盈利预测与投资建议 根据25 年一季报，对25-26 年下调收入，上调毛利率、费用率。我们预测公司2025-2027 年每股收益分 别为3.37、3.91、4.46 元（原预测25-26 年为4.20、4.92 元）。 结合可比公司，我们认为目前公司的合理估值水平为2025 年的17 倍市盈率，对应目标价为57.29 元，维 持买入评级。 风险提示：白酒消费不及预期、市场竞争加剧、食品安全事件风险。 核心观点 公司发布24 年年报、25 年一季报。24 年实现营业收入73.4 亿元，同比+8.5%；实现归母净利润25.9 亿 元，同比+13.5%。单四季度来看，公司实现营业收入18.3 亿元（-5.0%），实现归母净利润5.8 亿元 （-4.9%）。25Q1 实现营业收入20.5 亿元，同比-12.3%；实现归母净利润8.3 亿元，同比-9.5%。24 年度 公司拟派发现金红利每股1.5 元（含税），分红总额12 亿元，占归母净利润比例46.35%。以25/4/28 市 值测算，股息率为3.1%。 Q1 收入同比下滑，预计主要因春节提前、消费疲软、主动去库。分产品来看，2024 年中高档白酒收入 57.1 亿 ...

迎驾贡酒 603198.SH 公司研究 | 年报点评 Q1 增速短期承压，看好中长期健康成长 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据25年一季报，对25-26年下调收入，上调毛利率、费用率。我们预测公司2025- 2027 年每股收益分别为 3.37、3.91、4.46 元（原预测 25-26 年为 4.20、4.92 元）。 结合可比公司，我们认为目前公司的合理估值水平为 2025 年的 17 倍市盈率，对应 目标价为 57.29 元，维持买入评级。 | 业绩增速环比放缓，但仍显现强竞争力 | 2024-10-30 | | --- | --- | | 受益白酒消费价格带下移，业绩有望延续 | 2024-09-19 | | 高增：——迎驾贡酒中秋跟踪点评 | | | 中高档强势增长，结构升级盈利能力提升 | 2024-08-20 | 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 6,771 | 7,344 | 7,430 | 8,468 | 9,4 ...

拆解业绩构成可以发现，国窖1573等中高端产品仍是泸州老窖核心引擎，贡献营收275.85亿元，占总收入比重近九成。但单季度数据透露出增长压力—— 2024年第四季度营收为68.96亿元，同比增速较前三季度的10.76%明显回落。相关媒体报道显示，国窖1573在部分区域出现价格倒挂，终端成交价跌破800 元/瓶，与980元的出厂价形成倒挂，这可能对经销商信心造成冲击。 泸州老窖存货高企成为另一关注焦点。截至2024年末，泸州老窖库存商品价值达123亿元，周转天数超过1100天，远超五粮液、汾酒等同业水平。当前，泸 州老窖正在推进智能酿造技改项目，首期投资47.83亿元用于产能升级，未来可能会提升库存周转效率。 站在2025年新起点，泸州老窖既要应对白酒消费分级、库存消化的行业共性难题，也要处理自身价格体系维护与市场扩张的平衡。年报中披露的86.51%毛 利率和30.44%净资产收益率，仍彰显其高端酒企的盈利能力。随着技改项目落地和3年分红承诺的兑现，这家拥有700年酿酒历史的企业，正在品质根基与 股东回报之间寻找新的平衡点。 这份年报中最引人注目的还有分红方案。泸州老窖拟每10股派发45.92元现金红利，叠加中 ...

