上半年，中国经济运行总体平稳，彰显韧性。货币政策、财政政策协同发力、相互配合，强化政策工具 逆周期调节功能，共同支持实体经济发展：货币政策维持"适度宽松"总基调，并强化结构性支持；财政 政策加力提效，突出"两新""两重"导向。 展望下半年，货币政策方面，降准降息仍有空间，以进一步降低实体经济融资成本、释放流动性。在结 构性货币政策工具创新方面，上海"先行先试"具有示范意义，后续相关举措有望逐步向其他地区推广。 财政政策方面，超长期特别国债资金在大规模设备更新、消费品以旧换新等重点领域加快落地，推动投 资消费。新型政策性金融工具预计将在三季度推出，可能由政策性银行发行专项债券，筹集资金定向投 入科技创新、数字经济等关键领域，弥补项目资本金不足，助力产业升级。 赵伟：上半年经济总体运行良好，外需强劲与内需改善共同构成支撑，预计上半年GDP增速在5%以 上。一季度经济开局良好，实际GDP增速5.4%。4月以来，经济延续向好趋势。拆分结构看，出口仍是 经济最主要的支撑力量，"抢出口"推动1至5月出口同比增长6%，相应拉动制造业生产增长6.9%。1至5 月固定资产投资增速3.7%，也高于2024年底的3.2%，主要得益 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2025 年 7 月 10 日 【粕类日报】短期扰动有限 盘面震荡运行 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | | 2025/7/10 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 豆粕 | 0 1 | 2993 | - 4 | 天津 | -70 | -90 | 2 0 | | 东莞 | 0 5 | 2704 | 0 | | -160 | -160 | 0 | | 张家港 | 0 9 | 2954 | 7 | | -150 | -170 | 2 0 | | | | | | 日照 | -140 | -160 | 2 0 | | 菜粕 | 0 1 | 2316 | 3 | 南通 | -201 | ...

南华原油市场日报 2025年7月10日 ——原油延续累库，成品油库存下降 杨歆悦（投资咨询证号：Z0022518） 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心观点】 EIA最新数据显示原油延续第二周累库，同API数据反映的趋势相似，但美国汽柴油库存持续处于偏低水 平，且去库趋势进一步强化了市场对需求回暖的预期。在此背景下，成品油市场的良好表现及裂解价差的 支撑，将推动美国炼厂维持较高的开工积极性，预计原油加工需求将继续保持稳健态势。 当前原油市场多空因素交织，利多因素在于地缘政治风险抬升、季节性需求支撑，利空因素主要在于 OPEC+增产以及宏观情绪偏低迷。从驱动逻辑上看，OPEC+增产在短期未能传导到现货市场，对原油市场的 影响偏向中长期。需求端，当前处于北半球原油需求高峰期，季节性拐点通常在9月，盘面可能提前交易旺 季拐点，利多周期有限。宏观方面，美国关税大限延期意味着达成贸易协议的概率增加，有利于缓解对全 球经济局势的担忧，对原油市场更多是短期情绪性驱动。地缘风险仍是主要潜在利好，但6月后冲突对油价 刺激效应料将减弱。总的来说，当前多空因素交织下，短期油价有支撑，盘面对利多因素的更 ...

美联储内部分歧推升金价 分析师看好黄金前景 金十数据7月10日讯，美联储6月政策会议纪要显示，官员们对利率前景存在分歧，金价随之走高。市场 分析师Linh Tran表示，如果通胀数据继续降温，美联储9月份降息的可能性将变得更加明显，这可能会 打压美元，并为金价进一步上涨铺平道路。与此同时，贸易紧张局势继续给全球经济增长前景蒙上阴 影，预计新的关税将通过提高进口成本来推动通胀压力。这种形势可能会加强黄金对冲宏观经济不稳定 的作用。 ...

