推进城市发展与房地产市场核心政策导向相辅相成 1978-2024年我国城镇化率年均增长率 | 1978-1990年 | 0.71% | | --- | --- | | 1991-2000年 | 0.98% | | 2001-2010年 | 1.37% | | 2011-2020年 | 1.39% | | 2011-2015年 | 1.48% | | 2016-2020年 | 1.31% | | 2021-2024年 | 0.78% | 来源：新华财经、中国政法大学商学院副教授熊柴 此次会议也是2015年以来第二次以中央名义召开的城市工作会议。中指研究院政策研究总监陈文静表 示，经过十年发展，我国城市数量增加至694个，2024年有27个城市GDP超过1万亿元，城镇化率由2015 年的57.3%提升至67%，进程有所放缓；城镇人口也由2015年的7.9亿人增加至9.4亿人，每年城镇新增常 住人口超1600万人，而2021-2024年年均增加1033万人。她说，可以看出，在城市工作取得积极成效的 同时，城市发展也出现了新特征，城镇化进入了稳定发展期。 熊柴说，2015年、2025年的这两次中央城市工作会议召开的背 ...

中新社北京7月16日电 (记者 庞无忌)中央城市工作会议7月14日至15日在北京举行。这是时隔10年，中 共中央再次召开的最高规格的城市工作会议。 10年间，中国城市发展经历巨变：常住人口城镇化率由2015年的56.1%提升至2024年的67%，城市发展 呈现新形势、新特征。 其一，走新路子。 中国房地产业正告别此前的"三高"(高杠杆、高负债、高周转)发展模式，这一变化有望加速。 清华大学土木水利学院院长、清华大学恒隆房地产研究中心主任吴璟在接受中新社记者采访时表示，此 番会议明确重申了"加快构建房地产发展新模式"，意味着这与未来城市工作的主线相契合。对房地产业 来说，探索构建发展新模式会是一个影响未来较长时间的发展总纲和基础性制度安排。 中指研究院政策研究总监陈文静认为，房地产发展新模式包括完善"市场+保障"住房供应体系、改革完 善房地产基础性制度、建立"人房地钱"要素联动机制、高品质住房建设等内容，预计未来几年更多新模 式配套政策将进一步完善和实质性落地。 其二，"因城"开发。 今年以来，许多人感受到了房地产发展的"温差"：核心城市核心区需求旺盛、项目热销，而城市边缘地 区或者低能级市场依然承压。 此番会 ...

2025 年 07 月 16 日 房地产 6 月地产环比改善 销售规模环比改善，但同比仍弱 1-6 月商品房销售面积累计 4.6 亿㎡，同比下降 3.5%；销售额 4.4 万 亿，同比下降 5.5%。6 月单月销售面积 1.1 亿㎡，环比增长 49.4%， 但同比仍下降 5.5%；单月销售额 1 万亿，环比增 43.8%，同比降幅达 10.8%，其中住宅销售额同比下滑 12.6%。 开工弱竣工强，施工下行压力仍存 房屋施工面积累计 63.3 亿㎡，同比下降 9.1%，降幅环比收窄 0.1 个 百分点。新开工面积累计 3 亿㎡，同比下滑 20.0%；但 6 月单月新开 工 0.7 亿㎡，环比大幅上升 34.3%，同比降幅收窄至 9.4%。竣工端加 速显著，6 月竣工面积单月 0.4 亿㎡，环比增长 52.8%，同比仅微降 1.7%；累计竣工面积 2.3 亿㎡，同比下降 14.8%。 证券研究报告 投资评级 领先大市-A 维持评级 开工不足，开发投资持续承压 2025 年 1-6 月全国房地产开发投资完成额累计为 4.7 万亿，同比下 降 11.2%，降幅较 1-5 月扩大 0.4 个百分点。其中住宅投资 3.6 ...

