美联储主席鲍威尔：劳动力增长放缓会减缓经济增长，今年经济正在放缓，移民是其中一个原因。 ...

智通财经6月24日电，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美国劳动力增长放缓会减缓经济增长，今年经济正在放 缓，移民是其中一个原因。 ...

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures experienced a rise, with Shanghai gold quoted at 781.30 CNY per gram, an increase of 0.03%, and Shanghai silver at 8770.00 CNY per kilogram, up by 0.35% [1] - International precious metals showed mixed results, with COMEX gold priced at 3369.60 USD per ounce, down by 0.44%, while COMEX silver was at 36.09 USD per ounce, up by 0.38% [1] Group 2 - The price movements of gold are influenced by multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged, which has tempered expectations for rate cuts, putting pressure on gold prices [3] - The recent military actions by the U.S. against Iran's nuclear facilities have introduced new uncertainties into the global economy, leading to a sharp rise in energy prices, which could suppress consumer spending and investment activities [3] - Morgan Stanley's chief economist highlighted that rising oil prices, in the context of high tariffs from the Trump administration, could significantly pressure household consumption and overall economic growth [3] Group 3 - Last week, COMEX gold prices fell by 1.98% to 3384.40 USD per ounce, while Shanghai gold futures dropped by 1.99% to 778.58 CNY per gram [4] - Current CME data indicates an 84.5% probability of maintaining interest rates in July, with a 15.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut, and a 60% cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut by September [4]

英国央行：仍预期今年英国工资增长将显著放缓。 ...

瑞士央行：在基线情景中预计未来几个季度全球经济增长将放缓。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：美联储的预测已转向预期经济增长放缓、通胀水平上升。 ...

美联储FOMC经济预期：经济增长放缓，失业率略有上升，通胀率也略高于三月份的预期。 ...

植田和男还表示，意识到食品价格上涨对家庭造成了影响。食品通胀可能是暂时的供应冲击，但可能影 响基础通胀。食品价格上涨和中东冲突如果持续下去，可能会对趋势通胀产生二次影响，将密切关注中 东局势的动向。 日本央行面临着在持续的通胀压力和经济增长放缓之间取得平衡的挑战。作为日本家庭主食的大米价格 在过去一年里翻了一番，突显出通胀压力的严重性。自2022年4月以来，核心通胀率一直未缓和，这给 加息带来了越来越大的压力。然而，经济增长明显恶化，第一季度GDP年化收缩0.2%。且由于通胀上 升，实际工资同比下降1.8%，这可能抑制消费者支出，进一步制约经济增长。 盛宝银行表示，由于市场已经为今年余下时间计入了略高于10个基点的日本央行加息预期，日本央行的 此次会议没有引发太大波澜。在尚不清楚美日贸易协议具体内容的情况下，日本央行也难以做出明确预 测，日本央行可能会提高对通胀的担忧。 日本央行行长植田和男在政策会议后的新闻发布会上表示，日本的通胀预期仍未稳定在2%的目标水 平。 随着贸易政策效应进一步显现，必须关注贸易政策对金融市场、外汇市场、日本经济和物价的影响。穆 迪分析经济学家Stefan Angrick说，美国提高 ...

作者 | 独行侠 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 随着以伊地缘冲突的爆发，国际油价也跟着发生了巨大波动。 6月13日，国际油价一度大涨14%，最终收涨近8%。这已经在前两日大涨近6%基础上进行的，彼时美国宣布从中东撤回人员，点燃了市场对 中东地缘政治冲突的担忧。 受油价影响，周五港 A油气板块大幅上涨，其中，山东墨龙飙升75%，中石化油服大涨25%。"三桶油"表现不俗，中国海油上涨2%，较4月 初累升24%。 目前，涨价题材颇受资本市场追捧。接下来，油气板块是否还有更好表现？ 01 在 6月15日美伊正准备新一轮谈判之前，以色列以意想不到的方式对伊朗实施了军事打击，包括袭击伊朗重要核设施、精准斩首伊朗革命卫队 高管及核技术专家。 打击之后，全球金融市场一直在等伊朗方面的报复回应。 据多家媒体报道，伊朗在 6月13日发射了100多架无人机袭击以色列。之后，伊朗又发射了 数百枚弹道导弹 ， 目标包括特拉维夫的军事中 心、空军基地等数十个目标 。 截止目前，伊朗方面实质性报复力度被普遍认为是软弱无力的。接下来，以色列是否继续加大力度袭击伊朗，以及伊朗方面是否更大规模报复 以色列，都不 ...

Global Economic Outlook - The World Bank forecasts a significant slowdown in global economic growth, predicting a growth rate of only 2.3% in 2025, the lowest since 2008 [1] - Nearly 70% of economies have downgraded their growth expectations due to escalating trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainties, and rising protectionism [1] Regional Performance - The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is expected to perform relatively well, with a projected growth of 2.7% in 2025, accelerating to around 4% in the following two years [1] - Morocco shows strong economic resilience, with GDP growth expected to be 3.6% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026, surpassing the regional average [1] Economic Recovery Factors - Morocco's economic recovery is attributed to macroeconomic stability and a rebound in the industrial sector, particularly in construction and energy infrastructure investments [1] - The country benefits from declining inflation and a rebound in domestic demand, although this recovery is heavily reliant on stable food and energy prices, export growth, and relative geopolitical stability in the region [1] Challenges and Risks - Morocco faces high public debt pressure and limited fiscal space, with tax reform effects yet to materialize [2] - Global monetary policy tightening, capital flow volatility, and increasing regional security risks could impact Morocco's economy [2] - The World Bank warns that ongoing global protectionism may suppress investor confidence and reduce foreign investment inflows, posing new external risks for emerging economies like Morocco [2]