Group 1 - The Iranian parliament's National Security Committee has concluded that the Strait of Hormuz should be closed, but the final decision rests with the Supreme National Security Council [1][3] - Following the announcement, Bitcoin (BTC) dropped from $102,810 to a low of $98,200 before recovering to around $100,800, while Ethereum (ETH) fell to $2,111, marking a four-day decline [1] - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz could severely impact Iran's economy, leading to increased hardship for its citizens and potentially accelerating a legitimacy crisis for the regime [3] Group 2 - Historical context shows that Iran has previously threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz but has not followed through, indicating a potential reluctance to implement such a decision now [3] - Analysts suggest that if Iran acts rationally, it is unlikely to close the Strait, as the consequences would outweigh the benefits, leading to increased international isolation [3] - Market reactions indicate a significant sell-off in the cryptocurrency space, with over $658 million in liquidations occurring within 24 hours, primarily affecting long positions [1][4] Group 3 - Current market sentiment among traders is mixed, with some viewing the recent price drops as a buying opportunity, while others express caution due to declining demand for Bitcoin [4][7] - On-chain data suggests that Bitcoin may find support around $92,000, which corresponds to the actual cost price for traders during the bull market [7] - Ethereum's price has retraced nearly 20% from its highs, but analysts believe it is not yet the optimal time to buy, as a significant portion of circulating supply remains in profit [7]

宏观研究 霍尔木兹海峡介于伊朗与阿拉伯半岛的阿曼角之间。海峡北岸是伊朗，海峡南 岸是阿曼；东接阿曼湾，西连波斯湾，是波斯湾通往印度洋的唯一出口。 霍尔木兹海峡是全球能源贸易的咽喉要道。2024 年全球石油和其他液体燃料 的消费量大约 102.7 百万桶/天，其中大约 75.5 百万桶/日是通过海运运输，占 比约 74%。而流经霍尔木兹海峡的石油和其他液体燃料的贸易量大约 20.3 百 万桶/天，占全球消费量约 20%，占全球海运贸易量约 27%。此外，2023 年全 球天然气消费约 3.96 万亿立方米，其中贸易量占比约 32%。在天然气贸易中， LNG 贸易量占天然气贸易量的比例约 46%。2024 年流经霍尔木兹海峡的 LNG 贸易量约占全球 LNG 贸易量的 20%，即约占全球天然气贸易量的 9%。 ❖ 二、封锁海峡，哪些地区受影响最大？ 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 霍尔木兹海峡有多重要？ 主要观点 本轮伊以冲突以来，伊朗再次发出封锁霍尔木兹海峡的威胁。本篇报告主要梳 理霍尔木兹海峡的贸易重要性以及封锁威胁的"前车之鉴"。 ❖ 一、霍尔木兹海峡的能源贸易战略地位 从产地来看，流经霍尔木兹海峡的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. airstrikes on Iran have led to a significant increase in international oil prices, raising concerns about the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transport route [1][2]. Oil Price Movement - On June 22, the price of NY crude oil futures rose above $78 per barrel, marking an increase of over 6% compared to the closing price on June 20, before retreating to around $75 [1]. - Brent crude oil futures surpassed $80 per barrel, reaching a high of $81.4, with a gain of 5.7%, before dropping below $79 [1]. Strait of Hormuz Concerns - The Strait of Hormuz is vital for oil transport, with approximately 20 million barrels of oil passing through daily in 2024, accounting for about 20% of global daily oil consumption [1]. - The Iranian parliament has reportedly reached a consensus on the potential closure of the Strait, with the final decision pending from the Supreme National Security Council of Iran [1]. Impact on Iranian Oil Exports - If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, Iran would be unable to export its crude oil, which currently stands at an average production of 3.3 million barrels per day and an export volume of 1.84 million barrels per day as of May [2]. Price Projections - Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Rapidan Energy Group suggest that if the Strait remains closed for an extended period, international oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel [2]. Shipping and Military Risks - Although the Strait has not been officially closed, shipping times and costs are expected to rise, prompting close monitoring of Iran's responses [2]. - The U.S. has amassed significant military forces in the Gulf region, and any Iranian actions regarding the Strait could provoke a substantial military response [2].