关联产品： 银河证券表示，近期全球宏观风险再次升温预期，市场的风险偏好受到影响。中国6月经济景气度总体 回升。在全球权益市场中，港股绝对估值处于相对低位水平，科技板块政策支持力度较大，盈利增速居 前，估值处于历史中低水平。 中证海外中国互联网50人民币指数精心挑选了在香港及其他海外交易所上市的50家中国互联网公司证 券，旨在全面反映这些境外上市中国互联网企业的整体表现。通过"一键打包"的方式，该ETF涵盖了腾 讯、阿里巴巴、美团、拼多多等领先的中国互联网企业，前十大权重股占比约90%，高度聚焦于电商、 AI、社交网络、云计算等核心赛道，精准捕捉行业增长红利。 截至13:37，中证海外中国互联网50指数（H30533）跌0.39%，权重股中，腾讯控股跌0.4%，阿里巴巴- W跌0.2%，美团-W跌0.6%，拼多多跌1.2%，小米集团-W跌0.8%。此外，药师帮涨4.7%，中旭未来涨 3.3%，东方甄选涨3.0%，携程集团-S涨1.7%，众安在线涨1.3%。 中概互联网ETF（513050）追踪中证海外中国互联网50指数，近5日资金净流入超6.1亿，最新基金规模 超340亿元。 7月9日，港股通交投活跃，合计成交 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific outlooks and trading suggestions for various commodities. 2. Core Views - **Macro Environment**: Market uncertainties persist across different sectors, influencing the price movements of various commodities. The economic situation, policy changes, and geopolitical factors all play significant roles in shaping market trends [1]. - **Commodity - Specific Trends**: Different commodities have distinct price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and external influences such as tariffs and geopolitical events. For example, some metals are expected to face downward pressure due to factors like supply increases or cost - related issues, while others may see price rebounds or stabilizations [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories **Macro - Financial** - **Equity Index**: In the short term, with limited domestic and international positive factors, but decent market sentiment and liquidity, the equity index may show a relatively strong oscillatory pattern [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and a weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning about interest - rate risks restricts upward movement [1]. **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: Given market uncertainties, the gold price is expected to mainly oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price is likely to oscillate due to market uncertainties [1]. **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The potential implementation of US copper tariffs may lead to a back - flow of non - US copper, posing a risk of price correction for Shanghai and London copper [1]. - **Aluminum**: With the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and high prices suppressing downstream demand, the aluminum price faces a risk of decline. However, the domestic anti - involution policy boosts the expectation of supply - side reform, causing the alumina price to stabilize and rebound [1]. - **Zinc**: Tariff disturbances are increasing, and the expected inventory build - up is still pressuring the zinc price. Traders are advised to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: With macro uncertainties and a slight decline in the premium of Indonesian nickel ore, the nickel price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - term short - selling is recommended, and in the long - term, the oversupply of primary nickel will continue to exert downward pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: After a rebound, the sustainability of the stainless - steel price is uncertain. Short - term trading is advised, and selling hedges can be considered at high prices, while keeping an eye on raw - material changes and steel production [1]. - **Tin**: With increasing tariff disturbances, the tin price is mainly priced based on macro factors. In the short term, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the driving force for price movement is limited [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply shows a pattern of decrease in the north and increase in the south. Although the demand for polysilicon has a marginal increase, there are expectations of future production cuts. After the price rally, market divergence is likely to emerge [1]. - **Polysilicon**: There are expectations of supply - side reform in the photovoltaic market, and market sentiment is high [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The supply side has not seen production cuts, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital - based gaming in the market [1]. **Black Metals** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The strong performance of furnace materials provides cost support, but the spot market for hot - rolled coils has a risk of marginal weakening. Both are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, production has increased, demand is decent, supply - demand is relatively balanced, but cost support is insufficient, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is under pressure due to short - term production increases, relatively balanced supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Production has slightly increased, demand is okay, and supply - demand is relatively balanced [1]. - **Glass**: There is an improvement in the supply - demand margin in the short term, with stable supply and resilient demand. However, in the medium - term, oversupply may make it difficult for the price to rise [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply has been disrupted, direct and terminal demand is weak, cost support has weakened, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, short - term short - selling opportunities can be considered, and for coke, focus on selling hedges when the futures price has a premium [1]. **Agricultural Products** - **Palm Oil**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes a decline in crude oil prices, and palm oil is expected to follow suit. In the long run, international oil - fat demand is expected to increase, so a bullish view is taken on far - month contracts [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The near - month fundamentals are weak, but it may show a relatively strong performance due to the influence of palm oil [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long - term, macro uncertainties are high. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate. Overall, the domestic cotton price is expected to show a weakly oscillatory downward trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but if crude oil prices continue to be weak, it may affect the sugar - production ratio and lead to higher - than - expected sugar output [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term policy - driven grain releases and a low wheat - corn price difference have a negative impact on the corn market. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and for the far - month CO1 contract, short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the US, the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to tighten. If Sino - US trade policies remain unchanged, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter for soybean meal, and the far - month contract price is expected to rise. If an agreement is reached, the overall decline in the futures price is expected to be limited [1]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: With the cooling of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the market returns to being dominated by supply - demand logic. OPEC +'s unexpected production increase and strong short - term consumption in Europe and the US during the peak season are the main influencing factors [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: The downstream demand is showing a weakening trend, the supply - side production is expected to increase, and inventory has slightly increased [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There have been recent device disturbances stimulating the price increase, OPEC's unexpected production increase, the fundamentals of synthetic rubber are under pressure, and attention should be paid to the price adjustments of butadiene and cis - butadiene and the de - stocking progress of synthetic rubber [1]. - **PTA**: The PTA basis continues to weaken, but the crude - oil price remains strong. The polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of reduction, and the PTA spot market is becoming more abundant, with low replenishment willingness from polyester manufacturers due to profit compression [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The coal price has slightly increased, the future arrival volume of ethylene glycol is large, and the concentrated procurement due to improved polyester sales has an impact on the market [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber warehouse - receipt registration volume is low, and factory maintenance has increased. With a high basis, the cost of short - fiber is closely related to the market [1]. - **Styrene**: The pure - benzene price has slightly recovered, the import volume has decreased, the styrene device load has increased, the styrene inventory is concentrated, and the styrene basis has significantly weakened [1]. - **Urea**: Domestic demand is average, the summer agricultural demand is coming to an end, but the export expectation in the second half of the year is improving [1]. - **PE**: With good macro - sentiment, many maintenance activities, and mainly rigid demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PP**: The maintenance support is limited, orders are mainly for rigid demand, and the anti - involution policy has boosted market sentiment, causing the price to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PVC**: The price of coking coal has increased, the market sentiment is good, the number of maintenance activities has decreased compared to the previous period, but the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Maintenance is nearly over, the spot price has dropped to a low level, the decline in liquid chlorine has eroded the comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry, and the number of current warehouse receipts is low. Attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1]. - **LPG**: The July CP prices of propane and butane have both decreased, OPEC + has unexpectedly increased production, the combustion and chemical demand for LPG is in the seasonal off - season, and the spot price decline is slow, so the PG price still has room to fall [1]. **Shipping** - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: There is a pattern of stable current situation and weak future expectations. The freight rate is expected to reach its peak in mid - July, showing an arc - top trend, and the peak - reaching time is advanced. The subsequent weeks will have sufficient capacity deployment [1].

