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欧股本轮牛市走向终结?别忘还有了欧元
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-07 14:32
美股近日的反弹削弱了投资者对欧洲转向策略持续性的信心,但有分析认为,接下来,欧元汇率的强劲走势为投资者提供了新的机遇。 截至上周五收盘,欧洲斯托克600指数今年累计上涨6.6%,而标普500指数涨幅为6.8%。3月份时,斯托克指数曾领先10个百分点,但美国科技股 的强劲反弹扭转了这一局面。 然而,投资策略师认为,尽管欧洲股市相对表现有所减弱,但在货币市场上,欧元表现依然亮眼,为投资者提供了新的机遇。欧元兑美元今年以 来上涨14%,目前接近四年来高点,正逼近1.20美元关口。若欧元兑美元继续保持强势,将支撑投资欧股的回报,侵蚀美股回报。 欧元强势料将延续,或支撑股票回报 年初时许多分析师曾预测欧元将跌破1美元,然而到目前,欧元正接近1.20美元。德意志银行外汇策略主管George Saravelos在报告中指出,外国投 资者无需抛售美国资产就能削弱美元,仅仅拒绝购买更多即可。 据见闻此前文章,市场普遍看好欧元未来走势,多家机构预测欧元兑美元将在年底或未来12个月内升至1.20美元。欧元上一次出现1.20美元的水平 还是在四年前。然而,如果1.17美元的阻力位未能被突破,则可能会引发一波获利回吐或资金流再平衡。 ...
市场消息:西班牙经济部长卡洛斯·库埃波退出欧元集团主席竞选。
news flash· 2025-07-07 12:39
市场消息:西班牙经济部长卡洛斯·库埃波退出欧元集团主席竞选。 ...
欧元发力国际化,对人民币有何启示 | 国际
清华金融评论· 2025-07-07 11:37
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the international status of the euro and the potential for the renminbi (RMB) to increase its international role, particularly in light of recent U.S. tariff policies that have altered the dynamics of global financial markets [2][10][21]. Euro's International Role - The euro's international status has remained stable in recent years, with some progress in areas like "reverse Yankee" bonds due to U.S. tariff policies, which have prompted investors to seek alternative currencies [2][7]. - The "International Role Composite Index" introduced in the Lagarde report measures a currency's role in international bonds, cross-border deposits, global foreign exchange reserves, and international settlements [6]. - The euro's share in official foreign exchange reserves has remained around 20% since 2015, while the RMB's share was 2.2% in 2024, down approximately 0.4 percentage points from 2022 [6][17]. Impact of U.S. Policies - U.S. tariff policies have created opportunities for the euro to enhance its international role by breaking the traditional negative correlation between U.S. stocks and bonds, leading investors to diversify into other currencies [10][11]. - The report emphasizes that for the euro to capitalize on these opportunities, Europe must eliminate internal financial market fragmentation and establish a unified capital market [11] . Challenges from Digital Currencies - The rise of cryptocurrencies poses challenges to the international monetary system, with the U.S. actively developing policies around digital assets that could affect global financial stability [13][14]. - The report calls for Europe to accelerate the development of a digital euro and improve cross-border payment systems to strengthen the euro's international position [14]. Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical factors are increasingly seen as significant in shaping the international monetary system, with a notable rise in gold's share in foreign exchange reserves attributed to concerns over geopolitical risks [16]. - The report indicates that military power is linked to a currency's international status, suggesting that the euro lags behind the dollar partly due to the latter's geopolitical security backing [17][18]. Recommendations for RMB - The article suggests that China should leverage its economic position to enhance the RMB's international role without compromising financial security, focusing on practical measures rather than a formal internationalization roadmap [20][21]. - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining economic growth to bolster the RMB's international status, as perceptions of slowing growth could diminish its appeal [21].
提醒:北京时间17:00,将公布欧元区5月零售销售数据。
news flash· 2025-07-07 08:53
提醒:北京时间17:00,将公布欧元区5月零售销售数据。 ...
欧洲央行管委森特诺:欧元区经济疲软可能导致欧元兑美元汇率修正。
news flash· 2025-07-07 07:27
欧洲央行管委森特诺:欧元区经济疲软可能导致欧元兑美元汇率修正。 欧元/美元 ...
欧洲央行管委Centeno:认为通胀持续低于2%是主要风险。欧元区经济疲软可能导致欧元兑美元汇率修正。进一步降息的幅度和时机尚难确定。
news flash· 2025-07-07 07:27
欧元区经济疲软可能导致欧元兑美元汇率修正。 进一步降息的幅度和时机尚难确定。 欧洲央行管委Centeno:认为通胀持续低于2%是主要风险。 ...
法国五年期国债收益率2005年来首超意大利,欧元区债市秩序重构
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-07-04 11:38
本周欧元区债市格局迎来历史性转折:法国五年期国债收益率自2005年以来首次超越意大利同期债券,成为欧元区主要经济体中收益率最高的品种,在欧洲 大陆仅次于拉脱维亚。这一现象标志着传统"核心-外围"债市分界线的加速消融,市场焦点正转向法国十年期国债何时与意大利完成收益率趋同。 值得关注的是,法国基准国债收益率已超过曾深陷主权债务危机的希腊和葡萄牙,成为欧元区核心国中表现最弱的债券市场。 里格尔强调,当前法国债市面临的"基本面与政治背景双重挑战"前所罕见。随着欧央行货币政策转向,市场对各国财政可持续性的敏感度提升,传统避险资 产的定价逻辑正在被重新书写。此次债市倒挂中,意大利、希腊等前期"高风险"国家反而成为受益者,其改革成效正逐步获得投资者认可。 德国商业银行利率与信贷研究主管克里斯托夫.里格尔指出,巴黎当前的政治僵局与财政改革受阻,已对法国债务吸引力构成实质性冲击。作为欧元区传 统"安全资产"代表,法国债券竟与素以财政宽松著称的意大利站在同一风险定价水平——意大利10年期国债相对于法国的收益率溢价已收窄至17个基点,创 2007年以来最低纪录,较三年前近200个基点的差距大幅缩水。 尽管法国五年期国债期限较意大 ...
警惕欧元走强!欧洲央行恐面临长期通胀失守2%风险
智通财经网· 2025-07-04 11:20
Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) faces challenges in achieving its inflation target due to a significant appreciation of the euro, which has risen approximately 14% since January [1][4] - ECB's Francois Villeroy de Galhau indicated that a sustained 10% rise in the euro could lower inflation by 0.2 percentage points annually over the next three years, increasing the risk of not meeting the inflation target [1] - ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos noted that a rise in the euro to above 1.20 USD could complicate matters, highlighting concerns about the negative impact of currency appreciation on exporters [4] Group 2 - Villeroy emphasized that the ECB will not adjust its policies to target specific exchange rates, acknowledging the significant impact of euro appreciation on inflation [4] - The ECB is expected to maintain a flexible approach, with Villeroy suggesting that further easing of monetary policy may be necessary in the next six months [4][6] - Current inflation in France has been below 2% since August of the previous year, dropping to 0.7% in May, which is the lowest level in over four years [6]