Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term forecast for the MA2509 contract is to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2460 yuan/ton [3] - This week, the inventory of methanol enterprises has rapidly accumulated, and the port inventory has shown narrow - range fluctuations. The domestic methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate has declined, and the operating rate is expected to continue to drop [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2414 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 36 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton [3] - The main contract's open interest is 706,992 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 29,169 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 77,527 lots [3] - The number of warehouse receipts is 7,885, with no week - on - week change [3] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2450 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2005 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [3] - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 445 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 36 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton [3] - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 283 US dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 345 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 US dollars/ton [3] - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 259 euros/ton, with no week - on - week change; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 62 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 US dollars/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.5 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week increase of 0.08 US dollars [3] Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 50.95 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.35 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 16.42 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.03 tons [3] - The import profit of methanol is 12.74 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 55 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 129.23 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 50.46 tons [3] - The inventory of inland enterprises is 352,300 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10,700 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 91.31%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.66% [3] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 48.95%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.44%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 9.16%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5% [3] - The operating rate of acetic acid is 95.35%, with a week - on - week increase of 7.02%; the operating rate of MTBE is 64.4%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.69% [3] - The operating rate of olefins is 87.41%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.81%; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 968 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 28 yuan/ton [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 29.21%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.14%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 24.98%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.06% [3] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 17.35%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.27%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.36%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.28% [3] Industry News - As of July 2, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 35.23 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.07 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.14%; the pending orders of sample enterprises are 24.13 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.05 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.23% [3] - As of July 2, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 67.37 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.32 tons. East China has accumulated inventory, with an increase of 1.35 tons; South China has reduced inventory, with a decrease of 1.03 tons [3] - As of July 3, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants is 85.25%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.09% [3]

CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-02甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：港口月内空单回补，短期太仓现货或相对坚挺，然边库跟涨乏力，且随着部分内地货量持续流入港口套利， 或对港口市场存一定冲击，随着逼仓结束，港口高位回落概率大。内地方面，业者心态分歧严重，传统下游高温淡季以 及内地甲醇开工仍然高位，部分业者心态稍显谨慎。但同时当前产区工厂库存偏低，以及七月份甲醇装置检修集中，供 应端或将缩量，以及经过近期的回调之后当前价位下后期下跌空间有限，部分贸易商仍有一定的持货意愿不排除做多可 能，对内地价格有托底作用，预计本周内地价格震荡调整。需持续关注下周美国与伊朗会谈情况及外盘装置变化等 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 甲醇周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0018016 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021541 日期：2025年06月29日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint ➢ 风险点：宏观事件冲击，国际能源价格大幅波动； Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 综述：逐步转入震荡格局 01 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 综述 ➢ 国内现货：本期港口甲醇市场现货价格上涨为主，其中江苏价格波动区间在2610-2820元/吨，广东价格波动在2440-2650元/吨。沿海甲醇市场主 要交易逻辑仍在于宏观面对市场情绪的影响，在国际形势的波动下，本周港口甲醇市场宽幅震荡。基本面来看，港口主流甲醇市场近期可流通量偏低 位，货权较为集中，近月基差坚挺运行为主，其他区域市场在下游高价采买情绪较弱的压制下跟涨相对有限。本期内地甲醇市场延续涨势，主产区鄂 尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1990-2033元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间在2265-2 ...

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2025 年 6 月 25 日 甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：期货盘面震荡，最终报收 2391（-23/-0.95%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 2055 元/吨，北线报价 1960 元/吨。关中地区 报价 2200 元/吨，榆林地区报价 2040 元/吨，山西地区报价 2130 元/吨，河南地区报价 2200 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2240 元/吨，鲁北报价 2270 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2200 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 2260 元/吨，云贵报价 2300 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 2640 元/吨，宁波报价 2630 元/吨，广州报价 2440 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 截至 2025 年 6 月 25 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 67.05 万吨，较上一期数据增加 8.41 万吨。其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 5.90 万吨；华南地区累库，增加 2.51 万吨。 【逻辑分析】 供应端，当前西北煤炭主产地煤矿开工率回落，但需求偏弱，原料煤价格震荡，西 北主流甲醇企业竞拍价格坚挺，煤制甲醇利润在 700 元/吨附 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that methanol will experience a short - term correction. The international methanol device's operating rate has declined, with all Iranian devices halted due to conflicts, significantly tightening supply. However, the domestic coal price continues to fall, coal - to - methanol profits have reached a historical high, and domestic supply remains ample. Although the tight supply situation in the inland has eased to some extent, downstream demand has increased, and the bulk market is oscillating strongly. But with the easing of the Middle East situation, the upward impetus from geopolitical conflicts has temporarily ended [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The futures market saw a sharp decline, closing at 2379 (-133/-5.29%). - In the spot market, prices vary by region. For example, in production areas, Inner Mongolia's southern line is priced at 2055 yuan/ton, and the northern line at 1980 yuan/ton; in consumption areas, the Lunan region is priced at 2330 yuan/ton; at ports, the Taicang market is priced at 2620 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information This week, the international methanol production was 803,933 tons, a decrease of 230,000 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 55.11%, a significant drop of 15.80% from last week. Iranian devices have all stopped, while those in North and South America are operating stably, with some production lines shut down due to seasonal gas restrictions. The operating load in Southeast Asia and surrounding areas is low, and an African device has temporarily stopped due to natural gas supply issues [4]. Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: The coal - mining start - up rate in the main coal - producing areas in the northwest has declined, but demand is weak, and raw coal prices are oscillating. The auction prices of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest are firm, and the profit from coal - to - methanol is around 700 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol start - up rate remains stable at a high level, and domestic supply is continuously abundant [5]. - **Import Side**: The operating rate of international methanol devices has declined, the US dollar price has continued to rise, and the import parity has widened. Non - Iranian operations are stable, the European and American markets have declined slightly, the price difference between China and Europe has shrunk rapidly, and the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. As of June, 520,000 tons have been loaded in Iran, Iranian tenders have been suspended, US dollar transactions have weakened, and the expected import volume in July is 1.25 million tons. Hoarders are reluctant to sell, and liquidity is concentrated [5]. - **Demand Side**: Traditional downstream industries have entered the off - season, and their start - up rates have declined. The start - up rate of MTO devices has increased. Multiple MTO devices, such as the 690,000 - ton/year Xingxing MTO device, are operating, but some are operating at less - than - full capacity [5]. - **Inventory**: Import arrivals have decreased, and inventory is starting to be reduced, with a firm basis; inland enterprise inventories have begun to rise. With an increase in arrivals, port inventory will start to accumulate [5]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Do not chase high prices [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8]. - **Options**: Sell call options [8].

