross-strait dialogue [1] - Song Tao, Director of the Taiwan Affairs Office, reiterated the stance against "Taiwan independence" and foreign interference, promoting cooperation and peace across the Taiwan Strait [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The meeting aims to foster economic collaboration and mutual benefits between the two sides, contributing to China's modernization efforts [1] - Emphasis on shared historical responsibilities and the potential for economic growth through strengthened ties [1]
商务部,最新预告!周四下午3点!
券商中国· 2025-06-16 06:50
深夜突发,闪崩! 商务部定于2025年6月19日下午3时举行新闻发布会,新闻发言人介绍近期商务领域重点工作有关情况,并答记 者问。 来源:商务部 责编:罗晓霞 校对:苏焕文 百万用户都在看 暴增超370%!A股,重磅信号! 重大转变!美国下令:暂停! 午后,突发!集体飙涨! 李成钢:中美就落实两国元首通话共识及日内瓦会谈共识达成框架 违法和不良信息举报电话:0755-83514034 邮箱:bwb@stcn.com ...
定了!11月起,中国公民持澳大利亚签证,可免签入境新西兰
券商中国· 2025-06-15 03:59
6月15日,新西兰政府官网发文指出, 从2025年11月起,中国护照持有者如从澳大利亚入境,且持有有 效澳大利亚旅游、工作、学生或家庭签证,将可免签进入新西兰,最长停留3个月。 重大转变!美国下令:暂停! 午后,突发!集体飙涨! 李成钢:中美就落实两国元首通话共识及日内瓦会谈共识达成框架 违法和不良信息举报电话:0755-83514034 邮箱:bwb@stcn.com 百万用户都在看 暴增超370%!A股,重磅信号! 深夜突发,闪崩! 来源:央视新闻 责编:王璐璐 校对: 彭其华 ...
马英九:两岸人民之间的情感与交流无法中断
news flash· 2025-06-15 03:10
Core Viewpoint - The sentiment and exchanges between people across the Taiwan Strait cannot be interrupted, regardless of political forces [1] Group 1: Key Points on Cross-Strait Relations - Political forces cannot suppress or block the genuine interactions between the people of both sides, nor can they sever the natural emotional ties stemming from shared heritage [1] - Continuous communication and understanding are essential to reduce misunderstandings, avoid misjudgments, and build trust and consensus for cooperation and development opportunities [1] - Emphasizing peaceful development across the Strait, cooperation should be deepened based on the "1992 Consensus" and opposition to "Taiwan independence" to create a win-win situation [1] Group 2: Youth Engagement - There is a hope for more Taiwanese youth to engage in exchanges with the mainland, and for mainland citizens to visit Taiwan [1]