Group 1: Dollar Cycle and Economic Impact - The dollar cycle reflects the relative strength of the U.S. economy and global investor portfolio adjustments, with a strong U.S. economy leading to dollar appreciation and increased capital inflows[1] - In 2025, the dollar is expected to enter a short-term correction due to the negative impact of Trump 2.0 on the U.S. economy, which may undermine investor confidence in the dollar[1] - The dollar's share in the international monetary system may decline as global economic multipolarity increases and countries diversify their reserve assets[1] Group 2: Economic and Inflation Forecasts - U.S. GDP growth is projected at 2.9% in 2023, decreasing to 1.4% in 2025, while PCE inflation is expected to stabilize around 2.8%[2] - The Eurozone's GDP growth is forecasted to be 0.4% in 2023 and 0.8% in 2025, with CPI inflation expected to decrease from 5.5% in 2023 to 2.1% in 2025[2] - The U.S. federal funds target rate is anticipated to be 5.33% in 2023, dropping to 4.00% by 2025[2] Group 3: Dollar Index and Its Influences - The dollar index, which is a weighted average of the dollar against six major currencies, has seen significant fluctuations, with a long-term upward trend since 2008[3] - The euro/dollar exchange rate, which accounts for nearly 60% of the dollar index, has a decisive influence on its movements, with a correlation of 0.7 to 0.8 with U.S.-Eurozone interest rate differentials[3] - The dollar index is expected to decline to around 97 by the end of 2025 due to trade wars and narrowing economic growth differentials between the U.S. and Eurozone[3] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - Market risk preferences significantly affect capital flows, with a tendency for funds to return to dollar assets during risk-off periods, strengthening the dollar index[1] - The anticipated Trump 2.0 trade war may lead to a decrease in the allocation of dollar assets by international investors, exacerbating the dollar's depreciation[1] - The dollar's dominant position in international payments and reserves remains intact, despite fluctuations, with its share in global reserves projected to be 57.8% by 2024[1]

美国银行分析师最新指出， 美股正在发出可能出现新买入机会的信号。 该银行的分析师表示，他们认为标普500指数略显超买，近期将出现一次回调。但该银行指出，投资者 不应为潜在的抛售而担忧，而应逢低买入，并补充说他们相信市场整体仍处于上涨趋势。 在2018年，标普500指数从大选后的峰值下跌了约10%。而今年，该指数从大选后的高点下跌了更陡峭 的20%。 该银行表示："如果这种情况在2025年重演，那将意味着标普指数将在今年夏季达到6266点。正如牛顿 第三运动定律所暗示的，每个作用力都有一个相等且相反的反作用力。" 分析师表示："标普500指数并非反复无常，只是有点超买且对利率持谨慎态度。回调即将来临，逢低买 入！" 该银行估计，他们认为美股的最低支撑位约为5580点。这个价格意味着该基准指数将从当前水平下跌约 5%。 上行方面，分析师表示，他们预计该基准指数将上涨至6000点左右的历史新高附近，短期内甚至有可能 涨至6266点。 根据美国银行的分析，市场可能上涨有几个原因：首先，美股当前的走势似乎与2015-2018年的轨迹相 似。在那些紧随总统大选的年份里，美股在达到顶峰前上涨了约7%。 标普500指数最近在 ...

Core Insights - Palo Alto Networks Inc (NASDAQ:PANW) shares are down 6.2% to $182.52 following the fiscal third-quarter results, where profits exceeded estimates, revenue met expectations, but gross margin fell more than anticipated [1] - The company has forecasted a strong current quarter and raised its full-year guidance [1] Analyst Reactions - Four analysts have reduced their price targets, with Northland Capital lowering it to $177 from $210, while Wells Fargo increased its target to $235 from $225 and maintained an "overweight" rating [2] - The stock has experienced significant volatility, trading between a high of $208.39 on February 19 and a low of $144.15 on April 7, currently at its lowest level since late April [2] Market Activity - The stock's 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is at 70.9, indicating it is in "overbought" territory, suggesting a potential short-term drop [3] - There has been a notable increase in options trading, with 72,000 calls and 48,000 puts traded, which is ten times the typical volume, with the weekly 5/23 180-strike put being the most popular [3]

A downtrend has been apparent in AxoGen (AXGN) lately with too much selling pressure. The stock has declined 25% over the past four weeks. However, given the fact that it is now in oversold territory and Wall Street analysts are majorly in agreement about the company's ability to report better earnings than they predicted earlier, the stock could be due for a turnaround.Here is How to Spot Oversold StocksWe use Relative Strength Index (RSI), one of the most commonly used technical indicators, for spotting w ...

1. 情绪模型观点：市场情绪修复，模型观点短期偏多 根据《从结构化视角全新打造市场情绪择时模型》文中提到的构建思路，目前我们用于构建市场情绪结构指标所用到 的细分指标如下表。 在指标合成方法上，模型采用打分的方式，根据每个分项指标所提示的情绪方向和所处布林轨道位置计算各指标分 数，指标分数可分为（-1，0，1）三种情况，最终对各个指标分数等权求和。最终的情绪结构指标为求和后分数的20 日均线，如图1所示，指标整体围绕0轴在[-6,6]的范围内上下波动，近5年A股市场情绪波动较大，其中2023年大部分 时间指标都处于较低位置，直至2024年10月市场情绪得分突破2。 截至5月16日，市场情绪指标数值上升至2，模型继续提示市场情绪进一步修复。自4月18日的最低点以来，市场情绪 已经连续17个交易日修复向上，模型观点偏多。 1.1 从分项指标出发：未来情绪进一步修复需要量和投资主线的双重支撑 本周A股市场继续提示市场情绪修复，价量匹配度较上一周没有显著变化，沪深300RSI指标分数上升，市场资金情绪 尚可，但市场风险偏好进一步下降且行业涨跌趋势得分转负，未来市场情绪进一步上行需要来自成交量和投资主线的 双重支撑。在 ...

