Bloomberg Daybreak Europe is your essential morning viewing to stay ahead. Live from London, we set the agenda for your day, catching you up with overnight markets news from the US and Asia. And we'll tell you what matters for investors in Europe, giving you insight before trading begins. On today's show, the US and China have agreed to a preliminary plan to ease trade tensions, which now goes for approval to the nation's leaders. American negotiators say they expect issues concerning rare earths and magnet ...

We have reached a framework to implement the Geneva consensus and the call between the two presidents. In the past two days, China and the US teams had in-depth exchanges. Our communication is very professional, rational, in-depth and candid.Both sides have agreed in principle to a framework for implementing the phone call between the two leaders on June 5th and the consensus they reached in Geneva. The US and China saying they have arrived at a plan to make things work around the consensus reached last mon ...

You know what time it is? Money, power, politics. We are following major news tonight that the United States and China have agreed to a framework to deescalate trade tensions. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutna confirmed this news saying rare earth experts are quote a fundamental part of that framework. So let's discuss. I want to bring in my friend Bill Cohen, founding partner of Puck News and a former Wall Street banker and Justin Wolfers, a professor of economics and public policy at University of Michigan. ...

Key Takeaways China is reshaping its rare earth export controls. Among 17 rare earth elements (REEs), China has imposed export controls on seven heavier ones (Dy, Tb, Sm, Gd, Lu, Sc, Y) and their processed products, mostly magnets. REEs and magnets, dominated by China. According to WoodMac, Chinese companies control 65%/88% of global mined/refined mid to heavy rare earths supply and >90% of downstream NdFeB Permanent magnet supply in 2025. REEs and magnets exports now require three sets of approvals from th ...

May 18, 2025 06:00 AM GMT Sunday Start | What's Next in Global Macro M Global Idea The Détente – What It Does and Doesn't Mean Following Monday's announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs between the US and China, the response in risk markets has been resoundingly positive through the first four trading days. The S&P 500 is up 4.5% from last Friday's close, and year-to-date returns are back in the black after Liberation Day drove steep declines in April. Credit markets have also rallied notably, ...

Key Takeaways The Trade Desk has fallen 47.2% in six months, sharply underperforming peers and broader indices. Macroeconomic uncertainty, rising costs, and fierce competition are weighing on TTD's growth prospects. TTD's high valuation and weak international presence limit upside amid declining investor confidence.The Trade Desk (TTD) shares have plunged 47.2% in the past six months, raising tough questions about its near-term trajectory. Though volatility has affected broader indices in the past couple ...

4 June 2025 | 5:54PM EDT What's Top of Mind in Macro Research: Fiscal policy focus, ECB projections, US jobs report This week: Transcript Fiscal policy focus We continue to expect the budget reconciliation bill currently making its way through Congress will have only a modest impact on the US fiscal balance relative to current policy. Similarly, we think that the corporate provisions in the bill will have only modest direct impacts on S&P 500 earnings and cash flows. Specifically, we estimate that the provi ...

