中金公司 景气跃迁：量化视角下的盈利预测与"预期差" 挖掘 20250710 摘要 量化景气投资侧重广度，通过预测股票利润增长排名而非具体数值，以 实现投资收益。理想化测试表明，准确预测 ROE 变化并持仓排名靠前的 股票能带来超额收益，验证了该方法的可行性。 基于财务信息，当期业绩高增长的股票有较高概率延续高增长，但存在 业绩变脸风险。通过引入加速度概念，即增速的变化，可以优化模型， 提高预测准确性并降低风险。 二次趋势外推模型通过考虑利润增速和加速度，在预测胜率（72%）和 假阳性率（13%）方面均优于线性外推和分析师一致预期，显著改善了 盈利预测效果。 "成长趋势共振选股策略"结合优化后的盈利预测模型、分析师预期、估 值和现金流等因子，选取约 30 支股票，自 2009 年回测以来表现优异， 并在样本外跟踪中持续实现超额收益。 引入机器学习方法，特别是 XGBoost 和 LightGBM 等树模型，能处理 更多维度数据并捕捉非线性关系，显著提升盈利预测的准确性，胜率可 达 85%，假阳性率降至 4.7%。 Q&A 景气型投资的传统思路是什么？ 景气型投资是一种主流的机构化投资思路，传统上更多依赖于基本 ...

Ventyx Biosciences, Inc. (VTYX) could be a solid choice for investors given its recent upgrade to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). This upgrade primarily reflects an upward trend in earnings estimates, which is one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices.The sole determinant of the Zacks rating is a company's changing earnings picture. The Zacks Consensus Estimate -- the consensus of EPS estimates from the sell-side analysts covering the stock -- for the current and following years is tracked by the ...

Watts Water (WTS) could be a solid addition to your portfolio given its recent upgrade to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). This rating change essentially reflects an upward trend in earnings estimates -- one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices.The sole determinant of the Zacks rating is a company's changing earnings picture. The Zacks Consensus Estimate -- the consensus of EPS estimates from the sell-side analysts covering the stock -- for the current and following years is tracked by the system ...

Investors might want to bet on Adial Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ADIL) , as it has been recently upgraded to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). This rating change essentially reflects an upward trend in earnings estimates -- one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices.A company's changing earnings picture is at the core of the Zacks rating. The system tracks the Zacks Consensus Estimate -- the consensus measure of EPS estimates from the sell-side analysts covering the stock -- for the current and following ...

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for GameStop (GME) . Shares have lost about 18.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is GameStop due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?It turns out, est ...

Group 1 - Metsera Inc. (MTSR) shares have increased by 6.8% over the past four weeks, closing at $35.32, with a mean price target of $55 indicating a potential upside of 55.7% [1] - The mean estimate includes three short-term price targets with a standard deviation of $14.8, where the lowest estimate is $38.00 (7.6% increase) and the highest is $65.00 (84% increase) [2] - Analysts show strong agreement in revising earnings estimates higher, which correlates with potential stock price movements [11][12] Group 2 - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has risen by 1.9% over the last 30 days, with one estimate moving higher and no negative revisions [12] - MTSR holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimates [13] - While consensus price targets may not be reliable for predicting exact gains, they can indicate the direction of price movement [14]

Core Viewpoint - Geo Group (GEO) shares have shown a 0.8% increase over the past four weeks, closing at $26.33, with analysts suggesting a potential upside of 58.8% based on a mean price target of $41.8 [1] Price Targets and Analyst Consensus - The average price target for GEO is derived from five short-term estimates, ranging from a low of $35.00 to a high of $50.00, with a standard deviation of $6.42, indicating a potential increase of 32.9% to 89.9% from the current price [2] - A low standard deviation suggests a strong agreement among analysts regarding the price movement of GEO, which can serve as a starting point for further research [9] Earnings Estimates and Market Sentiment - Analysts have shown strong agreement in revising earnings per share (EPS) estimates higher for GEO, which correlates with potential stock price increases [11] - Over the past 30 days, one estimate has increased, leading to a 3.4% rise in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year [12] - GEO holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate factors, indicating strong potential for upside [13] Caution on Price Targets - While price targets are often sought after, they can mislead investors, as empirical research shows they rarely indicate actual stock price movements [7] - Analysts may set overly optimistic price targets due to business incentives, which can inflate expectations [8] - Investors should approach price targets with skepticism and not rely solely on them for investment decisions [10]

点击下方 卡片 ，关注" 具身智能 之心 "公众号 作者丨 Wenyao Zhang等 编辑丨具身智能之心 本文只做学术分享，如有侵权，联系删文 >> 点击进入→ 具身智能之心 技术交流群 更多干货，欢迎加入国内首个具身智能全栈学习社区 ： 具身智能之心知识星球 (戳我) ， 这里包含所有你想要 的。 研究背景与动机 近年来，视觉-语言-动作（VLA）模型在整合图像生成与动作预测以提升机器人操作的泛化性和推理能力 方面展现出潜力。但现有方法受限于基于图像的预测，存在信息冗余，且缺乏动态、空间和语义等关键世 界知识，难以形成闭环的感知-预测-动作循环。 动态区域预测 ：利用光流预测模型识别场景中动态区域（如运动物体、机器人末端执行器），让模型 专注于任务关键的运动区域，避免冗余帧重建。通过CoTracker提取动态区域，训练模型仅重建这些区 域，优化目标为最大化对数似然的证据下界，损失函数为： $${\mathcal{L}}_{d y n}={\frac{1}{|{\mathcal{D}}|}}\sum_{x_{i}\in{\mathcal{D}}}\mathbb{E}_{z\sim Q_{\phi}(z|x_ ...

这不仅是对美食的敬畏，更是对生活品质的坚持。而将这份"至味"从产地送到餐桌，考验的不仅是食材 本身的新鲜度，还有物流的速度与确定性。 在生鲜电商领域，包裹发出后的等待，是用户体验的关键考验期。 尤其是当顾客反复刷新物流详情页，却只看到包裹辗转于各个中转站，无法获知那个最关键的答 案："我的生鲜包裹，究竟何时能送达？" 一骑红尘妃子笑，无人知是荔枝来。 近期，《长安的荔枝》剧集热播，让人想起古人为了一颗荔枝千里奔波的艰辛。如今，想吃上一颗新鲜 荔枝已不再困难，尤其在岭南地区，今年荔枝大丰收，"妃子笑"价格亲民，网友们纷纷感叹实现了"荔 枝自由"。 然而，对于绝大多数消费者来说，品尝鲜果仍依赖生鲜快递。不同快递时效差异虽小，对荔枝口感的影 响却巨大——晚到十几个小时，美味可能从"贵妃待遇"跌至"平民水准"。 不仅是荔枝，其他生鲜同样讲究时效。爱吃虾的人知道，死虾与活虾、甚至死两小时和三小时的口感差 别都明显。食客蔡澜的离世让人一阵唏嘘，人们怀念他，不仅因为他的文字与见解，更因为他那句深入 人心的理念——"人间至味，从来都是对生命的热烈拥抱"。 另一方面，用户无法根据精准时间安排收货或行程，可能导致错过配送、商品滞 ...

美国银行预计，布伦特原油2025年下半年的均价料为每桶64美元。随着OPEC+增产和更多炼油产能投 产，美国银行预计石油产品裂解价差将在秋季趋缓。美国银行预计今年布伦特原油和WTI原油均价分别 为每桶67和64美元；预计2025年全球需求增长约每日90万桶，2026年为每日120万桶。 ...