微观流动性监测，银行大规模定增 20250701 摘要 偏股型公募基金新发表现良好，但近期发行规模仍处低位，6 月预计延 续震荡，受地缘政治风险影响，市场避险情绪上升。 截至 6 月 22 日，北向资金成交额占比小幅回落，活跃度下降，受美股 反弹和新兴外资谨慎态度影响，北上资金成交活跃度仍处阶段性低位。 截至 6 月 22 日，两融余额占比小幅下降，两融净流入较前期减少 30%，市场投资情绪不高，两融交易额占比处于阶段性低位，但仍有修 复空间。 两融资金净流入集中于下游消费和上游原料支持服务板块，医药生物、 食品饮料、石油石化行业净流入居前，非银金融、机械设备、电子行业 净流出居前。 存量股票型 ETF 本期净申购额收窄，科创板 50ETF、白酒 ETF、中证 500ETF 及国联半导体 ETF 净申购领先，消费类、创业板及信息技术创 业板 ETF 净赎回领先。 未来两周 IPO 规模预计 26.5 亿元，本期股权融资规模大幅上升至 4,300 亿元，主要受益于中国银行、交通银行及邮储银行的大规模增发。 本期产业资本净减持 85.75 亿元，集中在中邮制造和支持服务板块，机 械设备、电子及基础化工行业净减持领 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Sors Technology, a leading player in the global optical communication module industry, has established a strong competitive edge through its vertically integrated product line and IDM model [1] - Sors Technology's business encompasses the entire process of optical chip design and manufacturing, optical device production, and optical module assembly, showcasing robust R&D capabilities and vertical integration [1] - The company has achieved mass production of high-speed optical modules for data centers, specifically 400G and 800G applications, and has a stable order reserve [1] Group 2 - The company aims to complete the acquisition by the third quarter of this year, with all parties actively promoting the necessary approvals [1] - Financial data for the first half of the year indicates a significant improvement in operational performance, with detailed results expected post-acquisition [1] - Key profit-contributing businesses for the year include flexible circuit board, rigid circuit board, touch display, and precision manufacturing, while the LED business is currently operating at a loss [1] Group 3 - The Thai factory is primarily focused on module board production, with expected production commencement in the fourth quarter of this year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic capital market in China is demonstrating unique resilience amid a complex global economic environment, with a significant increase in the investment value of Chinese assets and a focus on technology innovation and new consumption trends as dual main lines for the equity market [1][2][6]. Economic Resilience - Fund companies agree that China's economic resilience and vitality are increasingly evident, despite uncertainties in the global political and economic landscape [2]. - The transition from old to new economic drivers is seen as a critical turning point, presenting vast potential for growth [2]. - The Chinese economy has reportedly moved past its most challenging adjustment period, with a sustained trend towards high-quality development [2]. Equity Market Focus - Fund companies identify structural investment opportunities in the equity market, particularly in technology and new consumption sectors [3]. - The A-share market is viewed as having upward potential at current valuation levels, with internal growth and policy benefits expected to drive independent market performance [3]. - The AI sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with expectations for strong performance driven by advancements in AI applications and infrastructure [3][4]. Investment Strategies - The semiconductor sector is recommended for investment, with suggestions to maintain a 30% to 50% position in semiconductor ETFs to capture long-term gains [4]. - New consumption trends are identified, including spiritual consumption and cost-effective consumption, which are expected to shape mid-to-long-term investment logic [4]. - Fund managers suggest exploring investment opportunities in experiential consumption, AI-driven consumption, and service-oriented consumption [4]. Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to maintain a positive outlook, with a return to a bullish trend following previous short-term fluctuations [5]. - Structural opportunities within the bond market are anticipated, with recommendations to embrace yield-bearing assets and engage in wave trading while monitoring policy changes and economic data [5]. - Specific bond types, such as bank subordinated bonds and convertible bonds, are noted for their potential to provide excess returns in the current environment [5].

