June 9, 2025 09:08 AM GMT S. Korea Technology | Asia Pacific M Idea Investor Presentation: China AI and Memory Outlook Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Shawn Kim Equity Analyst Shawn.Kim@morganstanley.com +852 3963-1005 S. Korea Technology Asia Pacific Industry View Cautious Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Researc ...

As a tech-focused industry Research Analyst, I aim to provide differentiated insights, whether it is for investing, trading, or informational reasons. For this purpose, I am not a classical equity researcher from the financial sector, but, I come from the IT world as the Director of Keylogin InfoTech and my insights are based on my own experience investing for 25 years.Also, my research is often backed by analytics and I make frequent use of charts to support my position.Based on losses during the GFC, I am ...

(*seasonally adjusted by GS) Main points: 1. China's headline CPI inflation was unchanged at -0.1% yoy in May, as the decline in goods prices was offset by higher services prices (Exhibit 1). In month-on-month terms, headline CPI fell to +0.5% (annualized, seasonally adjusted) in May (vs. +0.8% mom s.a. ann in April). 2. In year-over-year terms, food inflation edged down to -0.4% yoy in May from -0.2% yoy in April. This is primarily due to lower prices of fresh vegetables (Exhibit 2). Among major food items ...

Group 1 - Marubeni has experienced a significant rally of over 35% since March 2023 [1] Group 2 - The analyst has a background in IT and focuses on providing differentiated insights for investing and trading [2] - The analyst emphasizes a moderate approach to investment, particularly after experiencing losses during the Global Financial Crisis [2] - The analyst covers various themes including automated supply chains, Generative AI, and the deflationary nature of software [2]

[Music] Greetings everyone. It is uh in the know day as well employment Friday uh and uh we have a lot to discuss as usual we'll we'll go through fiscal policy monetary policy economic indicators market indicators and uh we'll talk a little bit about uh some real breakthroughs in terms of uh the market recognizing how much innovation is taking place. Um so uh starting w with fiscal policy and I'll I'll go through and and just uh make a few observations before we flip to charts.So um on fiscal policy, well t ...

Company and Industry Summary Company Overview - The company reported net sales of **$20.97 billion** for the month, representing an increase of **6.8%** from **$19.64 billion** in the same period last year [3] Sales Performance - Comparable sales results for the month were as follows: - **U.S.**: **4.1%** - **Canada**: **3.3%** - **Other International**: **6.6%** - **Total Company**: **4.3%** - **E-commerce**: **11.6%** [3] - When excluding impacts from changes in gasoline prices and foreign exchange, comparable sales were: - **U.S.**: **5.5%** - **Canada**: **6.3%** - **Other International**: **8.4%** - **Total Company**: **6%** - **E-commerce**: **12%** [4] Traffic and Transaction Insights - Comparable traffic or frequency increased by **3.4%** worldwide and **2.8%** in the U.S. [4] - The average worldwide selling price per gallon of gas decreased by approximately **10.4%** year-over-year [5] - Average transaction value increased by **0.9%**, and when excluding gas deflation and foreign exchange, it was up **2.5%** [5] Regional Performance - Strongest comparable sales in the U.S. were observed in the **Northwest**, **Midwest**, and **Los Angeles** regions [6] - Internationally, the best results were in **Mexico**, **Taiwan**, and **Korea** [6] Merchandising Highlights - Foods and sundries showed positive mid to high single-digit growth, with strong performance in: - **Cooler** - **Candy** - **Frozen Foods** - Fresh foods increased by high single digits, particularly in: - **Meat** - **Bakery** - Non-foods also performed well with mid single-digit growth, especially in: - **Jewelry** - **Majors** - **Gift Cards** - Ancillary business sales declined by low to mid single digits, while pharmacy, optical, and hearing aid departments were top performers [7][8] Challenges and Risks - The negative impact of foreign currencies on total and comparable sales was approximately: - **Canada**: **-1.6%** - **Other International**: **-1.0%** - **Total Company**: **-0.4%** [5] - Gas price deflation negatively impacted total reported comparable sales by approximately **-1.3%** [5] - The negative impact of cannibalization was approximately **-70 basis points** for the company in May [6] Future Outlook - The upcoming June reporting period will include five weeks, starting from June 2 and ending July 6, compared to the previous year's five weeks from June 3 to July 7 [8]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bearish outlook for the aluminium market, with expectations of a surplus extending through 2027, leading to lower price forecasts [8][12][20]. Core Insights - The global aluminium demand forecast for 2025 has been raised from 1.1% y/y to 1.8% y/y due to less severe impacts from the trade war, but forecasts for 2026 and 2027 remain largely unchanged [3][8]. - Indonesian aluminium production is expected to grow faster than previously anticipated, contributing to a market surplus of 1 million tonnes in 2026, the largest since 2020 [8][12][13]. - Cost deflation from lower alumina and energy prices is expected to exert downward pressure on aluminium prices, with forecasts indicating a decline to $2,100/t in early 2026 [8][27][28]. Summary by Sections Demand Forecast - The report has adjusted the global aluminium demand forecast for 2026 and 2027 downwards due to reduced solar demand, resulting in a decrease of 0.3/0.6% in total aluminium demand [3][20]. - The solar sector's demand for aluminium is expected to decline significantly due to new policies affecting solar installations in China [20][24]. Supply Outlook - The supply forecast for Indonesia has been upgraded, with three new smelters expected to be operational by mid-2026, increasing the supply forecast by 750/550kt in 2026/2027 [12][13][14]. - Indonesia is projected to account for 9% of ex-China aluminium production by 2030, up from 2% in 2024 [13]. Price Forecast - The aluminium price is expected to fall to a low of $2,100/t in early 2026, with a trading range of $2,150-2,550/t anticipated in subsequent years [8][27]. - Average price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been lowered to $2,230/t and $2,500/t, respectively, reflecting a more bearish outlook [8][35].

