2025年06月05日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 5 日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：估值高位，反套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：供增需减，反套 | 2 | | MEG：多PTA空MEG逢高离场 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：短期震荡承压 | 6 | | 沥青：震荡延续 | 8 | | LLDPE：短期不追空，后期仍有压力 | 10 | | PP：价格小跌，成交一般 | 12 | | 烧碱：强现实弱预期，关注成本变动 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：短期低位反弹 | 18 | | 尿素：震荡承压 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：短期震荡运行 | 24 | | PVC：短期不追空，趋势仍有压力 | 27 | | 燃料油：弱势延续，短期将进入调整走势 | 29 | | 低硫燃料油：小幅 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 4 日 对二甲苯：估值高位，反套 PTA：供增需减，反套 MEG：多 PTA 空 MEG 逢高离场 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-06-03 | 6524 | 4628 | 4306 | 6338 | 3466 | | 2025-05-30 | 6618 | 4700 | 4349 | 6384 | 3428 | | 2025-05-29 | 6788 | 4814 | 4359 | 6500 | 3558 | | 2025-05-28 | 6590 | 4672 | 4311 | 6386 | 3469 | | 2025-05-27 | 6706 | 4740 | 4387 | 6456 | 3512 | | 日度变化 | -1.4% | ...

2025年06月04日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：估值高位，反套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：供增需减，反套 | 2 | | MEG：多PTA空MEG逢高离场 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：估值低位，有所反弹 | 7 | | 沥青：原油反弹，短线震荡 | 9 | | LLDPE：短期不追空，或阶段性反弹 | 11 | | PP：价格小跌，成交一般 | 13 | | 烧碱：强现实弱预期，关注成本变动 | 14 | | 纸浆：震荡偏弱 | 16 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 18 | | 甲醇：短期低位反弹 | 19 | | 尿素：区间震荡 | 21 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 23 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 25 | | LPG：地缘扰动，成本偏强 | 26 | | PVC：短期不宜追空 | 29 | | 燃料油：日盘跟随原油回弹，短期波动将持续放大 | 31 | | 低硫燃料油：大幅反弹，外盘现货高低硫价差暂时收窄 | 31 | | 集运指数（欧线）：高位震荡；10-12反套持有 | 32 | | 短纤：上方 ...

【供需方面】 供应：上周亚洲及国内PX负荷整体提升。亚洲PX负荷提升至69.4%（+1.9%），国内PX负荷至78% （+3.9%）。 【成本方面】 近期随着PX效益修复，国内外部分装置提负，以及前期检修装置逐步重启，使得PX供应逐步增加，叠 加产业链下游聚酯环节减产逐步兑现，PX供需面边际转弱，以及成本端油价支撑有限，PX上方承压明 显。不过随着下游PTA负荷逐步提升，短期PX供需面良好，且目前现货市场货源偏紧，短期PX仍相对 抗跌，关注下游聚酯减产幅度。策略上，PX短期关注6500-6600支撑；PX9-1轻仓尝试反套；PX-SC价 差逢高做缩。 5月26日，亚洲PX上涨8美元/吨至834美元/吨，折合人民币现货价格6905元/吨；PXN至268美元/吨附 近。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/05/23 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/05/16 445 1250 108142 63247 -433.62 40.45 95.0 111.0 31.45 179375 71900 2025/05/19 430 816 108142 61913 -103.15 218.98 95.0 111.0 15.52 174325 67550 2025/05/20 390 979 108142 45738 -23.85 170.67 94.0 110.0 3.16 170750 66450 2025/05/21 265 758 108142 41218 -527.73 57.47 94.0 110.0 14.01 168825 66000 2025/05/22 125 495 108142 31754 -701.34 264.30 92.0 108.0 15.88 166525 68650 变化 -14 ...