Group 1 - China and Australia signed a memorandum on the implementation and review of the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement [2] - South Korea issued malaria alerts in multiple regions, with 266 confirmed cases reported [3] - The Central Urban Work Conference emphasized the need to accelerate the construction of a new real estate development model and promote the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing [6] Group 2 - China's GDP growth for the second quarter was reported at 5.2%, with a total GDP of 66,053.6 billion yuan for the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [7] - The National Bureau of Statistics is formulating measures to enhance market order and address "involution" competition in certain industries [8] - The Ministry of Commerce announced adjustments to the "Catalog of Technologies Prohibited from Exporting and Restricted from Exporting," including the deletion and addition of specific technology items [9] Group 3 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is drafting mandatory national standards for mobile power supplies, including safety requirements for lithium-ion batteries [11] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will enhance services for new vehicle registration and facilitate quick checks for companies [12] - The National Medical Insurance Administration has initiated the 11th batch of centralized drug procurement, selecting 55 varieties for procurement [13] Group 4 - A large-scale vocational skills training initiative will be launched from 2025 to 2027, focusing on increasing the supply of skilled labor in manufacturing and service industries [14] - A significant heatwave is affecting many regions in China, with record high temperatures reported [15] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a reduction in fuel prices, with gasoline prices decreasing by 0.10 yuan per liter [16] Group 5 - Beijing's housing provident fund policy has been updated to allow quarterly rent payments [18] - Shanghai introduced nine measures to support high-quality content creation in the internet sector [19] - A local outbreak of Chikungunya fever was reported in Foshan, Guangdong, with 478 confirmed cases [20] Group 6 - President Trump announced a significant trade agreement with Indonesia, including commitments for purchasing U.S. energy and agricultural products [21] - Trump suggested that the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates by 3 percentage points [22] - The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services laid off thousands of employees as part of a large-scale downsizing plan [25] Group 7 - NVIDIA's CEO announced plans to resume sales of the H20 GPU in China and introduced a new GPU compatible with the Chinese market [28] - Delta Airlines is reportedly disassembling new Airbus A321neo aircraft in Europe to avoid tariffs by returning U.S.-made engines to the U.S. [29] - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.18% and the Dow Jones falling by 0.98% [30]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Urban Work Conference marks a significant shift in China's urban development strategy, transitioning from rapid growth to stable development, emphasizing urban renewal and quality improvement in real estate [1][2][9] Group 1: Urban Development Strategy - The conference highlights the importance of urban renewal as a key strategy for high-quality urban development, aiming to create modern, resilient, and livable cities [2][4] - The focus is on optimizing urban structures, enhancing quality, and promoting green transformation, while ensuring urban safety [2][7] Group 2: Real Estate Market Implications - Urban renewal is expected to stimulate both supply and demand in the real estate market, with potential support from government initiatives such as special bonds and REITs [3][4] - The emphasis on constructing a new real estate development model reflects a shift towards quality competition rather than mere scale expansion, with a focus on green building standards and improved housing quality [5][9] Group 3: Policy and Implementation - The conference calls for local governments to prioritize urban renewal, which is anticipated to lead to more supportive policies and encourage diverse participation in urban development [4][5] - The ongoing efforts in the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing are seen as critical to revitalizing the real estate market and addressing housing needs [8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The systematic deployment of urban development strategies aims to achieve a balance between supply and demand in the real estate market, with expectations of stabilizing housing prices [9] - Future competition among real estate companies is likely to focus on green technology, operational capabilities, and deep regional engagement [9]

2025.07. 15 本文字数：2089，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 吴斯旻 时隔十年，中央城市工作会议再度召开。面对我国人口总量增速和城镇化率增速相继迈入拐点，此次 会议明确，推进城市更新，将成为当前和今后一个时期城市工作的重要抓手。 据新华社消息，中央城市工作会议7月14日至15日在北京举行。中央城市工作会议是党中央召开的最 高规格的城市工作会议。除了此次会议，最近一次的中央城市工作会议召开于2015年。 会议指出，我国城镇化正从快速增长期转向稳定发展期，城市发展正从大规模增量扩张阶段转向存量 提质增效为主的阶段。城市工作要深刻把握、主动适应形势变化，转变城市发展理念，更加注重以人 为本；转变城市发展方式，更加注重集约高效；转变城市发展动力，更加注重特色发展；转变城市工 作重心，更加注重治理投入；转变城市工作方法，更加注重统筹协调。 自上一次中央城市工作会议以来，这一高级别会议在布局未来城市工作时均突出强调了"因地制宜"， 提高各方推动城市发展的积极性和城市发展的宜居性，推动城市工作向内涵式转型，释放城市发展新 动能等内容。 根据此次会议对于当前和今后一个时期城市工作提出的总体要求，要认真践 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, indicating a positive outlook for these industries [5][14][25] Core Insights - The central urban work conference held from July 14 to 15, 2025, marks a transition in China's urbanization from rapid growth to stable development, emphasizing quality over quantity in urban expansion [5][6] - The conference highlights the importance of urban renewal as a key strategy for high-quality urban development, aligning with previous action plans and signaling forthcoming supportive policies [5][6] - The report anticipates that urban development will increasingly focus on core cities, with a shift towards improving existing urban stock rather than expanding new areas [5][6] - Future urban development is expected to differentiate between cities, with a strong emphasis on creating modern, livable, and resilient urban environments [5][6] Summary by Sections Urban Development Transition - The report notes that urbanization is moving from a phase of rapid growth to one of stable development, with a focus on enhancing existing urban quality [5][7] - The emphasis is on integrated planning for population, industry, urban areas, and transportation to optimize urban spatial structures [5][9] Urban Renewal as a Strategy - Urban renewal is identified as a critical lever for achieving high-quality urban development, with expectations for specific policies to be implemented following the conference [5][8] - The report suggests that urban renewal efforts will be concentrated in first and second-tier cities, reflecting a strategic shift in urban planning [5][8] Future Urban Development Focus - The report outlines seven key tasks for urban work, including optimizing urban systems, fostering innovation, enhancing livability, promoting green cities, ensuring safety, cultivating cultural values, and developing smart cities [8][9][10] - The focus on creating "good housing" aligns with the broader goal of improving living conditions and urban quality, with potential support for quality real estate companies [5][9] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies within the real estate sector, including those with strong product capabilities and those positioned for valuation recovery, as well as second-hand housing intermediaries and property management firms [5][14][16]