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2025 年 6 月 23 日 甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：期货盘面冲高回落，最终报收 2504（-34/-1.34%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 2055 元/吨，北线报价 2020 元/吨。关中地区 报价 2200 元/吨，榆林地区报价 2055 元/吨，山西地区报价 2190 元/吨，河南地区报价 2260 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2330 元/吨，鲁北报价 2300 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2200 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 2280 元/吨，云贵报价 2300 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 2720 元/吨，宁波报价 2740 元/吨，广州报价 2580 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 本周期国际甲醇产量为 803933 吨，较上周减少 23 万吨，装置产能利用率为 55.11%， 较上周大幅下降 15.80%。伊朗装置已全部停车；南北美洲均开工稳定为主，个别产线因 季节性限气停车；东南亚及周边开工负荷不高；非洲某装置因天然气供应而临时停车。 【逻辑分析】 供应端，当前西北煤炭主产地煤矿开工率回落，但需求偏弱，原料煤价格震 ...

CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-20甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：港口方面，上周华东、华南港口甲醇价格维持坚挺但涨幅有限，受船龄限制政策持续影响，港口市场尚存 支撑，同时中美贸易谈判进展及全球贸易预期改善，叠加地缘政治因素推高油价，共同推动期现货价格上行，且基差较 上周走强，不过价格上涨后，现货商谈趋于谨慎。内地方面，周初西北CTO工厂甲醇外采，以及当前甲醇价格已处于底 部空间部分投机需求增加，产区主要工厂竞拍溢价成交，上游工厂去库存节奏加快。另外港口走强也在一定程度上提振 业者心态，贸易商谨慎做空，场内低价货源难寻，销区下游接货也适度走高。但同时因传统下游需求多步入高温淡 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-17甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：港口方面，上周华东、华南港口甲醇价格维持坚挺但涨幅有限，受船龄限制政策持续影响，港口市场尚存 支撑，同时中美贸易谈判进展及全球贸易预期改善，叠加地缘政治因素推高油价，共同推动期现货价格上行，且基差较 上周走强，不过价格上涨后，现货商谈趋于谨慎。内地方面，周初西北CTO工厂甲醇外采，以及当前甲醇价格已处于底 部空间部分投机需求增加，产区主要工厂竞拍溢价成交，上游工厂去库存节奏加快。另外港口走强也在一定程度上提振 业者心态，贸易商谨慎做空，场内低价货源难寻，销区下游接货也适度走高。但同时因传统下游需求多步入高温淡 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 甲醇周报 （6.9 大越期货投资咨询部 -6.13 金泽彬 ） 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周评论 2 基本面数据 3 检修状况 4 观点与策略 甲醇周评：短期国内甲醇市场或以区间震荡为主。港口市场方面，持续累库，不过港口船龄限制政策实 施，后续局部进口到货或不及预期，叠加宏观面及原油表现偏强，短期港口期现货尚存一定支撑，然港口价 格上涨后，现货商谈气氛平平，预计短期港口市场维持震荡行情概率大，需关注后续进口船货到港情况。内 地市场方面，近期产区工厂出货量较大，上游企业库存可控，同时底部区间下部分贸易商持货意愿增强，对 行情有一定利好推动。但内地煤制企业利润可观，开工仍处高位，叠加下游处于传统淡季，供需基本面缺乏 明显利好驱动下，部分业者心态谨慎。多空交织预计下周内地甲醇 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.06.13」 甲醇市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周国内甲醇市场走势有所差异，港口甲醇市场现货价格继续偏强，其中江苏价格波 动区间在2300-2420元/吨，广东价格波动在2280-2320元/吨。内地甲醇市场小幅推涨，主产区 鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1883-1897元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间在2150-2160元/吨。 受宏观情绪影响，盘面及港口价格上调。 行情展望：近期国内甲醇恢复涉及产能产出量多于检修、减产涉及产能产出量，整体产量小幅增 加。西北产区运力不足，企业发货节奏放缓，本周国内甲醇企业库存继续增加。进口外轮卸货顺 利，本周甲醇港口库存如期累库，江苏沿江主流区域社会库区提货略有减量，外轮供应补充下库 存积累；华南地区主流库区提货量略有缩减，进口及内贸船只均有补充，集中到货下库存呈现累 库。需求方面，烯烃行业装置运行稳定，本周国内甲 ...