供应：上周PTA负荷提升至76.9%（+4.4%）。 需求：上周聚酯综合负荷进一步上升至95%（+0.8%）。虽然因高价原料有减产预报，可能要体现在本 周。5月21日，涤丝价格重心涨跌互现，产销整体偏弱。涤丝工厂目前库存相对较低，原料价格回落情 况下，涤丝价格维稳，加工差会有所修复。下游上周初有所集中备货，目前原料充足，近期以消化原料 备货为主。 【行情展望】 5月下旬PTA装置陆续重启，而后期PTA检修计划尚未明确，且随着原料端大涨，下游聚酯产品亏损扩 大，且终端经过低位集中备货后进入观望状态，涤丝产销持续偏弱，部分聚酯工厂有减产意向，PTA供 需存转弱预期，本周基差回落明显。然而昨日随着华东一PTA装置检修兑现，基差有所企稳。但短期油 价上行乏力且下游聚酯工厂存减产意向，PTA反弹承压。策略上，供需偏紧格局且油价不大跌前提下 TA下方空间有限，关注4600附近支撑；TA9-1关注反套机会。 【现货方面】 5月21日，PTA期货震荡上行，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差企稳。贸易商商谈为主，5月货在09升 水120~130附近成交，个别略高，价格商谈区间在4855~4935附近。6月主港在09升水120~14 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For copper, the inventory drawdown slope may continue to slow down, and attention should be paid to the consumption inflection point. For the monthly spread, the subsequent upward momentum requires substantial shortages or a decline in absolute prices [1]. - For aluminum, with the positive progress in Sino - US trade negotiations and the alleviation of global trade tensions, the aluminum price rebounds with inventory drawdown. The monthly spread long - short arbitrage can be held if the absolute price drops [2]. - For zinc, attention should be paid to the inflection point from inventory drawdown to accumulation. It is recommended to short at high prices, and the domestic - foreign long - short arbitrage can be continued [5]. - For nickel, opportunities for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [6]. - For stainless steel, in the short term, with long and short factors intertwined, the reverse arbitrage can be rolled over and held [7]. - For lead, it is expected to oscillate in the range of 16,800 - 17,000 next week, and the supply is expected to decrease in May [8]. - For tin, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - long term [9]. - For industrial silicon, in the medium - long term, the price trend is expected to be mainly bottom - oscillating, anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading large enterprises [11]. - For lithium carbonate, in the medium - long cycle, if the operating rate of leading mining - smelting integrated enterprises does not significantly decline, the price will still oscillate weakly [13]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the spot premium decreased by 125, the waste - refined copper price difference decreased by 221, and the LME inventory decreased by 1,925 [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic inventory showed an inflection point this week. The smelting plants were eager to sell under high monthly spreads, and downstream orders slowed down. The demand has strong current reality but weak future expectations [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 100, and the domestic alumina price increased by 42 [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased slightly, and the demand in May did not decline significantly. The inventory is expected to be drawn down gently from May to July [2]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 150, and the LME inventory decreased by 1,150 [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic TC remained unchanged this week, and the import TC increased slightly. The demand at home has general elasticity, and overseas demand has slightly recovered. The inventory accumulation inflection point is expected to appear at the end of May or early June [5]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the沪镍现货 price decreased by 150, and the LME inventory decreased by 312 [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The pure nickel production remained at a high level, and the overall demand was weak. The overseas nickel beans inventory decreased slightly, and the domestic inventory remained stable [6]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, 430 cold - rolled, and scrap stainless steel remained unchanged [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production increased seasonally in April, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs [7]. Lead - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the lead spot premium increased by 10, and the LME inventory decreased by 36,375 [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side has tight raw materials, and the demand side has limited overall demand. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,000 next week [8]. Tin - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the spot import gain increased by 5,126.89, and the LME inventory increased by 15 [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side has some alleviation of long - term ore shortages, but there are still domestic supply disturbances. The demand side has limited elasticity, and the downstream lacks consumption power [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the 553 East China basis decreased by 55, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 596 [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, there is a pattern of double - reduction in supply and demand. In the medium - long term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the SMM electric carbon price decreased by 200, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 152 [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall production increased this week, and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down. In the medium - long term, the price may oscillate weakly [13].

2025 年 5 月 22 日 商 品 研 究 集运指数（欧线）：短期偏弱，10-12 反套持有 | 黄柳楠 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 | huangliunan@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 郑玉洁 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 | zhengyujie@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 研 究 所 期货研究 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | EC2506 | 1,677.2 | -2.76% | 31,117 | 25,907 | 352 | 1.20 | 1.13 | | | EC2508 | 2,121.1 | -7.18% | 100,512 | 53,036 | 1,266 | 1.90 | 1.51 | | | EC2510 | 1,419.6 | -2.39% | 15,589 ...

2025 年 5 月 22 日 生猪：情绪偏弱，或阶段性去库 | 周小球 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | | | 单 位 价 格 | | 同 比 | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 14600 | | -150 | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 14250 | | 0 | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 14250 | | 0 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 15290 | | 150 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | | 生猪2507 | 元/吨 | 13285 | | -70 | | | | 生猪2509 | 元/吨 | 13650 | | -40 ...

2025 年 5 月 21 日 生猪：情绪偏弱，阶段性去库 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 14750 | | -50 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 14250 | | 0 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 15140 | | 150 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | | 生猪2507 | 元/吨 | 13355 | | 55 | | | | 生猪2509 | 元/吨 | 13690 | | 5 | | | | 生猪2511 | 元/吨 | 13360 | | -20 | | | | | 单 位 | 成交量 | 较前日 ...