芳烃橡胶早报 | P T A | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 原油 | 石脑油 日本 | PX CFR | PTA内盘现 | POY 1 50D/4 | 石脑油裂 | PX加工差 | PTA加 | 聚酯毛利 | PTA平衡 | PTA负 | 仓单+有 效预报 | TA基差 产销 | | | | | | 台湾 | 货 | 8F | 解价差 | | 工差 | | 负荷 | 荷 | | | | | 2025/0 6/10 | 66.9 | 574 | 817 | 4855 | 6880 | 83.34 | 243.0 | 388 | 113 | 85.6 | 83.0 | 87345 | 215 | 0.55 | | 2025/0 6/11 | 69.8 | 572 | 812 | 4825 | 6880 | 60.09 | 240.0 | 383 | 138 | 85.6 | 83.0 | ...

合成橡胶市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.13」 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周国内顺丁橡胶期货价格回升，主流销售公司高顺顺丁橡胶出厂价格上调200元/吨， 截止6月12日，中国高顺顺丁橡胶主流出厂价格在11600-11700元/吨。 行情展望：原料丁二烯供应相对充足，顺丁橡胶生产成本支撑减弱。近期国内顺丁橡胶生产企业 有较多检修及停车，部分贸易商开单补货跟进，但缺乏实际利好导致出货受阻，生产企业库存略 有下降，贸易企业库存提升。需求方面，前期检修企业装置排产逐步恢复至常规水平，本周国内 轮胎企业产能利用率环比提升，预计短期轮胎企业产能利用率小幅波动为主。 策略建议： br2508合约短线预计在10700-11300区间波动。 「期货市场情况」 合成橡胶期货价格走势 合成橡胶期货主力合约价格走势 来源：上期所 瑞达期货研究院 5 「期货市场情况」 来源：博易大师 瑞达期货研究院 • ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.13」 天然橡胶市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 3 行情回顾：本周天然橡胶市场原料价格提振，胶价重心上移。进口胶市场超跌修复，宏观情绪带 动下国产天然橡胶市场现货价格重心向上修复，但下游需求表现欠佳，谨慎刚需补货，持货商出 货承压，市场交投情绪偏弱。 行情展望：全球天然橡胶产区逐步开割，云南产区受天气好转，胶水逐步上量，原料收购价格坚 挺；海南产区台风天气来袭，割胶工作短暂受阻，岛内原料供应收紧，当地加工厂生产节奏放缓。 上周青岛港口保税增加，一般贸易仓库延续去库。海外货源到港量继续减少，导致青岛现货总入 库量持续下滑，轮胎企业多数刚需陆续逢低采购，采购情绪好转下带动青岛总出库量大于入库量。 需求方面，前期检修企业装置排产逐步恢复至常规水平，本周国内轮胎企业产能利用率环比提升， 预计短期轮胎企业产能利用率小幅波动为主。 策略建议： ru2509合约短线预计在13300-14250区间波动，nr2508合约短线预计在11600-12200 区间波动。 目录 ...

天然橡胶产业日报 2025-06-10 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13805 | 80 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 12155 | 105 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -885 | -15 20号胶6-7价差(日,元/吨) | 25 | 90 | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 1650 | -25 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 168567 | 145 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 33615 | -2675 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -19426 | 3270 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -3476 | -41 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 193220 | -30 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 30138 | 4233 | | | | | 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) 泰标STR20(日,美元/吨) | 13850 1 ...

3300-14000区间波动，nr2507合约短线预计在11750-12350区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 天然橡胶产业日报 2025-06-09 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 沪胶9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 13725 -870 | 75 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 20 20号胶6-7价差(日,元/吨) | 12050 -65 | 25 -40 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 1675 | 50 沪胶主力合 ...

