Another good top indicator is by CryptoQuant:Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle IndicatorThis momentum indicator tracks bull and bear cycles using the P&L Index.- Bitcoin is firmly in the Bull Zone (orange), confirming a strong uptrend.- Not yet in Overheated Bull Zone (red), which has historically marked cycle tops. ...

Core Viewpoint - Q-tech preannounced a significant net profit growth of 150-180% YoY for 1H25, with a mid-point of RMB305 million, surpassing Bloomberg consensus by 20% and tracking 54% of the FY25E net profit estimate [1][2]. Financial Performance - For 1H25, Q-tech's estimated revenue and net profit growth were 7% and 162% YoY, respectively, driven by a 2% YoY increase in CCM (with non-mobile CCM up 97%) and a 100% YoY increase in FPM (with ultrasonic FPM up 20x) [2]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) improved to 7.1% in 1H25, compared to 5.2% in 1H24 and 6.9% in 2H24, attributed to HCM spec upgrades and higher-margin non-mobile CCM and ultrasonic FPM shipments [2]. Outlook - The outlook for 2H25 is positive, with expectations of continued strong momentum driven by high-end smartphone camera upgrades (OIS/periscope), IoT/auto CCM growth, and GPM recovery [2]. - Revenue and net profit are estimated to grow by 25% and 162% YoY in 2H25E, respectively, supported by a 23% mix of high-end HCM in 2H and an 85% revenue increase in IoT/auto [2]. Earnings Estimates - The company raised FY25-27E EPS estimates by 21-30%, reflecting strong 1H25 performance and improved GPM outlook for FY26/27E, with EPS now 14-19% above consensus [1][3]. - The new target price (TP) is set at HK$13.21, based on a higher 19.5x FY25E P/E, aligning with the 10-year historical average forward P/E, following sector re-rating and a stronger outlook for FY26-27E [1][3]. Investment Thesis - Q-tech is positioned to capture high-end smartphone camera upgrade demand and momentum in IoT/auto CCM modules, leading to a reiteration of the BUY rating [3].

兴业证券指出，2023年总营业收入同比持平，过去五年整个半导体行业总体依然保持良好增速，预计 2025年总营业收入将达到9175亿元，同比增长9%，近五年总增长100%。从净利润来看，过去五年里， A股半导体上市公司既经历了2021年芯片缺货带来的净利润大幅增长，预计2025年净利润将达到513亿 元，同比增长9%，近五年总增长45%。2024年光刻先行，同时国产设备先进工艺突破与验证持续推 进；未来3年，"先进工艺扩产"将成为自主可控主线。此外，CoWoS及HBM卡位AI产业趋势，先进封装 重要性凸显。AI浪潮带动算力需求爆发，服务器、AI芯片、光芯片、存储、PCB板等环节价值量将大 幅提升。持续看好被动元件、数字SoC、射频、存储、封测、面板为代表的上游领域的复苏趋势。 芯片ETF跟踪的是中华半导体芯片（人民币）指数，该指数由中证指数有限公司编制，精选了在半导体 及芯片领域内具有代表性的A股上市公司作为成分股。指数覆盖了从芯片设计、晶圆制造到封装测试等 全产业链环节的优质企业，全面反映中国半导体芯片行业的整体表现，充分体现了该行业的技术创新能 力和成长潜力。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for HG Tech is "Buy" with an updated 12-month target price of Rmb56, revised from Rmb53, based on a 22x 2026E P/E [1][2][14]. Core Insights - HG Tech pre-announced its 2Q net profit range of Rmb480 million to Rmb540 million, with a mid-point of Rmb510 million, representing a 52% year-over-year increase and exceeding expectations [1]. - The strong profit performance is expected to alleviate investor concerns regarding the profitability of optical transceivers, with key catalysts anticipated in the second half of 2025, including progress in penetrating US markets and domestic demand outlook [1][14]. - The company is positioned for robust long-term growth driven by the AI infrastructure cycle, overseas expansion, and new market penetration [1]. Revenue and Profit Estimates - Revenue estimates for 2025-2026 have been revised upward by 3% to 4.6%, leading to a net profit estimate increase of 4% to 8% [2]. - New revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are Rmb15,815 million, Rmb19,233 million, and Rmb22,971 million respectively, reflecting a 4.6% increase for 2025 and 2026, and a 3.0% increase for 2027 compared to previous estimates [6]. - Net income estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are Rmb1,830 million, Rmb2,579 million, and Rmb3,130 million respectively, with increases of 8%, 6%, and 4% compared to prior estimates [6]. Business Segments and Growth Drivers - HG Tech's business segments include optical transceivers, sensors, telecom equipment, and laser tools, with a focus on high-end optical transceivers (800G and 400G modules) expected to drive margin improvement and net profit growth [14]. - The revenue mix for 2024 is projected to be 34% from laser tools, 3% from networking, and 63% from sensors, with shifts expected in 2025 and 2026 [13][11]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing attach ratio of optical transceivers, supporting better growth sustainability [1].

Industry Overview - The insurance industry has encountered significant challenges in recent years, resulting in a hardening of the capital cycle that may shift towards sustainable profitability in 2024 [1] Company Focus - Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (NYSE: AHL) has managed to navigate through these industry headwinds effectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gray Media Inc. (NYSE: GTN) is currently viewed as 'dead money' as investors await the next political cycle, with shares dropping to approximately $3 per share following disappointing Q3/24 earnings [1]. Company Summary - Gray Media Inc. experienced a significant decline in share price, reaching a low of around $3 per share after its Q3/24 earnings report was poorly received [1].

Monetary Policy - A slowdown in inflation strengthens the argument for Egypt to continue its monetary-easing cycle on Thursday [1]

RWA supercycle (real)Andy (@ayyyeandy):Tokenization mania incoming.Stablecoin supercycle is in progress.Powered by Circle, Tether, Ethereum, Aptos, zkSync, Ethena, Sky, Aave, Chainlink, Morpho, Frax, RedStone, Maple, Securitize, Paxos, Ondo, Plasma, and many more. https://t.co/zwbqenR2D5 ...

I'm going to say something which is really embarrassing here. I know nothing about menstrual cycles. At no point in my life did anybody teach me about menstrual cycles.The only insight I have in my life to what a menstrual cycle is is overhearing my sister when I was younger talking about it. Yeah. And when I say overhearing, I mean maybe a sentence and then maybe my girlfriend once in a while she'll say, "Oh, I'm coming into my cycle." Or whatever.She'll say, "I'm on my period." That's for most men. That's ...

Market Cycle Analysis - Bitcoin normally peaks in Q4 of the post-halving year, though each cycle could be different [1] - Cycles one and two could be combined into a single cycle [1][2] - The cycles have shown interesting similarities [2] Bitcoin Performance - Two cycles ago, Bitcoin was up about 100x (10,000%) [2] - Last cycle, Bitcoin went up about 20x (2,000%), approximately 1/5 of the previous cycle's increase [2] - So far this cycle, Bitcoin is up about 7x (700%) [2]