folks are underestimating and underrealizing the benefits at this stage of what's going to come out of the AI revolution and how it's ultimately going to benefit people's availability of products, cost of goods, access to things. So the counterbalancing force Jcal is deflationary which is let's assume that the cost of everything comes down by half. That's a huge relief on people's need to work 60 hours a week. Suddenly you only need to work 30 hours a week and you can have the same lifestyle or perhaps even ...

近日，有不少业内人士预测，国内将迎来新一轮通胀周期。原因是，我国一季度的M2规模达到了326.06万亿元，是GDP2倍，未来物价大幅上涨乃是大概率 的事情。但现实情况是，新一轮通胀并没有发生，而通缩周期却已经到来。数据显示，4月份CPI同比上涨0.3%。这主要是由于超发的货币在金融体系内空 转，并没有流入商品市场。 而面对这一轮通缩的经济形势，有业内人士预测，从2025年6月起，中国或将迎来5大降价潮。让我们一起来了解一下： 第三，汽车价格仍会下降 现在国内汽车市场出现了降价潮，像20-30万的中档车降价1.5万-2万元。而进口高档汽车最高降价在10万元。预计下半年，各类品牌的汽车价格仍有下降空 间。而导致汽车价格出现下跌的原因是： 第一，房价还会继续下跌 从2022年开始，国内各地房价就进入到下跌的趋势之中。先是天津、石家庄、涿州等二三线城市房价下跌。在进入到2023年之后，深圳、广州、上海等一线 城市的房价也出现明显调整。 以上海为例，2021年下半年市中心平均房价9.5万/平米，现在已经跌到6.5万/平米。房价跌幅超30%。预计2025年下半年，国内各地房价会出现分化，像之前 跌幅较大的二三线城市下跌幅 ...

May 20, 2025 06:44 PM GMT China Economics Mid-Year Outlook Lingering Deflation Despite Tariff Detente We revise our 2025 GDP forecast upward by 30 bps to 4.5% due to reduced tariff headwinds. But deflation persists, as structural issues (housing, consumption) continue to exert downward pressure on prices. We expect lighter, delayed stimulus focused on infrastructure. Milder growth slowdown amid lower tariffs: 2025/26 GDP growth raised to 4.5%/4.2% YoY (vs. 4.2%/4.0%Y previously). We now see GDP YoY stabiliz ...