Group 1 - The China Securities 2000 Index (562660) has increased by 0.80%, with notable gains from stocks such as Guanlong Energy (+20.00%) and Deepwater Planning Institute (+20.00%) [1] - The China Securities 2000 ETF (562660) has risen by 1.31%, reaching a latest price of 1.47 yuan, with a trading volume of 518.24 million yuan and a turnover rate of 2.23% [1] - The latest scale of the China Securities 2000 ETF (562660) has reached 231 million yuan, marking a one-year high [1] Group 2 - The project "First Breakthrough of High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor Main Equipment Forging" led by Shanghai Electric has successfully passed expert review, addressing high-performance requirements for main equipment forgings [2] - A series of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption have been introduced, enhancing market vitality [2] - CITIC Securities suggests that the A-share market is transitioning to an incremental market, with a focus on sectors that can create consensus among investors post mid-year report season [2] Group 3 - The China Securities 2000 ETF closely tracks the China Securities 2000 Index, which selects 2000 small-cap stocks with high liquidity, presenting a complementary style to large and mid-cap indices [3] - The index emphasizes "specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative" companies, with a high proportion of emerging industries such as machinery, electronics, and biomedicine, indicating significant growth potential [3] - The top ten constituent stocks account for less than 2% of the total weight, highlighting a notable risk diversification advantage [3]

对于后市的指数行情，本周各家券商策略普遍积极。 广发策略刘晨明团队指出，当前市场所处的阶段可以概括为"上行收益和下行风险不对等"。即"下行风险"被锁住，"上行收益"则 有较大的潜在空间。 | | | 一周策略前瞻 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 券商/分析师 | 结论 | 逻辑 | 关注板块 | | -发策略 | 11 当前市场所处的阶段可以概括为 | 一方面,"下行风险"被锁住:4月央行答记 | 增加对受益远期改善预期、但对即期基 非美出口链(摩托车/逆变器/海风) | | | | 者问曾提出"在必要时间向中国汇金公司提 | | | | | 供充足的再贷款支持"，为后续监管资金的 | | | | | 增量子弹提供保障;而年初金融委明确了" | 本面不敏感的品种:券商、金融IT、地 | | | | 大型国有保险公司从25年起每年新增保费的 | 产。 | | | | 30%用于投资A股",因此保险资金下半年仍 基本面占优的品种:海外算力链、游戏 | | | | | 在徐徐增配。 | | | 刘晨明 | 上行收益和下行风险不对等"。 | 另一方面，"上行收益"则有较大的潜在空 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [13]. Core Insights - The policy goal of stabilizing the market has somewhat boosted market expectations, but marginal downward pressure has increased since April. The rapid decline in volume and price may have passed, with structural highlights in core areas and quality properties [6][10]. - The report identifies a significant gap in quality housing due to a high proportion of old residential buildings in key cities and the impact of price controls on the quality of new homes. This creates a foundation for product iteration and potential volume growth [3][10]. - The loosening of price controls is expected to lead to a revaluation of property prices, particularly for mid-to-high-end products, which could enhance product pricing power and profitability for developers with regional advantages and manageable inventory levels [3][10]. Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 1.94% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 by 3.03%, ranking 32 out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the index is down 0.81%, with a cumulative underperformance of 3.95% compared to the CSI 300 [7][17]. - The report notes that the real estate sector has shown poor performance this week, primarily driven by declines in development stocks, while property management and rental stocks exhibited mixed results [7]. Policy Developments - The Central Urban Work Conference outlined seven key tasks, emphasizing the transition from rapid urbanization to stable development, focusing on optimizing urban systems and enhancing living conditions [8][21]. - Local policies in cities like Qingdao and Changsha are being optimized to support housing exchanges and stimulate market activity through various measures, including subsidies for home purchases and revitalizing existing land [8][21]. Sales Trends - New home and second-hand home transaction volumes in sample cities are experiencing low-level fluctuations. For instance, the transaction area for new homes in 37 cities decreased by 18.1% year-on-year, while second-hand homes in 19 cities saw a decline of 7.2% [9][22]. - Year-to-date, new home transaction areas in 37 cities are down 3.9%, while second-hand homes in 19 cities have increased by 16.3% [9][22]. Investment Opportunities - The report highlights that the real estate downcycle requires three conditions for a trend reversal: the cycle must reach a bottom, economic feedback must be positive, and policies must be sufficiently strong. Currently, these conditions are challenging to meet in the short term, with investment opportunities primarily in policy expectations and structural segments [10]. - The potential for product iteration and stable cash flow in the real estate sector is emphasized, particularly for developers with regional advantages and low inventory pressure, which may yield long-term alpha and stable profit returns [3][10].