6月以来，债券基金发行回暖，无论是成立数量还是发行规模均创下今年以来单月最高纪录，多只产品 展现强劲的"吸金"能力，纷纷提前结束募集。机构对信用债的配置力度显著增强，信用债ETF规模增长 迅猛。机构认为，在利率震荡背景下资金正加速配置信用债，尤其青睐长久期品种，但须警惕短期过热 风险，可关注调整后的布局机会。 华夏基金表示，今年以来债券市场经历了大幅波动，但投资者对债券资产的投资热情依旧较高，多只新 发债券基金提前结束募集，不少热门的债券基金被投资者逆势加仓。原因在于，债市历经大幅调整后， 债券配置价值逐步显现，不少投资者底部布局，力求把握长期的稳健收益。 资金加速流入信用债市场 从细分市场来看，近期机构对信用债的配置力度显著增强，尤其是资金正加速涌入信用债市场。Choice 数据显示，截至6月26日，已上市的11只信用债ETF总规模达2130亿元，近一个月资金净申购额超800亿 元。 其中，有多只"大单品"。比如，海富通中证短融ETF规模超500亿元，平安中高等级公司债利差因子ETF 和海富通上证城投债ETF规模均突破200亿元。值得一提的是，8只基准做市信用债ETF的规模均超百亿 元，易方达上证基准做市公 ...

越来越多一级市场的机构，正在加大对二级市场的关注度。 "我们去年开始试着配置二级市场团队，用一些自有资金投二级市场， 今年一季度赚了 60% 。 "某 VC机构合伙人张路（化名）告诉母基金研究中心。 其实，一级市场的投资人与二级市场有着天然的 "近亲"关系，此前许多头部GP也采用"一二级通 吃"的打法，在二级市场布局投资。但近两年，涉足二级市场投资，不仅只是头部GP，也出现了更多 GP的身影。 "我们也和其他有类似布局的机构交流过，大家的原因很一致也很简单：为了赚钱，为了生存。二级 市场流动性强，并且某些时候可以提供更高的短期收益率。我们在一级市场的基金现在募资很难，退 出更难，一级市场团队基本上重心放在投后和退出上。所以，做二级也是无奈之举。"张路表示。 " 参与二级市场定增是我们今年非常重要的一个策略 ，希望能够谋求转型的更多机遇。 "产业投资人 王方（化名）告诉母基金研究中心。 退出环境倒逼投资谨慎， 2024一整年，一级市场上有大量"零出手"的机构。不是不想投，是没有什 么可投的——一方面，项目竞争激烈，硬科技、新能源新材料等战略新兴产业项目估值水涨船高；另 一方面，投资机构更加看重DPI，对退出前景 ...

Group 1 - Barclays recently released its Q3 Emerging Markets Outlook report, indicating that global investors are diversifying their investment allocations away from the US [1] - Rising commodity export prices are positively impacting emerging markets, leading investors to refocus on emerging market assets [1] - Geopolitical disturbances and global economic slowdown impacts on emerging markets are expected to diminish [1] Group 2 - The weakening of the US dollar is a significant positive factor for emerging markets, as investors are diversifying their dollar asset allocations [3] - A shift in capital flow patterns is changing the global investment landscape, with increased demand for hedging against dollar risk potentially leading to more funds flowing into emerging market assets [3] - The foreign exchange market is exhibiting a complex situation, with oil price increases strengthening the dollar against Asian currencies while maintaining weakness against the euro [3] Group 3 - Emerging markets are showing internal performance divergence, with the Asian region's export performance remaining relatively robust [4] - Policy flexibility in Asia, supported by moderate inflation data, provides important backing for economic stability [4] - The Chinese market demonstrates unique resilience, with strong retail sales, robust exports, and favorable GDP data expected to lead to potential incremental fiscal policies in September or October [4]

"新"向未来——平安基金2025年中期投资策略会于6月25日-26日举行，多位行业专家对当前经济形势、 热门行业发展前景、资产配置等话题展开探讨。平安鑫惠90天持有期债券基金经理田元强发表《积极拥 抱票息资产，偏多参与波段交易——2025年下半年债券市场投资展望》主旨演讲时表示，2025年下半年 债券市场仍存在结构性机会，投资者应积极拥抱票息资产，偏多思维参与波段交易，同时密切关注政策 变化和经济数据，做好风险管理。 田元强指出，2025年上半年，经济基本面呈现出修复态势，但内生动能相对不足。投资方面，地产投资 拖累效应延续，制造业投资偏弱，基建投资虽在发力但力度有限。消费领域在政策支持下有所回升，但 整体增速仍待进一步提升。出口方面，海外经济体表现平稳，出口增速总量虽平稳但节奏波动较大。通 胀方面，CPI和PPI运行均偏弱，总需求不足，产能利用率偏低，通胀压力有限。 田元强认为，央行的目标体系暂未出现调整，稳增长和调结构仍是首要目标。资金价格方面，降准降息 后，资金价格实质回落，偏弱的信贷可能导致宽松延续。同时，维护银行息差，存款降息也在路上。 田元强表示，目前债市处于基本面平稳偏弱、货币政策稳健宽松的友好 ...

