Core Viewpoint - Starbucks has faced stagnant stock returns over the past five years, but some investors are optimistic about a turnaround under new CEO Brian Niccol, who has a strong operational background [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Starbucks reported a 2% year-over-year increase in net revenue but a concerning 50% drop in earnings per share (EPS), which Niccol acknowledged as disappointing [3][8]. - The current valuation of Starbucks stock is approximately 2.5 times trailing sales, close to its lowest level in over a decade, indicating that the market has already discounted the stock due to its recent performance [8][10]. Turnaround Plan - Niccol's turnaround plan for Starbucks focuses on providing fast and friendly service in an inviting atmosphere, which is seen as achievable and necessary for improving customer experience [4][6]. - The plan includes scrapping expensive real estate projects inherited from previous management and seeking more cost-effective ways to enhance coffeehouse operations [7]. Management and Execution - Niccol's track record in the restaurant industry is viewed positively, and there is cautious optimism about his ability to drive profitable growth compared to the previous management team [12]. - Recent tests of a new ordering system have shown promising results, with average wait times decreasing by about two minutes, suggesting that operational improvements may be underway [13]. Future Outlook - Starbucks aims to open thousands of new locations in the long term and believes profit margins will improve, which could lead to increased shareholder value [14].

Core Viewpoint - Dollar General has faced significant challenges in recent years, losing market share to Walmart and experiencing a decline in stock value, but there are signs of potential recovery as the company implements a turnaround plan and provides optimistic long-term guidance [1][2][10] Financial Performance - In 2024, Dollar General's operating income fell by 30% to $1.7 billion due to economic challenges, increased markdowns, and an unfavorable sales mix [2] - The company's fourth-quarter earnings report showed a significant miss on bottom-line estimates, with EPS guidance below consensus, yet the stock rose by 7% following the report due to growth expectations [2][3] Turnaround Strategy - Dollar General has initiated a "Back to Basics" plan focusing on improving stock availability, staffing checkout areas, and streamlining the supply chain by closing temporary storage facilities [4] - The company plans to close 96 Dollar General stores and 45 Popshelf stores, incurring a charge of $232 million, but aims to enhance profitability by closing underperforming locations while aggressively opening new stores [5][6] Future Growth Projections - Dollar General intends to open 575 new stores in the U.S. and 15 in Mexico in 2025, alongside remodeling 4,250 stores, including 2,250 under the Project Elevate program [6][7] - The company projects same-store sales growth of 2% to 3% annually over the next five years and aims for a 10% annual increase in EPS starting next year, with a target adjusted operating margin of 6% to 7% by 2028 to 2029 [7] Market Position - Dollar General is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16, which is a substantial discount compared to the S&P 500, indicating potential for stock appreciation if growth targets are met [8] - The company remains the largest retail banner in the U.S. with over 20,000 stores, demonstrating its dominance in the small-footprint discount retail sector [9] Investor Sentiment - Despite the challenges in the macroeconomic environment, Dollar General's long-term growth track record and focus on essential goods position it as a potential market leader over the next five years [9][10]