宏观日报 | 2025-07-10 宏观宽松延续，国债期货大多收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：5月7日国新办发布会上，央行宣布落实适度宽松政策，推出涵盖数量型、价格型和结构 型在内的一揽子十项措施，包括降准0.5个百分点、政策利率与结构性工具利率分别下调0.1和0.25个百分点、公积 金贷款利率同步下调，同时增设及扩容科技、养老、消费、涉农等领域专项再贷款，强化资本市场支持和创新债 券风险缓释机制，旨在提升信贷投放、稳定市场预期，推动经济高质量发展；5月10日，中美双方在日内瓦举行经 贸高层会谈，为时两天；5月12日，中美联合发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，声明指出中美双方 "24%的关 税在初始的90天内暂停实施，对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税。" ；5月20日，中国人民银行公布LPR下调：1年期 LPR由3.1%降至3.0%，5年期以上品种由3.6%降至3.5%，为近半年首次下调。同日，多家国有大行与部分股份制银 行同步下调存款挂牌利率，涵盖活期、整存整取及通知存款等多类型产品。此次降息与降存款利率同步实施，延 续了央行5月初提出的 "政策利率—LPR—存款利率" 联动调控路径。 2）通胀：5 ...

【棉花与白糖期货市场行情及相关数据动态】周三，ICE美棉上涨0.5%，报67.72美分/磅，CF509环比涨 0.51%，报13830元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增3515手至54.68万手。新疆棉花到厂价15163元/吨，较前一 日降12元/吨，中国棉花价格指数3128B级为15184元/吨，较前一日降9元/吨。国际市场上，近期整体驱 动有限，宏观层面多日内扰动，美元指数在97 - 98区间震荡。美国棉花实播面积超预期，生长状况好， 产量或环比调增、同比持平，7月USDA报告本周六公布。国内市场，昨日郑棉呈V字走势，环比小幅收 涨。郑棉上下方均有驱动但力度有限，低进口、低库存及天气扰动支撑棉价，新棉丰产预期强且处淡 季，需求支撑有限。短期郑棉破局动力弱，预计维持区间震荡，09合约走势或好于01，关注宏观及天气 扰动。消息显示，普氏预计巴西中南部地区6月下半月甘蔗压榨量4424万吨，同比减9.7%；食糖产量 295万吨，同比减9.8%；乙醇产量20.1亿升，同比减13.1%。现货报价方面，广西制糖集团报价6020 - 6090元/吨，部分调整10元/吨、涨跌不一；云南制糖集团报价5780 - 5820元/吨，上调 ...

2025 年 7 月 10 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 氧化铝、多晶硅期货将震荡偏强 黄 金、铝、工业硅、碳酸锂、螺纹钢、铁矿石、焦煤、玻璃、 纯碱、PVC 期货将偏强震荡 白银、豆粕期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2509 阻力位 3978 和 4000 点，支撑位 3940 和 3930 点；IH2509 阻力位 2742 和 2750 点，支撑位 2716 和 2710 点；IC2509 阻力位 5860 和 5888 点，支撑 ...

我们不是资讯的搬运工 而是有态度的发现者 万和财富早班车 2025年7月10日 ● 国内金融市场 ● 股指期货 · | 品种 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 品种 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3493.05 | -0.13% | 上证当月连续 | 2729.8 | -0.13% | | 深证成指 | 10581.8 | -0.06% | 沪深当月连续 | 3977 | -0.15% | | 创业板指 | 2184.67 | 0.16% | 恒生期货指数 | 30789.3 | -0.93% | 一、宏观消息汇总 1。国家统计局:6月CPI同比上涨0.1%,上半年比上年同期下降 0.1%; PPI同比下降3.6%, 上半年比上年同期下降2.8% 二、行业最新动态 1 2024年全国海洋经济总量首次破10万亿元，相关个股：中远 海控(601919)、中国船舶(600150)等 2.比亚迪推出"L4级自动泊车",机构看好增量零部件机会,相 关个股:德赛西威(002920)、伯特利(603596)等 3. 2025年以来创药企在营收 ...