【要闻速递】 三菱日联分析师Derek Halpenny在一份报告中说，英镑对英国经济增长数据改善反应平淡，表明对这些 数据的解读较为谨慎。数据显示，继上一季度增长0.1%之后，英国第一季度经济增长0.7%，但这是由 企业投资的不稳定因素推动的。这可能意味着投资者对第一季度数据的过度解读仍将保持谨慎。鉴于美 国4月份宣布的关税措施，英国央行看到了经济增长放缓的风险，因此应该进一步逐步降息。 汇丰银行在一份报告中说，鉴于最近全球的不确定性，英国经济增长在第一季度增长0.7%超出预期之 后，可能只会走下坡路。在一次性投资的推动下，投资强劲有所帮助，但从可能的出口前期负荷来看， 第二季度贸易可能出现下滑。此外，水电费上涨以及工资税和最低工资上调导致的企业劳动力成本也将 受到冲击。不过，第一季度的经济增长仍然不错，特别是考虑到通胀下降和劳动力市场仍然有弹性。预 计经济增长0.6%的英国央行将把这解读为其"谨慎而渐进"的降息方式的有力支撑。 从技术面来看，只要黄金价格维持在21日移动均线(SMA)3,308美元下方，仍存在进一步下行风险。目 前，黄金正测试关键的50日SMA支撑位3,155美元。 14日相对强弱指数(R ...

智通财经APP获悉，到目前为止，每一轮比特币周期的尾声都会出现抛物线式上涨阶段。比特币的月线 图显示，这一抛物线上涨阶段或许已经开启。财经作者David Zanoni发文表示，比特币减半周期的天数 相对稳定，在前两轮周期中，比特币价格从触底到见顶，时间跨度均为1064天;而第一轮周期稍长，持 续了1148天。本轮周期要到2025年10月才会达到1064天，因此本轮上涨行情很可能还有进一步上升空 间。近期的价格走势也印证了这种可能性。 在这轮可能出现的强劲涨势中，通过投资iShares比特币信托ETF(IBIT.US)等ETF则可以轻松从比特币价 格上涨中获利。 比特币技术面分析 从比特币的周线图来看，4月和5月价格呈现出明显的上涨趋势。图中间的紫色相对强弱指标(RSI)线突 破50，表明新的上涨趋势已经确立。图下方的蓝色指数平滑异同移动平均线(MACD)线几乎即将上穿红 色信号线，进一步佐证了这一趋势。MACD柱状图已从红色转为粉色，且可能很快变为绿色。一旦蓝色 MACD线成功上穿红色信号线，同时柱状图变为绿色，将构成周线图上新上涨趋势已形成的有力确认。 抛物线上涨阶段会发生什么? 在比特币减半周期的抛物线上 ...

1. 情绪模型观点：市场情绪修复，模型观点偏多 根据《从结构化视角全新打造市场情绪择时模型》文中提到的构建思路，目前我们用于构建市场情绪结构指标所用到 的细分指标如下表。 在指标合成方法上，模型采用打分的方式，根据每个分项指标所提示的情绪方向和所处布林轨道位置计算各指标分 数，指标分数可分为（-1，0，1）三种情况，最终对各个指标分数等权求和。最终的情绪结构指标为求和后分数的20 日均线，如图1所示，指标整体围绕0轴在[-6,6]的范围内上下波动，近5年A股市场情绪波动较大，其中2023年大部分 时间指标都处于较低位置，直至2024年10月市场情绪得分突破2。 截至5月9日，市场情绪指标数值上升至1.5，模型继续提示市场情绪缓和修复。自4月18日的最低点以来，市场情绪已 经连续12个交易日修复向上，模型观点偏多。 1.1 从分项指标出发：量价一致性上升 本周A股市场继续提示市场情绪修复，主力资金情绪尚可，价量一致性得分较上周进一步上升，是市场情绪修复的主 要原因。 | | 行业间交易 | 行业交易拥 | 价量一致性 | 科创 50 成 | 行业涨跌趋 | 300RSI | 主力买入力 | PCR 结合 | 融 ...

Fitness stock Peloton Interactive Inc (NASDAQ:PTON) is down 13.8% at $6.02, after the company's mixed fiscal third-quarter earnings results. Peloton posted losses of 12 cents per share, wider than the expected losses of 7 cents per share but still up 73% since the same quarter last year. The firm also lifted its 2025 outlook, while revenue of $624 million beat expectations but fell year-over-year. Though today's move might look dramatic, it's worth noting that PTON has averaged a 19% post-earnings swing -- ...

| SYMBOL + | COMPANY + | RSI = | PERF (WTD) = | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | NFLX | Netflix | 74.97 | 2,90 | | VRSN | VeriSign | 74.06 | 2.53 | | CAH | Cardinal Health | 74.01 | 5.79 | | PWR | Quanta Services | 72.83 | 12.04 | | MSFT | Microsoft | 72.78 | 8.56 | | PLTR | Palantir Technologies | 71.91 | 3.03 | | APH | Amphenol | 71.52 | 3.67 | | HWM | Howmet Aerospace | 71.43 | 9.04 | | TT | Trane Technologies | 70.96 | 12.83 | | IDXX | IDEXX Laboratories | 70.01 | 7.76 | 微软（MSFT）本周成为最被高估的股票之一，其RSI达到72.78。LSE ...