来自报告 来自报告《 美国"例外论"的终结——2025 年中期宏观经济展望 》 下半年，仍需防范美国经济超预期下行的风险——如果失业率升至4.4-4.6%区间，可能再次触 发"衰退交易"；美元汇率或将进一步贬值，人民币兑美元将随之升值，情形类似于2024年8-9 月。 关税2.0增加了下半年的商品贸易、工业生产和经济增长的不确定性。IMF 4月世界经济展望下修 2025年全球GDP增速预测至2.8%，较1月下降了0.5个百分点。其中，美国从2.7%下调到1.8%，降 幅0.9个百分点。 | 国家或地区 | 2024 | 2024年10月 | | 2025年1月 | | | 2025年4月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025F | 2026F | 2025F | 2026F | 2025F | 2026F | | 全球 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | | 发送经济体 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.5 | | 美国 | ...

Group 1: Core Aspects of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" is considered the most significant economic legislation during Trump's presidency, extending tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) that were set to expire in 2025 [2][4] - The act primarily continues existing tax policies rather than introducing new substantial tax cuts, preventing a significant increase in personal income tax rates post-2025 [2][4] - The Republican Party traditionally advocates for tax cuts to stimulate economic growth, create jobs, and increase national income, based on the belief that lower taxes enhance corporate profitability and investment [2][4] Group 2: Fiscal Deficit and Government Debt Implications - The act is projected to add $3 trillion to $4 trillion in additional fiscal deficits over the next decade, exacerbating the already high government debt, which is expected to reach nearly $36 trillion by 2024 [6][10] - The U.S. federal government's fiscal deficit is anticipated to reach 6.6% of GDP in 2024, marking a historical high, with debt interest payments surpassing defense spending [6][9] - Economic studies suggest that the growth effects from tax cuts may not sufficiently offset the revenue losses, with estimates indicating that only about one-third of the revenue loss from tax cuts can be compensated through economic growth [5][6] Group 3: Income and Wealth Distribution Effects - The act is expected to provide $1 trillion in tax benefits to the wealthiest 1% of Americans over the next decade, while low-income individuals may suffer from reduced healthcare and government benefits [11][13] - This disparity in benefits is likely to exacerbate income and wealth inequality in the U.S., posing challenges to the political system [11][13] Group 4: Indirect Effects on China - In the short term, the act may benefit the Chinese economy by increasing U.S. demand for Chinese products as trade tensions ease, aiding China's transition from external to internal demand [14] - The act's cancellation of subsidies for renewable energy sectors may slow the development of the U.S. renewable energy industry, but its direct impact on China's electric vehicle sector is expected to be limited [14] Group 5: Broader Economic and Political Implications - The act introduces significant uncertainty regarding the sustainability of U.S. federal finances, with long-term economic growth effects remaining unclear [10][18] - The political dynamics surrounding the act's implementation and its impact on Trump's influence and authority are uncertain, as they will evolve with the economic and electoral landscape [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has initiated a nationwide special rectification action to address the illegal dumping and disposal of solid waste, aiming to effectively curb the frequent occurrences of such activities over the next three years [1] Group 1: Importance of the Special Rectification - Illegal dumping of solid waste not only pollutes the environment and damages ecosystems but also leads to more severe pollution issues, necessitating strict rectification measures [2] - The rectification aligns with the political requirements of implementing Xi Jinping's ecological civilization thought, emphasizing the urgency and importance of addressing solid waste disposal issues [2] - The initiative is a response to public concern regarding solid waste dumping, aiming to enhance the sense of security and well-being among the populace [3] Group 2: Objectives of the Rectification - The action aims to resolve prominent issues related to illegal solid waste dumping through comprehensive inspections and timely clean-up efforts [4] - It seeks to compel local authorities to fulfill their regulatory responsibilities, addressing the challenges of illegal dumping and the economic burdens associated with clean-up efforts [4] - The initiative intends to create a strong deterrent against illegal dumping by encouraging public participation and reporting of such activities [5] Group 3: Implementation Strategies - The rectification will focus on illegal dumping of hazardous waste, industrial solid waste, and construction and household garbage, particularly in sensitive ecological areas [6] - By the end of 2025, local authorities are expected to complete inspections and establish records of illegal dumping incidents, with a target of achieving a 90% completion rate for rectification by the end of 2026 [7] - Strict legal actions will be taken against entities involved in illegal dumping, with a focus on severing the "black" profit chains associated with such activities [8] Group 4: Enhancing Effectiveness - The initiative will employ innovative technologies such as satellite remote sensing and drones for efficient identification and inspection of illegal dumping [9] - Public channels for reporting illegal dumping will be established to encourage community involvement in identifying and addressing waste disposal issues [9] - Regional cooperation will be strengthened to enhance the effectiveness of inspections and enforcement against cross-border illegal waste disposal activities [9] Group 5: Long-term Mechanisms - The initiative will analyze the root causes of illegal dumping and promote a scientific management approach to solid waste, encouraging waste producers to invest in waste reduction [10] - Efforts will be made to improve solid waste disposal infrastructure and regulatory frameworks to prevent illegal dumping practices [10]