新华财经北京7月15日电（记者陆宇航安娜）"今年以来，各地区各部门按照党中央促进房地产止跌回稳 的决策部署和要求，'因城施策'出台相关措施推动房地产止跌回稳。"在15日的国新办发布会上，国家 统计局副局长盛来运表示，相关政策措施成效明显，上半年房地产虽然有所波动，但总体上还朝着止跌 回稳的方向迈进，未来需要下更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳。 专家及业内人士普遍认为，在房地产市场深度调整的当下， 加大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳的需求 也日益迫切，各地的相关支持政策或将进一步出台，因城施策、精准施策，提升政策实施的系统性有效 性，持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势。 三方面数据展现积极变化 国家统计局数据显示，上半年，全国新建商品房销售面积同比下降3.5%，比去年同期收窄15.5个百分 点，比去年全年收窄9.4个百分点；商品房销售金额下降5.5%，比去年同期收窄的幅度更大，收窄了 19.5个百分点，比去年全年收窄11.6个百分点。 在盛来运看来，这些数据反映出当前房地产市场交易量有所改善，商品房销售降幅同比收窄。"商品房 交易还是比较活跃的，尤其是二手房的交易量比去年同期是增长的。" 与此同时，市场价格降幅整体收窄，部分 ...

会议部署了城市工作七个方面的重点任务，包括优化城市体系、建设创新城市、建设宜居城市、建设美丽城市、建设韧性城市、建设文明城市、建设智慧 城市等。其中提到的构建房地产发展新模式、推进城中村和危旧房改造等内容，受到市场广泛关注。 广东省城乡规划院住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉在接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时表示，中央城市工作会议召开频率较低，距离上次会议已时隔 10年。城市发展方式从增量转向存量，从外延转向内涵，从房地产单边突进到统筹房地产与产业、就业和人口等，这些都是非常巨大的变化。 据新华社，中央城市工作会议7月14日至15日在北京举行。 会议指出，我国城镇化正从快速增长期转向稳定发展期，城市发展正从大规模增量扩张阶段转向存量提质增效为主的阶段。 01 进入城市更新的重要时期 根据中央城市工作会议部署，接下来城市工作将着力优化现代化城市体系，发展组团式、网络化的现代化城市群和都市圈，分类推进以县城为重要载体的 城镇化建设，继续推进农业转移人口市民化，促进大中小城市和小城镇协调发展，促进城乡融合发展。 在建设富有活力的创新城市方面，依靠改革开放增强城市动能，高质量开展城市更新，充分发挥城市在国内国际双循环中的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate industry [1]. Core Insights - The urbanization process in China has transitioned from a rapid growth phase to a stable development phase, with the urbanization rate reaching 67% in 2024, an increase of 6.76 percentage points from 60.24% in 2017 [2]. - The report emphasizes the need for a new model of real estate development, focusing on improving the quality of existing urban areas rather than expanding into new ones. This includes the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing [2]. - The report suggests that the new real estate development model will involve a mechanism that links population needs with housing supply, optimizing the housing supply system to include both affordable housing and commercial properties [2]. - The report highlights the importance of urban village and dilapidated housing renovations, with a target of adding 1 million units for such renovations by October 2024, which is expected to improve living conditions and enhance urban livability [2]. - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in leading real estate companies such as China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and Longfor Group, among others, suggesting that these companies may benefit from lower financing costs and high market share in core areas [2]. Summary by Sections Urbanization Transition - The urbanization rate in China has increased to 67% in 2024, marking a significant rise from previous years [2]. - The focus has shifted from large-scale expansion to enhancing the quality of existing urban areas [2]. New Real Estate Development Model - The report outlines a new model that emphasizes the linkage between population needs and housing supply, aiming for a more efficient housing supply system [2]. - It suggests a dual approach to housing supply, integrating affordable housing with commercial real estate [2]. Urban Renovation Initiatives - The report mentions a goal of 1 million units for urban village and dilapidated housing renovations by October 2024, which is expected to improve urban living conditions [2]. - The renovation efforts are anticipated to release additional housing demand through appropriate monetary compensation schemes [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading real estate firms such as China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and Longfor Group for potential investment opportunities [2]. - It also suggests monitoring quality developers and property management companies for investment prospects [2].