每周思考总第638期 | 标的 | 仓位 | | --- | --- | | 主板 | 高仓位 | | 中小市值板块 | 高仓位 | | 风格判断 | 均衡 | 《 增量资金有望助推市场维持上行 》 申明： 因合规考虑，自2025年4月21日后，暂停更新展示历史观点回溯模拟净值图。 本文表述观点，仅代表作者发稿当时的个人想法与思考笔记，仅供读者参考而不作为任何投资 建议。作者保留根据市场环境、新信息等适度修正观点的权利。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本系列周度择时观点回溯表现，2024年全年累计收益53.69%。2025年（至7月20日 ） 累计收益 6.62%。 1 本周观点 观点简述： 上周市场如期延续上涨，沪深300指数周涨幅1.09%，上证综指周涨幅0.69%，中证500指数周涨 幅1.20%。市场出现了更普遍意义上的普涨走势，且伴随此前强势的银行板块的调整，市场赚钱效应 较为显著，行业方面上周推荐的通信位列单周行业涨幅第一。 基本面上，生产数据因中美关系缓和反弹。 国内方面，上周公布了包括进出口、工业生产、社 零消费、货币供应等多项6月经济生产指标，整体呈现小幅反弹格局，具体来看进出口是结构分化最 有特 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Village BA" basketball tournament in Lianrao County has gained significant popularity, with the third edition set to feature 110 teams from 11 provinces, highlighting the growing interest in community sports events across the country [1][4]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "Village BA" basketball tournament has been held for three consecutive years, with the latest season starting on July 18 and running until October, featuring over 300 matches [1][4]. - A newly constructed sports venue specifically for the tournament has been built, enhancing the event's infrastructure and experience for participants and spectators [3][8]. Group 2: Community Engagement - Local residents, including non-professional players, actively participate in the tournament, fostering a sense of community and volunteerism, with over 130 standardized basketball courts available across villages in Lianrao County [6][17]. - The tournament has inspired local entrepreneurs, leading to the establishment of businesses that cater to the event, such as themed restaurants and service providers for players [10][13]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The "Village BA" has positively influenced local economies, with over 1,700 new market entities established as a result of the tournament's activities, boosting sectors like accommodation, dining, and retail [17][18]. - The event has also spurred the "returning geese economy," encouraging young people to return to their hometowns to start businesses, thus contributing to rural revitalization [13][17].

Core Insights - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of strengthening domestic circulation as a strategic move for stable economic growth, particularly through the development of the emerging service sector, exemplified by instant services like food delivery and retail [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The instant service sector is gaining attention, with major platforms like Taobao, Meituan, and JD investing heavily in this emerging market, indicating its significant potential and unique value [1] - Instant services cater to consumer demands for convenience, creating a new incremental consumption market that drives overall consumption growth [1][2] - The rapid growth of non-food orders, exceeding 13 million within three days of a promotional campaign, highlights the sector's ability to convert fleeting consumer demands into actual purchases, thus becoming a new growth point for resident consumption [2] Group 2: Empowering Traditional Businesses - Instant services are crucial for empowering traditional brick-and-mortar businesses by expanding their customer reach beyond geographical limitations through partnerships with platform companies [3] - The introduction of subsidies by platforms has attracted a large number of consumers, significantly increasing online orders for various types of businesses, including both food and non-food retailers [3] - Platforms provide digital solutions to enhance operational efficiency for traditional businesses, helping them optimize inventory management and reduce operational costs, thus creating new growth opportunities [3] Group 3: Industry Evolution - The rapid development of the instant service sector is leading to the emergence of an industry internet ecosystem that includes platforms, merchants, delivery personnel, consumers, and logistics service providers, showcasing vast market potential [4] - The activation of consumer demand through subsidies is attracting more merchants, enriching product and service offerings, and enhancing consumer experiences, ultimately driving the rapid development of instant e-commerce services [4] Group 4: Challenges and Solutions - Despite the rapid growth, challenges such as unhealthy competition and pressure on profit margins due to excessive reliance on subsidies need to be addressed for sustainable market development [5] - The design of subsidy rules is critical to avoid detrimental competition and ensure fair profit margins for merchants, while also providing genuine benefits to consumers [5] - Platforms should shift their focus from mere subsidies to enhancing service quality and optimizing supply chains to ensure the long-term health and sustainability of the instant service sector [5][6]