2025 年 4 月 30 日 公司研究 稳健增长，开局亮眼 ——古井贡酒（000596.SZ）2024 年年报与 2025 年一季报点评 要点 事件：古井贡酒发布 2024 年年报以及 2025 年一季报，公司 24 年实现总营收 235.78 亿元、同比增长 16.41%，实现归母净利润 55.17 亿元、同比增长 20.22%， 其中 24Q4 总营收 45.09 亿元、同比增长 4.85%，归母净利润 7.71 亿元、同比 基本持平。25Q1 总营收 91.46 亿元、同比增长 10.38%，归母净利润 23.30 亿 元、同比增长 12.78%。公司拟每 10 股派发现金红利 50 元（含税），24 年度 累计现金分红 31.72 亿元（含税）、对应分红率 57.49%。 年份原浆系列量价齐升，25 年春节开局亮眼。1）公司 24 年白酒业务营收 228.65 亿元、同比增长 16.43%，其中销量/均价同比+8.44%/+7.37%。分品牌看，24 年年份原浆/古井贡酒/黄鹤楼及其他系列营收为 180.86/22.41/25.38 亿元，同 比 增 长 17.31%/11.17%/15.08% ， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has shown a revenue growth of 8.5% for the full year 2024, with a net profit increase of 13.4%. However, the growth rates for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 were below market expectations due to significant declines in sales of lower-tier products [7] - The company’s high-end product line, particularly the "洞藏" series, continues to grow rapidly, while the mid-to-low-end products are showing signs of fatigue [7] - The company is actively managing its cash flow and inventory to ensure healthy channel profits and turnover [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 6,771 million, projected to be 7,344 million in 2024, and 7,378 million in 2025, with a growth rate of 22.99%, 8.46%, and 0.46% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 2,282 million, expected to rise to 2,589 million in 2024 and 2,617 million in 2025, reflecting growth rates of 33.85%, 13.45%, and 1.06% respectively [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 3.24 in 2024 and 3.27 in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 15.07 and 14.92 respectively [1] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities is expected to increase significantly from 1,907 million in 2024 to 3,926 million in 2025 [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has shown a revenue growth of 8.5% in 2024, with a total revenue of 73.4 billion RMB and a net profit of 25.9 billion RMB, reflecting a 13.4% increase [7] - The company is experiencing a slowdown in mid-to-low-end liquor sales, while the "Dingcang" series continues to show strong growth potential [7] - The report highlights a proactive approach to managing cash flow and inventory, ensuring healthy channel profits and turnover [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023A: 6,771 million RMB, 2024A: 7,344 million RMB, 2025E: 7,378 million RMB, 2026E: 7,862 million RMB, 2027E: 8,685 million RMB [1] - Net profit forecasts are: 2023A: 2,282 million RMB, 2024A: 2,589 million RMB, 2025E: 2,617 million RMB, 2026E: 2,842 million RMB, 2027E: 3,205 million RMB [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: 2023A: 2.85 RMB, 2024A: 3.24 RMB, 2025E: 3.27 RMB, 2026E: 3.55 RMB, 2027E: 4.01 RMB [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the years 2025-2027 are projected to be 14.9, 13.7, and 12.2 respectively [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company [1][11] Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in Q1 2025, with revenue at 1.58 billion yuan, down 25.1% year-on-year, and net profit at 350 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [4] - Despite short-term pressures, the company is expected to focus on its core products and improve in the long term, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 600 million, 680 million, and 760 million yuan respectively [8] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023A: 7,081 million yuan - 2024A: 5,357 million yuan (down 24.3% YoY) - 2025E: 5,802 million yuan (up 8.3% YoY) - 2026E: 6,428 million yuan (up 10.8% YoY) - 2027E: 7,090 million yuan (up 10.3% YoY) [7] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2023A: 1,771 million yuan - 2024A: 346 million yuan (down 80.5% YoY) - 2025E: 600 million yuan (up 73.6% YoY) - 2026E: 678 million yuan (up 13.0% YoY) - 2027E: 757 million yuan (up 11.6% YoY) [7] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: 74.5% in 2023A, expected to decline to 63.2% in 2025E - Net Margin: 25.0% in 2023A, expected to rise to 10.3% in 2025E [7][8] - **Valuation Ratios**: - P/E Ratio: 10.7 in 2023A, expected to rise to 31.6 in 2025E - P/B Ratio: 2.6 in 2023A, expected to remain around 2.6 in 2025E [7][8] Market and Operational Insights - The company’s high-end liquor revenue in Q1 2025 was 1.23 billion yuan, down 28% YoY, while low-end liquor revenue was 210 million yuan, down 13% YoY [8] - E-commerce channels showed growth, with revenue of 200 million yuan in Q1 2025, up 37% YoY [8] - The company’s total market capitalization is 19 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 333 million shares [8]