据媒体报道，在美国空袭伊朗后， 两艘载油量可达约200万桶的超级油轮在霍尔木兹海峡前 紧急掉头 。 自6月13日以色列突然袭击伊朗以来，波斯湾船只的电子设备和信号越来越多地受到干扰。不 过，上述两艘超级油轮的抵达，以及随后的掉头，具有正常油轮航行活动的特征，并未受到电 子信号干扰的影响。 多艘油轮选择在霍尔木兹海峡前折返表明，在美国袭击伊朗后，全球航运业对于这一水道可能 受到的影响保持高度警惕。鉴于紧张局势加剧，如果船舶预计抵达装货港后需要等待，它们可 能更愿意停泊在霍尔木兹海峡外等待。 在美国袭击伊朗之前，伊以冲突升级已经导致船只开始避开霍尔木兹海峡。全球最大船东组织 波罗的海国际航运公会（BIMCO）上周就表示，伊以大规模冲突令整个航运行业感到不安， 目前已经有不少船只选择避开霍尔木兹海峡，通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只数量正在下降。 眼下，油轮船东和贸易商正密切关注中东局势升级对霍尔木兹海峡通行量的进一步影响。 周日早些时候，希腊航运部在一份发给船东的通告中表示，计划穿越波斯湾这一狭窄海域的船 舶应 "重新评估霍尔木兹海峡的航行"，直至局势恢复正常。如果船舶决定通过霍尔木兹海 峡，船东应采取最高级别的安全措施， ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities mark a significant turning point in the Middle East, potentially leading to a broader conflict and a restructuring of regional order [1][12]. Group 1: U.S. Actions and Motivations - President Trump announced the completion of airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites, aiming to eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities [2][12]. - The U.S. military action is seen as a response to Iran's unwillingness to compromise in negotiations and is influenced by domestic political needs to divert attention from internal issues [2][3]. - Experts suggest that the U.S. is leveraging the situation to support Israel while simultaneously attempting to weaken Iran [3][12]. Group 2: Iranian Response and Regional Implications - Iran has indicated a potential increase in retaliatory actions against Israel, while its response to U.S. targets remains uncertain [4][6]. - The conflict has escalated, with Iran launching missile attacks on Israeli targets, prompting Israel to conduct airstrikes on Iranian military sites [6][7]. - The situation has raised concerns about a cycle of retaliation that could spiral into a larger conflict, with the UN warning of a "bottomless pit" of reprisals [6][7]. Group 3: International Reactions - Various international actors, including Russia and the EU, have condemned the U.S. actions, calling for diplomatic solutions to the crisis [7][8]. - The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has reported no increase in radiation levels following the attacks, emphasizing the need for diplomatic engagement [8]. Group 4: Economic and Energy Concerns - The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran is viewed as a last resort that could trigger a global energy crisis, affecting oil supply and prices significantly [13][14]. - The ongoing conflict and military actions are likely to disrupt energy markets, with implications for global economic stability [14].

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【导读】伊朗最高领袖顾问：浓缩铀材料仍在，"游戏并未结束" 持续关注海外最新消息！ 伊朗最高领袖顾问：浓缩铀材料仍在 "游戏并未结束" 新华社消息，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊的政治顾问阿里·沙姆哈尼6月22日在社交媒体发文表 示，尽管美国空袭伊朗核设施，伊朗的浓缩铀材料还在，"游戏并未结束"。 沙姆哈尼在社交媒体上写道："即便核设施被摧毁，游戏也未结束，浓缩材料、本土知识和政 治意志继续存在。" 伊朗议会赞成关闭霍尔木兹海峡 据央视新闻消息，记者当地时间6月22日获悉，伊朗议会国家安全委员会委员库萨里表示，伊 朗议会已得出结论，认为应关闭霍尔木兹海峡，但最终决定权在伊朗最高国家安全委员会手 中。 沙姆哈尼表示，伊朗有合法的自卫权，现在掌握政治和军事行动的主动权，将"明智"行事 并"避免盲目打击"，"惊奇会继续！" 美国总统特朗普当地时间21日晚宣布，美军"成功打击"伊朗福尔道、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕三处 核设施。美国防部长赫格塞思22日说，以"午夜之锤"为代号的空袭行动"基本摧毁"伊朗核项 目。 据塔斯尼姆通讯社等伊朗媒体20日报道，沙姆哈尼在以色列6月13日对伊朗的袭击中受重 伤，目前伤情趋于稳定。 伊朗德黑兰等地防空 ...

劳埃德：我们仍在霍尔木兹海峡航行，但局势可能在很短的时间内发生变化。 ...

据央视新闻，当地时间22日获悉，伊朗议会国家安全委员会委员库萨里表示，伊朗议会已得出结 论，认为应关闭霍尔木兹海峡，但最终决定权在伊朗最高国家安全委员会手中。 霍尔木兹海峡位于阿曼和伊朗之间，连接了东部的阿曼湾和西部的波斯湾，是海湾地区石油输往世界 各地的唯一海上通道，全球约三分之一的海运原油贸易都要途经霍尔木兹海峡。 ...

据央视新闻， 当地时间22日获悉， 伊朗议会国家安全委员会委员库萨里表示，伊朗议会已得出 结论，认为应关闭霍尔木兹海峡，但最终决定权在伊朗最高国家安全委员会手中。 霍尔木兹海峡位于阿曼和伊朗之间，连接了东部的阿曼湾和西部的波斯湾，是海湾地区石油输 往世界各地的唯一海上通道，全球约三分之一的海运原油贸易都要途经霍尔木兹海峡。 ...