会议部署的七个重点任务，勾勒出提质增效的完整路径，犹如一套系统的施工图纸：以创新城市为动力 引擎，宜居城市为基础支撑，美丽城市为生态底色，韧性城市为安全屏障，文明城市为精神内核，智慧 城市为技术赋能。这种系统化布局，全方位贯彻了"人民城市人民建、人民城市为人民"的发展理念，从 不同维度回应了人民群众对美好生活的向往。不论是农民工落户、空气治理，还是文化传承，每一项都 直指民生关切。苏州居住证转户籍政策，杭州15分钟生活圈，南京社区养老实现街道全覆盖……这些生 动实践皆为人民城市建设的有益尝试。当城市发展真正回归人的尺度，将城市现代化道路注入新的发展 基因，这样的城镇化才真正迈入以人民为中心、以内涵式发展为标志的新阶段。 当前城市转型还面临诸多问题，城市治理体系还存在不少短板，公共服务供给与人民群众期待仍有差 距。这些问题的解决，需要持续发力、久久为功。值得肯定的是，中国城市发展已经找到了明确的前进 方向，从宏观规划到微观治理，从基础设施到公共服务，坚持问题导向、持续改革创新，必定走出一条 更可持续、更具活力的新型城镇化道路，这不仅关乎城市发展的质量，更直接关系着亿万市民的获得感 和幸福感。（作者系东北财经大学 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index is expected to remain volatile. The fundamentals of the index depend on the domestic economic recovery process. Although the market has high expectations for corporate profit recovery and inflation stabilization, the current main contradictions are credit contraction and insufficient demand, making it difficult for the index to break through the center and rise significantly. On the other hand, the A - share index will not decline significantly in the short term due to the improvement in corporate profitability in the first half of 2025 and the support of allocation funds [1]. - The bond market is also expected to show a volatile trend. The economic data in June was resilient, but under the care of monetary policy, there is no expectation of a significant tightening of the capital side, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is low in the short term. After the bullish factors have been fully interpreted, the bond market lacks the impetus to strengthen further [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index**: On July 16, the A - share market fluctuated flat, with the Wind All - A rising 0.06% and a turnover of 1.46 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index rose 0.3%, while the CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 300 indices declined. The auto and pharmaceutical sectors recovered, while the steel and banking sectors fell. The second - quarter GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and in June, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.8% year - on - year. However, demand disturbances still exist, and investment continues to decline. The central government emphasizes the construction of a unified national market, but the impact of the "anti - involution" policy needs to consider the transfer mode and scale of central government fiscal incremental policies. Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has slowed down, and the boost to domestic small - cap indices has weakened [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On July 16, the 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contracts fell 0.05%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.01%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.01%. The central bank conducted 520.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 444.6 billion yuan. As of July 16, the weighted average interest rates of DR001 and DR007 in the inter - bank market declined. The export growth rate in June exceeded expectations, and the financial data was strong. However, under the care of monetary policy, the bond market lacks the impetus to strengthen further in the short term [3]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 16, IH decreased by 0.14%, IF decreased by 0.24%, IC decreased by 1.88%, and IM increased by 0.33% [4]. - **Stock Indices**: On July 16, the SSE 50 decreased by 0.23%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.30%, the CSI 500 decreased by 0.03%, and the CSI 1000 increased by 0.30% [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On July 16, TS increased by 0.01%, TF decreased by 0.02%, T decreased by 0.05%, and TL remained unchanged [4]. - **Treasury Bond Yields**: On July 16, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds changed to varying degrees [4]. 3.3 Market News - The State Council executive meeting listened to the report on standardizing the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry, aiming to promote the high - quality development of the industry by strengthening cost investigation, price monitoring, and product consistency supervision, and establishing a long - term mechanism for standardizing competition. The meeting also reviewed and approved the draft decision on amending the Regulations on the Administration of the Entry and Exit of Foreigners [6]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures Charts**: The report presents the historical trends of the main contracts of IH, IF, IM, and IC, as well as their basis trends [8][9][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Charts**: It shows the trends of Treasury bond futures main contracts, Treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [15][17][18][19]. - **Exchange Rate Charts**: The report includes charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates between major currencies such as the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen [22][23][24][26][27].

冠通期货：豆粕盘面价格偏强震荡 供应端方面，豆粕现货市场基差稳中趋弱，反映供应压力。据Mysteel最新数据显示，截止第28周，全 国主要油厂大豆库存和豆粕库存上升，未执行合同下降，其中大豆库存657.49万吨，较上周增加21.09万 吨，增幅3.31%，同比去年增加66.14万吨，增幅11.18%；豆粕库存88.62万吨，较上周增加6.38万吨，增 幅7.76%，同比去年减少33.31万吨，减幅27.32%。需求端方面，据Mysteel最新数据显示，这周豆粕表 观消费量为174.96万吨，较上周增加3.80万吨，增幅2.22%，同比去年增加26.19万吨，增幅17.61%，豆 粕消费需求增量。综合来看，近期国内下游采购心态整体平和，豆粕库存出现攀升，豆粕盘面价格偏强 震荡，与美豆价格走势背离，主要因为国内市场情绪偏强，市场对于美国全面关税政策忧虑仍在，对于 后续美豆出口需求仍存疑，后期需关注美国贸易协议情况。 华联期货：预计豆粕短期或震荡偏强 7月17日盘中，豆粕期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至3033.00元。截止收盘，豆粕主力合约 报3029.00元，涨幅1.71%。 豆粕期货主力涨近2%，对于 ...

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