2025 年 7 月 2 日 原油：震荡整理，三季度或再转强 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan021151@gtjas.com 【国际原油】 WTI8 月原油期货收涨 0.34 美元/桶，涨幅 0.52%，报 65.45 美元/桶；布伦特 9 月原油期货收 涨 0.37 美元/桶，涨幅 0.55%，报 67.11 美元/桶；SC2508 原油期货收涨 1.00 元/桶，涨幅 0.20%， 报 498.00 元/桶。 5. 美国至 6 月 28 日当周 API 原油库存 68 万桶，预期-225.7 万桶，前值-427.7 万桶。 10. 据消息人士和路透社计算，哈萨克斯坦上半年原油产量同比增长 13%，达到 179 万桶/日。 11. 金十数据 7 月 1 日讯，德国商业银行经济学家文森特·斯塔默指出，尽管 6 月欧元区通胀率达 到了欧洲央行 2%的目标，但在未来数月可能再度下滑。此前通胀回升主要受油价推动——以伊 冲突升级曾导致油价短期暴涨逾 10%。斯塔默表示，随着月末油价回落，通胀率或将同步下行。 但他同时指出，考虑到美国关税政策的不确定性，欧洲央行本月晚些时候料将暂 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current economic conditions in the Eurozone do not warrant further monetary easing, as the economy is gradually recovering and inflation is near target levels [1][3]. Economic Policy - The European Central Bank (ECB) can maintain stable borrowing costs during its upcoming meeting, as there have been eight rate cuts since June 2024 and inflation is "basically at target" [1]. - ECB officials believe that the inflation rate will stabilize around the 2% target in the medium term after dipping below this level in 2026 [3]. Trade Relations - The ECB is closely monitoring the evolving trade relationship between the EU and the US, particularly the impact of tariffs set by the Trump administration on the EU economy [3]. - There is uncertainty regarding the specific situation in September, but officials expect to gain clearer insights into trade and fiscal plans for better assessments [3]. Inflation Risks - Risks affecting the inflation outlook, such as potential supply chain disruptions, fiscal spending, and energy price fluctuations, are considered to be in a balanced state [3]. - The strong euro, which has appreciated by 14% against the dollar since the beginning of the year, may complicate policy decisions for the ECB [3][4]. Currency Impact - A strong euro can lower import prices and reduce the competitiveness of exports, both of which can suppress inflation [4]. - Despite the rapid appreciation of the euro, ECB officials do not express significant concern, noting that the current exchange rate remains within historical ranges [4].

在欧洲央行管委卡扎克斯释放出"欧元走强可能促使进一步降息"的信号之后，市场对于未来欧洲货币政策路径 的关注度显著提升。这番言论虽未构成明确的政策指引，但其所暗示的潜在影响却不容忽视。在通胀压力逐 步回落、欧元区经济增长乏力的背景下，汇率变动正逐渐成为欧洲央行决策中的权重因素。 Vatee外汇从现实数据看，欧元近期持续升值已开始对进口价格形成压制作用，特别是在大宗商品与能源输入 成本方面，这可能会进一步拖累通胀回升的动能。这对于一个正在努力实现"通胀可控且不低于目标区间"的央 行而言，是一个必须面对的复杂变量。尤其在刚刚开启宽松周期之后，倘若通胀持续疲软，进一步的政策支 持动作便显得更为必要。 另一方面，卡扎克斯强调的"渐进式调整"也揭示出欧洲央行当前的操作原则，即"稳字当头，缓步试探"。这种 策略背后其实是对全球经济不确定性仍存的警觉，也是对外部变量（如美国政策走向、地缘摩擦、金融市场 稳定性）的应对方式。简言之，即便欧元升值提供了降息的空间，也不意味着政策会立刻迅速转向，更多将 表现为"一次微调+数据验证"的节奏。 对于市场参与者而言，这样的表态仍构成了一种宽松信号。欧洲国债收益率近期已出现小幅回落，金融条 ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that inflation is performing as expected, with an anticipated rise in summer inflation data and a gradual cooling of the labor market [1] - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates in June, but there is a divergence among officials regarding future rate paths, with 10 decision-makers expecting at least two rate cuts this year [1] - Powell emphasized the need to observe summer data before making decisions, acknowledging the uncertainty surrounding tariff impacts on inflation [1] Group 2 - Despite pressure from Trump for rate cuts, the Federal Reserve has not yet lowered rates this year, primarily to assess whether tariff-induced price increases will lead to persistent inflation [2] - European Central Bank President Lagarde stated that while the mission is not complete, the goals have been achieved, and the ECB is prepared to address complex economic situations [2] - Bank of England Governor Bailey noted that the direction of interest rates is downward, attributing current inflation to administrative pricing factors amid signs of economic and labor market weakness [2]