当外界普遍对特朗普的执政风格持质疑态度，甚至将其视为"非传统"政治人物时，他在政治与经济领域已悄然实现多项战略目标。"让美国再次伟大"的口号 不再停留于宣传层面，其政策导向正切实推动美国朝着预设方向演进，尽管这一事实令不少观察者难以接受。 特朗普重掌白宫后，首先在关税领域展开强势布局。 对于日本、欧盟等谈判难度较大的经济体，美国采取了"持久战"策略，通过延长10%基础税率的适用期限来保持压力，而非在7月9日这个预设节点恢复高 额关税。 至于其他经济规模较小的国家，特朗普则展现出强硬姿态，计划直接发送税单确定税率，范围在10%至70%之间，这种差异化处理既体现了"美国优先"的实 用主义，也反映出其谈判策略的灵活性。 今年2月至3月间，美国以芬太尼问题为由，率先对中国、加拿大、墨西哥三大贸易伙伴启动20%的全面关税措施，这一举措被外界称为"芬太尼关税"。随后 在4月2日，美国进一步将关税政策升级为全球范围的"对等关税"行动，对主要经济体征收10%至49%不等的额外关税，标志着其贸易战略进入全面施压阶 段。 在此背景下，美国迅速展开多轮经贸谈判。截至目前，已有四个国家与美方达成协议：英国成为首个签署正式协议的国家， ...

7 月小盘狂欢：已在山腰，尚未到顶 ——主动量化周报 核心观点 大美丽法案提前落地短期利好权益资产，同时缓解美债超发的冲击。流动性溢出效应 持续，小盘交易热度有望在 7 月延续。 ❑ 7 月海外关键词有哪几个？ 美债超发压力缓和，经济韧性强、通胀预期上修。截至 7 月 2 日，目前美国 TGA 账户余额尚余 3722 亿美元，2020 年以来的中位数约为 6800 亿美元，所需回补的 数额较为有限，且若美债市场偏弱，美国财政部完全有空间延迟回补操作，美债 超发风险有望平稳落地。此外，6 月大超预期的非农暂时排除了美国经济衰退风 险后，未来一段时间，可能的潜在风险主要集中在：（1）7 月 9 日关税谈判截止日 附近，特朗普政府可能展示强硬以逼迫其他国家尽快达成协议，不过即便强硬程 度超预期，初期市场可能仍会以 TACO 逻辑进行交易，除非较长时间持续维持强 硬才会对市场预期形成负向冲击，短期影响可能不大；（2）受油价上涨、美元贬 值带来输入性通胀、关税通胀传导等因素影响，6 月美国通胀数据可能超出市场 当前偏温和的预期，这可能对市场情绪造成一定扰动。整体来说，海外短期偏乐 观，大美丽法案的出台有望强化美股短期上 ...

央视网消息：进入盛夏，祖国各地景色壮美如画。在新疆巴州和静县境内的巴音布鲁克草原，开都河蜿蜒流淌，静谧的水面清晰倒映着湛 蓝的天空与流动的云影。远远望去，一望无垠的草原延伸至天际，几只大天鹅在绿草如茵的草场上漫步，有的还在小水泊里凫水；草场上山岭 起伏，牧羊人骑马赶着羊群悠然穿行，羊儿们时而低头觅食，时而欢快奔跑，为这片绿色绒毯点缀了别样生机。 巴音布鲁克草原位于天山中部南麓腹地，平均海拔2500米，是我国最大的亚高山草甸草原，也是新疆最重要的畜牧业基地之一。 吉林：走进吉林龙湾群国家森林公园探秘自然之美 广东广州：盛夏莲花开 清韵幽幽来 这些天， 广东广州市莲花山的1200余种莲花也竞相绽放了。莲叶簇拥着盛开的莲花，宛如一个个绿裙仙子在舞动，为大自然增添了无限 生机。游客们漫步在栈道上欣赏各色花朵，清幽的香气也为园中的小景增添了夏日的韵味。景区还推出了实景演出，丰富游客的观赏体验。 江西泰和：夏日荷花次第开 满园飘香引客来 位于吉林通化的吉林龙湾群国家森林公园占地面积8102公顷，由"七湾、一瀑、两山"十大景区组成。一个个由火山喷发形成的高山湖泊， 似颗颗明珠散落在崇山峻岭中。 夏季，这里的平均气温只有22 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the transformation of rural areas in Xi'an into vibrant economic zones through the integration of agricultural resources, tourism, and local culture, leading to the emergence of a "beautiful economy" [1][7]. Group 1: Economic Transformation - Xi'an has revitalized rural resources, converting natural landscapes and agricultural culture into economic value, resulting in a booming "beautiful economy" [1]. - The "three land reform" initiative in Diaobei Village has allowed villagers to monetize idle land, with compensation set at 1,200 yuan per mu, leading to the development of mixed-use residential and commercial properties [2][5]. - In Shanjun Village, the "leave trees for viewing" model has attracted photography enthusiasts, significantly boosting local agricultural sales [4][5]. Group 2: Employment and Income Generation - The reforms in Diaobei and Shanjun villages have activated over 20 idle homesteads and transferred more than 1,700 mu of land, creating employment for over 400 individuals [5]. - The establishment of a modern agricultural base in Diaobei Village has diversified income sources for residents, including land transfer payments, wages, and business profits [6]. - The integration of local homestays into a cooperative alliance has increased annual income for participants, with one homestay surpassing 100,000 yuan in revenue [6]. Group 3: Tourism and Visitor Engagement - Xi'an has developed 23 charming leisure villages, attracting 27.57 million visitors annually, generating revenue of 2.11 billion yuan [7]. - The "High·Happiness Canteen" in Diaobei Village provides affordable meals while employing local women, enhancing community engagement and employment [8]. - The introduction of e-commerce initiatives in Diaobei Village aims to leverage the skills of younger residents to further stimulate local economic growth [9]. Group 4: Broader Implications for Rural Development - The article emphasizes that rural areas are evolving into sources of diverse value, shifting from merely selling products to offering experiences, which is crucial for sustainable rural development [10]. - Xi'an plans to establish 10 more "rural space stations" and launch 20 premium routes to facilitate smoother urban-rural integration and enhance rural vitality [10].

