Geopolitical Risk - Russia indicates potential consensus on Ukraine security guarantees [1] - Russia reiterates its opposition to Ukraine joining NATO [1]

Geopolitical Event - French President Emmanuel Macron 将于周四主持乌克兰顶级盟友峰会 [1] - 峰会旨在跟进上个月关于安全保障的讨论，此时人们对迅速停火的希望正在减小 [1]

Geopolitical Analysis - The report suggests potential progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks is uncertain, especially with President Trump's deadline approaching [1] - The analysis indicates that President Putin may be manipulating President Trump in regards to the conflict [2][3] - The report highlights concerns that Trump's inconsistent threats undermine US credibility on the international stage, impacting not only Ukraine but also Taiwan and China [9] US Foreign Policy & Strategy - The report criticizes the lack of a clear US strategy and consequences if Russia doesn't comply with demands [4] - The report suggests that the US should impose new sanctions directly on Russian banks and the "shadow fleet" shipping Russian oil, and seize Russian central bank assets (5 to 10 billion USD) in the US [7] - The report advocates for a new military assistance package for Ukraine, criticizing the US for profiting from the war [7][8] Conflict & International Order - The report emphasizes that Putin's war against Ukraine has intensified since President Trump returned to the White House [12] - The report warns against allowing Russia to annex Ukrainian territory, as it threatens the international order established after World War II [16][17] - The report urges the US and Europe to provide Ukraine with the necessary military assets, including long-range fires, to stop Russian expansion [18]

Geopolitical Implications - Zelenskiy 将与欧洲领导人及 Trump 下周讨论乌克兰安全保障问题 [1]

Geopolitical Landscape - Security guarantees for Ukraine are a central point in discussions about ending the Russia-Ukraine war [1] Strategic Considerations - The report highlights options and challenges related to security guarantees for Ukraine [1]

Geopolitical Landscape - Security guarantees for a post-war Ukraine will be ready in the coming days, according to President Zelenskiy [1]

Geopolitical Strategy - Providing security guarantees to Ukraine is not charity, but a matter of US self-interest [1]

Efforts to establish security guarantees for Ukraine as part of a US-led push to end Russia’s war are running into difficulties almost immediately https://t.co/mbRlVaPDW9 ...

Security Guarantees for Ukraine - Russia seeks security guarantees for Ukraine that would grant Moscow veto power over any future defense efforts [1] - The concept of security guarantees for Ukraine is inherently against Russia, raising questions about the effectiveness of such guarantees if Russia has a say [2] - European nations are exploring a "NATO lite" assurance, which would provide Ukraine with military assistance and commitment in case of future attacks, but details remain vague [3] Russia's Position and Strategy - Russia is maintaining a firm stance, encouraged by perceived successes [4] - Russia views its "hardball" approach as effective in achieving its objectives [5] - Russia is lukewarm towards a potential meeting between Putin and Zelensky [5] Negotiation Dynamics - Russia has committed to increasing the level of officials participating in direct talks with Ukraine [6] - The Kremlin indicates that a Putin-Zelensky summit would only occur if there is an agreement ready for signing [6] - Both sides remain far from reaching an agreement, suggesting Russia's lack of enthusiasm for a bilateral summit [7]

Geopolitical Landscape - Negotiations regarding the Russia-Ukraine war are centered on security assurances for Ukraine [1] - Discussions involve territory Russia aims to control, including Ukrainian land not currently under Russian occupation [1]