欧洲央行行长拉加德：我们并未宣告任务完成，但目标已达到。 ...

金十数据7月1日讯，欧洲央行管委穆勒周二表示，欧洲央行可以暂缓进一步调整利率，且在本轮周期内 没有必要大幅放宽货币政策。自去年6月以来，欧洲央行已累计下调基准存款利率2个百分点，但已暗示 7月将按兵不动。金融市场预计央行将维持更长时间的观望，仅可能在年底前再次降息。穆勒表示："政 策保持稳定是合理之举。"他称7月维持利率不变合乎情理，并指出："虽然现在讨论秋季政策为时过 早，但可以合理假设当前周期内不应进一步大幅降息——除非欧元区经济表现远逊预期。" 欧洲央行管委穆勒：7月份无需调整利率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is facing a delicate balance regarding its decision on future interest rate cuts as inflation continues to cool down [1] Inflation Trends - Overall inflation rate in June increased slightly to 2.0% from 1.9% in May, while core inflation remained stable at 2.3% [1] - Service sector inflation saw only a minor increase, providing some comfort to policymakers [1] Future Projections - The economist predicts that inflation will likely remain below 2% for most of the next two years, driven by expectations of falling oil prices [1] - The analysis suggests that the battle against inflation has largely been won, but this creates a challenging decision for the ECB regarding the end of the current easing cycle [1]

金十数据7月1日讯，德国商业银行经济学家文森特·斯塔默指出，尽管6月欧元区通胀率达到了欧洲央行 2%的目标，但在未来数月可能再度下滑。此前通胀回升主要受油价推动——以伊冲突升级曾导致油价 短期暴涨逾10%。斯塔默表示，随着月末油价回落，通胀率或将同步下行。但他同时指出，考虑到美国 关税政策的不确定性，欧洲央行本月晚些时候料将暂停行动。斯塔默补充道，由于关税措施将抑制欧洲 出口并对商品价格构成下行压力，欧洲央行很可能在秋季实施降息。 德商银行：欧元区通胀或随油价回落而走低 ...

智通财经APP获悉，欧元区6月通胀率最终定格在欧洲央行设定的2%目标水平，这为持续一年的降息周 期按下暂停键提供了有力依据。 德国央行行长Joachim Nagel周二表示，欧洲央行在物价方面已驶入"平静水域"，但同时警告不可掉以轻 心。欧元区消费者月度调查佐证了这一判断，显示对未来12个月及三年期的通胀预期均呈下降趋势。 欧盟统计局周二公布数据显示，消费者价格指数同比上涨2%，较5月的1.9%略有回升，与预期中值完全 吻合。核心通胀率如预期维持在2.3%，而备受关注的服务业通胀指标则微升至3.3%。 欧元走强与能源成本下降正有效抑制物价上行压力，而欧元区20国经济整体疲软的态势同样构成制约因 素。6月数据显示，德国通胀意外放缓，法国与西班牙略有回升，意大利则保持稳定。 这一数据印证了欧洲央行首席经济学家Philip Lane及其同僚的判断——尽管特朗普关税政策和中东战事 使前景充满变数，但通胀管控进程已接近收官。 Bloomberg Economics的Simona Delle Chiaie表示："虽然整体通胀降温趋势依然稳固，但服务业通胀势头 的近期回升值得警惕。展望未来，随着薪资压力缓解和经济活动走弱， ...

欧洲央行管委卡扎克斯：任何进一步的降息幅度都将很有限。 ...