Group 1: Industry Trends - The popularity of sun-protective clothing reflects changing consumer preferences and the evolution of fashion trends, with over 70 billion garments produced annually in China, providing more than eight pieces per person globally [1] - The rise of outdoor activities has led to increased demand for specialized clothing such as cycling, hiking, and camping apparel, indicating a shift towards health and wellness in consumer choices [1] - The emergence of various fashion styles, such as "Korean style" and "dopamine dressing," showcases the dynamic nature of aesthetic preferences and the desire for self-expression through clothing [2] Group 2: Cultural Influence - The trend of "Guochao" (national tide) in fashion signifies the revival of traditional Chinese culture, with 54.4% of young respondents favoring national-style clothing as their daily wear [3] - The integration of traditional patterns and modern designs in clothing reflects a growing cultural confidence and appreciation for heritage [3] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The clothing industry is increasingly supported by technological innovations, including smart temperature control fabrics and lightweight materials, enhancing performance in extreme conditions [3] - The shift towards intelligent production lines and AI-driven design processes illustrates the transformation of traditional manufacturing into a more efficient and innovative sector [4] - Continuous improvements in supply quality and consumer demand fulfillment are expected to drive the future growth of the clothing industry, contributing to a "beautiful economy" [4]

如何看待今年（2025 年）美国政策对工业品市场的影响？ 今年（2025 年）是美国主导的宏观大年，美国政策对工业品市场有显著影响。 今年上半年，美国主要采取包括关税和支出减免等收紧措施，下半年则更多关 注经济刺激等放松动作。随着对等关税截止时间临近，美国将重心转回国内处 理内政问题。在这种背景下，美国是否愿意增加军备开支存在很大不确定性。 上周原油价格回落，地缘冲突见顶，引发降息预期交易提前开始。此外，上周 二鲍威尔在国会听证会上承认考虑提前降息，并提到不排除大幅降息可能性， 这也推动了以海外资产为首的一波上涨。 黑色壹周谈 2015 VS 2025，反内卷真等于去产能？ 20250703 摘要 2025 年市场上涨受估值和增仓驱动，黑色系商品反弹，焦煤率先启动， 需关注焦煤基本面、长协定价及仓单情况，以及美国政策对工业品市场 的影响，上半年收紧，下半年放松，对等关税截止时间临近，美国重心 转回国内。 国内反内卷政策通过行政化减产稳价，应对外需下行压力，在现货深水、 库存低位背景下，进一步做空盈亏比不佳，供给侧问题突出，行政化减 产成必要手段，引发空头减仓启动上涨。 铁矿石市场表现中性，缺乏明显上涨驱动和空 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Beautiful Rivers and Lakes Protection and Construction Action Plan (2025-2027)" aims to enhance the ecological environment of rivers and lakes in China, targeting a construction completion rate of approximately 40% by 2027 and significant results by 2030, with a basic completion by 2035 [1][2]. Group 1: Action Plan Objectives - The action plan emphasizes improving water ecological environment quality through precise, scientific, and legal pollution control, while promoting a comprehensive governance system for water resources, environment, and ecology [1][2]. - A total of 2,573 river and lake water bodies have been identified for protection, focusing on those with significant ecological functions and high social concern [1]. Group 2: Funding and Investment - The plan encourages central financial support and aims to attract local government and social capital investments, promoting various models such as government service purchases and third-party pollution management [1][3]. - It highlights the need for strengthened funding guarantees to support the protection and construction of beautiful rivers and lakes [2][3]. Group 3: Specific Measures - The action plan outlines 19 specific measures, including enhancing the effectiveness of pollution discharge outlet management, strengthening industrial park pollution prevention, and promoting agricultural non-point source pollution control [1][2]. - It also includes measures for ecological flow protection, water ecological restoration, and comprehensive support for protection and construction efforts [1].