更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha J P M O R G A N North America Economic Research 04 June 2025 US: ADP was another downbeat jobs signal The ADP employment report showed only a 37k increase in private sector payrolls in May, continuing a trend of softer numbers, with this report now showing gains of less than 100k in three of the last four months. In contrast, the BLS report did not show a similar slowdown through April, with its 3-month average (148k) actually stronger than the 12-month average (130k). In add ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential impact of the upcoming non-farm payroll (NFP) report on gold trading, especially in light of the disappointing ADP employment data [1] Group 1 - The ADP employment report showed unexpected weakness, raising concerns about the NFP report's performance [1] - Traders are advised to monitor key levels in gold trading as the market reacts to employment data [1]

摘要周五（6月6日）现货黄金维持日内涨势，目前金价位于3366.98美元/盎司，涨幅0.43%，今日开盘 报3353.24美元/盎司，最高上探3375.29美元/盎司，最低触及3351.49美元/盎司。 周五（6月6日）现货黄金维持日内涨势，目前金价位于3366.98美元/盎司，涨幅0.43%，今日开盘报 3353.24美元/盎司，最高上探3375.29美元/盎司，最低触及3351.49美元/盎司。 周五，美国劳工统计局将公布备受关注的5月非农就业数据，市场预期将新增13万个岗位，失业率维持 在4.2%不变。 周三，有"小非农"之称的ADP就业报告显示，美国民间增加的职位是两年来最少。该报告可能是负面非 农就业报告的前奏。 薪资处理公司ADP周三报告显示，5月私营部门就业人数仅增加3.7万，低于下修后的4月数据6万，也不 及道琼斯预期的11万。这是ADP统计自2023年3月以来最低的月度就业增量。 美国劳工部周四报告显示，随着就业市场担忧加剧，上周初请失业金人数意外上升。数据显示，在截至 5月31日的一周内，经季节调整后的初请失业金人数达24.7万，较前周增加8000人，高于道琼斯调查预 期的23.6万。 分 ...

Group 1 - The market has seen fluctuations in gold prices, with a recent peak at 3403 and a subsequent drop to 3340, aligning with expectations of a bullish trend followed by a pullback [2][4] - Silver prices have also surged, reaching a high of 36, with a critical resistance level identified at 36.5, suggesting a cautious approach to new positions [2][6] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is anticipated to significantly influence gold and silver market performance, with a focus on the potential for further price movements [5][6] Group 2 - Domestic gold prices have shown upward movement, with Shanghai gold reaching a high of 793 and a closing price of 786, indicating a similar trend of fluctuations [6] - The international silver market has demonstrated strong upward momentum, with current prices around 35.8, and a potential peak at 36.5, suggesting a cautious trading strategy [6][7] - Crude oil prices are expected to maintain a bullish outlook, with support at 60 and a target of 64, indicating potential for further upward movement if the resistance is broken [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury yields have stabilized after a significant decline due to weak economic data, with particular focus on upcoming non-farm payroll data [1] Group 1: Treasury Yields - The 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year US Treasury yields are currently at 3.879%, 4.367%, and 4.890% respectively [1] - The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields fell by 8 basis points and 9.5 basis points respectively, influenced by the disappointing ADP employment report [1] Group 2: Employment Data - The ADP employment report has led to increased scrutiny on the upcoming non-farm payroll data, which is expected to be more significant than usual [1] - Analysts from Metzler emphasize that more signs of weakness in the labor market are needed before the Federal Reserve considers interest rate cuts [1]

Core Insights - Gold prices are experiencing fluctuations and are on an upward trend, raising questions about when a breakthrough will occur [1] - The release of the ADP non-farm employment data has been completed, leading to speculation on its impact on market trends [1] Group 1 - Gold prices are currently in a state of volatility, indicating potential for future movement [1] - The market is closely monitoring the implications of the recently published ADP data on gold prices [1]

Core Insights - The ADP employment report for May indicates an increase of 37,000 jobs, which is significantly lower than the expected increase of 110,000 jobs and the previous month's increase of 62,000 jobs [1] Group 1 - The hiring pace in the U.S. reached its lowest level since March 2023 [1]

Core Insights - The ADP private employment report for May showed an increase of only 37,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 114,000 [1] - The April data was revised down by 20,000 to 60,000 jobs, indicating a downward trend in employment growth [1] - The 37,000 jobs added in May represent the lowest level since March 2023 [1] Market Reaction - Following the release of the ADP report, the dollar index (DXY) experienced a short-term decline, with a drop of 20 points [1] - The report's reliability as a predictor for the upcoming employment data on Friday is questioned, yet it still influenced market sentiment against the dollar [1]

Core Insights - The ADP employment number for May recorded an increase of 37,000, marking the smallest growth since March 2023, while the market expectation was for an increase of 110,000 [1] Employment Data - The employment increase of 37,000 in May is significantly lower than the market forecast of 110,000 [1] - This figure represents the lowest growth in employment since March 2023, indicating a potential slowdown in job creation [1]

Group 1 - The ADP employment figures were released, leading to a short-term decline in the US Dollar Index (DXY) by over 15 points, currently reported at 99.1 [1]