2023年以来，中国品牌越来越多进入拉美，尤其是巴西，在圣保罗的中餐厅也越来越多。背后是中巴经贸往来加强，以及更多中国企业谋求出海机会。 NE h F AUCMA CG100-BREATING DD电 从中国到巴西要飞越太平洋，跨越万里的旅程也阻挡不了中国企业的投资热情。 "巴西是南美最大市场，美的在巴西新一轮投资是因为看好当地市场潜力，这里家电渗透率还较低。" 美的集团（000333.SZ，简称美的）旗下美的国际美洲市场营销负责人汤权向第一财经记者说，未来美的在巴西的年营收有机会突破百亿。同样地，TCL实 业拉美营销本部市场部长兼巴西公司市场部总监陈磊6月24日告诉第一财经记者，TCL在拉美计划今年冲击百亿营收、明年电视业务冲击百亿。 除了销售目标，参展、设厂、设立研发中心是格力、海尔、海信等家电厂商进行的动作。中国机电进出口商会家电分会秘书长周南向第一财经记者表示，包 括巴西在内的拉美，是中国家电出口增长最快的市场之一。中国白家电向拉美出口去年突破百亿美元，今年有望增至150亿美元。深化拉美投资布局，有助 于中国企业市场多元化。 深耕拉美、完善本地供应链 过去半年，美的在拉美进行了新一轮密集的投资布局。除 ...

智通财经APP获悉，当前全球金融市场正呈现新动向：随着美元汇率波动性降至传统融资渠道之下，利用美元开展新兴市场货币投资的 吸引力显著增强。这一趋势背后，"抛售美元资产"的交易逻辑正重塑市场格局，受美国财政政策走向与特朗普政府关税举措双重驱动， 美元资产对突发风险的敏感度出现明显弱化。 值得关注的是，美元汇率波动与风险情绪指标的相关性出现结构性变化。监测显示，美元对上述六种新兴市场货币与标普500指数的90 日滚动相关性指标大幅走低，而欧元、日元与该指数的关联度却攀升至五年高位。这种分化恰逢标普500指数突破4月关税风波阴影再创 历史新高，叠加日本央行退出负利率政策及8月日元套利交易大规模平仓的影响，使得欧元和日元更容易受市场情绪波动牵制。 瑞穗证券首席策略师大森翔树指出，美元正经历角色转换："长期以来美元作为避险资产或储备货币的定位正在松动，其作为低波动融 资工具的特性开始显现。"他强调，当前通过美元融资构建的新兴市场套利头寸，对汇率波动的风险敞口显著收窄，这直接优化了此类 交易的风险收益比。该机构分析师Omori进一步阐释，美元正在融资领域拓展其影响力版图，这种角色转变为投资者提供了新的获利窗 口。 最新数 ...

Group 1 - The Southern ChiNext ETF (159948) has seen a 1.10% increase, marking a three-day rising streak with a trading volume of 20.57 million yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index, which the ETF tracks, opened high and rose by 1.08%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Feilihua (up 10.58%), Runze Technology (up 5.59%), and Betta Pharmaceuticals (up 5.23%) [1] - As of June 24, the Southern ChiNext ETF has experienced a scale growth of 1.672 billion yuan over the past year and an increase of 16 million units in the last three months [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs indicates that China's economic growth remains resilient in the short term, with exports exceeding expectations, contributing to stable GDP growth [1] - The firm anticipates that a shift from export-driven growth to domestic demand will require more policy support, predicting significant policy countermeasures in the second half of the year [1] - Galaxy Securities believes that despite increasing external uncertainties, domestic economic resilience is expected to strengthen due to ongoing policy efforts, with A-share market conditions likely to remain stable and positive [1] Group 3 - The Southern ChiNext ETF closely tracks the ChiNext Index, which consists of 100 stocks with large market capitalization and good liquidity, reflecting the performance of the ChiNext market [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Ningde Times, Dongfang Wealth, Huichuan Technology, and others [2]