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of June 5, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9400 CNY/ton, an increase of 50 CNY [1] - The CIF price of butadiene in China is 1150 USD/ton, unchanged [1] - The market price of styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11400 CNY/ton, unchanged [1] - The price difference for styrene-butadiene rubber-Taiwan mix is -2100 CNY/ton, an increase of 100 CNY [1] - The basis is 440 CNY/ton, an increase of 135 CNY [1] Production and Operating Rates - In May, China's butadiene production was 448,900 tons, a decrease of 1.3% month-on-month [2] - The production of styrene-butadiene rubber was 143,300 tons, an increase of 17.9% month-on-month [2] - The production of semi-steel tires was 54.15 million units, a decrease of 2.2% month-on-month, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.46% for January to May [2] - The production of all-steel tires was 11.82 million units, a decrease of 9.6% month-on-month, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.1% for January to May [2] - As of June 5, the operating rates for the butadiene industry is 68%, a decrease of 1.8% [2] - The operating rate for high-styrene butadiene rubber is 67.1%, a decrease of 8.8% [2] - The operating rate for semi-steel tire manufacturers is 64.1%, a decrease of 11.7% [2] - The operating rate for all-steel tire manufacturers is 55.7%, a decrease of 8.5% [2] Inventory - As of June 4, the port inventory of butadiene is 27,000 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons [3] - The internal inventory of styrene-butadiene rubber is 28,300 tons, an increase of 200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.71% [3] - The inventory of traders is 5,680 tons, a decrease of 680 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10.69% [3] Market Insights - According to Longzhong Information on June 5, the total inventory of butadiene in the domestic sample decreased slightly, down 1.66% from the previous week [4] - The inventory of sample enterprises increased by 2.07% from the previous week, with some enterprises undergoing maintenance, keeping inventory low [4] - However, there are increases in inventory at some enterprises in East and South China, affecting the overall inventory of sample enterprises [4] - The port inventory of samples decreased by 5.26%, influenced by limited ship arrivals [4] Analysis - On June 5, the rubber sector followed commodity fluctuations, with the main contract for synthetic rubber BR2507 closing at 10,960 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.27% from the previous settlement price [5] - In early June, domestic butadiene maintenance volumes remain high, but supply is expected to recover in the latter half of the month [5] - Overall production in June is unlikely to increase significantly, with short-term butadiene transactions being poor [5] - The tariff issue on automobiles and auto parts remains unresolved, posing challenges for Japanese and Korean automotive and tire manufacturing, which may lead to a decline in butadiene demand [5] - With the gradual recovery of Asian ethylene maintenance facilities and the expected arrival of Iranian butadiene in mid-June, China's butadiene import volume is anticipated to be substantial [5] - The supply-demand balance for butadiene in June is expected to be loose, with significant supply declines in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry, but still showing year-on-year growth [5] - The tire order situation is not optimistic, with high inventory levels dragging down tire operating rates [5]

丁腈橡胶行业周度报告 [2025年6月5日] 市场逻辑： ① 原材料丁二烯价格走低，丁腈橡胶成本利空明显。 ② 丁腈橡胶装置运行平稳，兰州石化3.5万吨/年装置计划6月7日停车检修，供应面存在减少预期。 ③ 下游工厂刚需采购或者消化前期库存，本周期市场交投平平。 表1 丁腈橡胶及相关产品周度均价一览表 | 产品 | 区域/品牌 | 本期均价 | 上期均价 | 涨跌值 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 丁二烯 | 山东市场 | 9350 | 9885 | -535 | -5.41% | 元/吨 | | 丙烯腈 | 山东市场 | 8225 | 8360 | -135 | -1.61% | 元/吨 | | 丁腈橡胶 | 衡水市场 | 16100 | 16160 | -60 | -0.37% | 元/吨 | 数据来源：隆众资讯 本周期（2025年5月30日至6月5日）丁腈橡胶产业链均价呈现下跌趋势，其中丁二烯跌势最为明显，受供 应不多因素影响，丁腈橡胶周度均价跌幅相对较少。 表2 丁腈橡胶供需数据一览表 | 指标名称 | 本期 | 上 ...

天然橡胶产业日报 2025-06-05 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 13545 -880 | -110 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -45 20号胶6-7价差(日,元/吨) | 11965 -25 | -55 | | | | | | | -5 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 1580 | -55 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 177633 | 173 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 42118 | -1554 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -19818 | 1500 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -649 | 1021 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 193100 | -200 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 19455 | 604 | | | | | 泰标STR20(日,美元/吨) | 1355 ...

能利用率环比下行，部分企业近期存短期检修计划，短期国内轮胎企业产能利用率仍存走低可能。ru2509 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 沪胶9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 13655 -835 | 205 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -25 20号胶6-7价差(日,元/吨) | 12020 -20 | 210 -35 | | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 1635 | -5 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 177460 | -5828 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 43672 | -4624 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -21318 | -4014 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -1670 | 535 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 193300 | -5190 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 18851 13400 ...

天然橡胶产业日报 2025-06-03 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 13450 -810 | 45 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -15 20号胶6-7价差(日,元/吨) | 11810 15 | -55 -25 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 1640 | 100 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 183288 | -1139 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 48296 | -1810 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -17304 | 5595 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -2205 | 645 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 198490 | -230 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 17742 13350 | 101 -150 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) | 14950 | -100 | | ...