Summary of China Oil Data Digest - April 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry in China, summarizing supply, apparent demand, and trade data for April 2025. Key Points Apparent Demand and Supply - Chinese apparent oil demand decreased by 410 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) year-on-year (YoY) in April, primarily due to refinery maintenance impacting product supply and leading to a rapid build-up of crude stocks [2][5][11] - Apparent diesel demand fell by 110 kb/d month-on-month (MoM) and was down 9% YoY, aligning with weakening manufacturing PMIs [11][18] - Apparent gasoline demand dropped 13% YoY to 3.16 million barrels per day (mb/d), with a 150 kb/d decrease from March [21][27] - Jet fuel demand weakened sharply, falling by 145 kb/d MoM and 19% YoY, although total flight numbers increased slightly [30][36] Crude Imports and Exports - Chinese crude imports softened in April but still reached a seasonal record of 11.7 mb/d, with a 370 kb/d MoM decrease but an increase of 830 kb/d YoY [3][7][58] - Imports of Iranian oil fell by 530 kb/d MoM due to increased caution among refiners following US sanctions [3][60] - Strong imports from Russia and Brazil were noted, as Chinese refiners opted for cheaper grades amid high premiums for Middle Eastern crude [3][61] Refinery Operations - Refinery throughput dropped sharply by 740 kb/d MoM due to intensified seasonal maintenance, particularly at Sinopec [4][65] - Independent refiners increased utilization rates to a 14-week high of 47.5% to capitalize on stronger domestic margins [4][132] - Overall, refinery runs were down 180 kb/d YoY, marking the second consecutive month of decline [126][130] Product Exports and Imports - Refined product net exports weakened in April, driven by tighter supply and weak export margins, leading refiners to retain more supply domestically [5][73] - LPG imports increased by 140 kb/d MoM, reaching an all-time high for April, as buyers stocked up amid rising US-China trade tensions [40][78] - Naphtha imports are expected to strengthen in May and June due to increased attractiveness as a feedstock following high tariffs on LPG [49][50] Economic and Trade Context - The manufacturing PMI index fell to 49.0 in April, indicating contraction and reflecting the impact of US-China trade tensions [8][11] - The overall outlook for Chinese trade remains gloomy, with export growth expected to decelerate to 0% for 2025 [13][12] - The Chinese government released a second batch of clean product export quotas for 2025, totaling 12.8 million tons, slightly down from the previous year [98][101] Inventory Changes - China's crude stocks built rapidly, adding approximately 36 million barrels in April, while observable product inventories drew by 7.1 million barrels [158][165] - Diesel stocks drew by 4.0 million barrels, and gasoline stocks drew by 3.1 million barrels, driven by healthy demand for public holiday travel [159][163] Future Outlook - The YoY reduction in diesel demand is expected to widen further as the negative effects of tariffs on domestic manufacturing continue [16] - Despite a high level of refinery outages in April, which supported margins, a weakening outlook for demand is anticipated in the second half of 2025 [115][125] Additional Insights - The report highlights the significant impact of geopolitical factors, such as US sanctions and trade tensions, on China's oil demand and supply dynamics [12][60][136] - The shift in crude sourcing from Middle Eastern suppliers to Russian and Brazilian grades indicates a strategic response to pricing pressures and sanctions [61][64] This summary encapsulates the critical data and insights from the April 2025 oil data digest, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the Chinese oil industry.

Trade and Market Impact - Trade tensions are affecting market performance, with President Trump accusing China of violating tariff agreements and announcing a doubling of steel tariffs from 25% to 50% [1] - Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) has seen a significant increase of +24% in stock price due to these developments [2] - Major indexes such as the Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 are experiencing declines, with the S&P 500 down -20 points [2] Labor Market Insights - The upcoming Jobs Week includes key reports such as Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), ADP private-sector payrolls, Weekly Jobless Claims, and the U.S. Employment Report [3][4] - Expectations for job gains are set at +112K for ADP and +125K for BLS, with potential narratives of labor market loosening if these figures show weakness [4] - The U.S. labor force has been underestimated, with a current unemployment rate expected to remain low at 4.2% despite recent increases [6] Company Earnings Reports - Campbell's Company (CPB) reported fiscal Q3 earnings of 73 cents per share, exceeding expectations by +12% but slightly below the previous year's quarter [7][8] - Revenues for Campbell's reached $2.48 billion, surpassing expectations by +1.55% and showing growth from $2.37 billion year-over-year [8] Economic Indicators - The S&P Manufacturing PMI is expected to remain above the key 50-level at +52.3, while ISM Manufacturing is projected to decrease to +48.5% [9] - Construction Spending for April is anticipated to show a positive change of +0.2% after a -0.5% decline in March [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the impact of China's mixed macroeconomic outlook, escalating trade tensions with the U.S., and intensifying competition on consumer-facing Chinese stocks, leading to volatility in the market [1] - Recent earnings results from industry giants, particularly Alibaba Group, reflect the challenges faced by the sector amid these macroeconomic conditions [1]