US-China Trade Relations & Tariffs - The market reacted sharply to President Trump's threat of massive new tariffs on China, with the S&P 500 down approximately 2% and the tech sector experiencing a more significant decline [4] - The expert suggests that the tariff issue is not solvable by monetary policy and recommends the Fed to ignore it [5] - China's cut in access to rare earths is viewed as a reason for potential retaliation from the US [4] Monetary Policy & Inflation - The expert believes that the Fed should hold steady and not continue rate cuts, as cutting rates would validate passing on price increases and potentially fuel inflation [8][9] - The expert suggests that the Fed signaling it does not want to validate price increases would put a lid on inflation [8] Labor Market Analysis - The labor market is described as soft but not significantly different from what is expected in an extended expansion [10] - Wages for lower-end workers are performing well, while supervisory workers have experienced lower pay increases [10][11] - The Atlanta Fed wage tracker signals no serious problems in the labor market [11] Personal Considerations - The individual withdrew his name from consideration for a government position due to personal considerations, including family involvement and satisfaction with his current job [1][2][3] - The expert finds government service to be more painful and hostile than in the past [2]

Monetary Policy Stance - The speaker believes that cutting rates is still necessary, but caution is warranted due to conflicting signals from the labor market and GDP growth [1] - The market has already priced in sequential rate cuts through the end of the year, which the speaker considers cautious enough if implemented in quarter-point increments [3] - A more aggressive rate cut, such as 75 basis points, carries a higher risk if the economic outlook is misjudged [4] - Gradual adjustments of 25 basis points allow for flexibility as new data becomes available [4] Economic Indicators - The labor market is weak, but GDP growth is strong, with forecasts near 4% [1] - Negative job growth is inconsistent with 4% GDP growth, suggesting an imbalance that needs to be resolved [1] - The labor market and GDP growth must align, either through a labor market rebound or a GDP growth slowdown [2] Policy Implications - If the labor market rebounds and growth remains strong, there is less need for rate cuts [2] - If GDP growth slows down, the labor market situation necessitates further rate cuts [2] - Policy decisions should be made cautiously to avoid significant errors in either direction [3]

🇺🇸 TODAY: Fed Chair Powell speaks at 8:30 AM ET at the Community Bank Conference.Will he mention rate cuts? https://t.co/SAburEeSdp ...

Well, with us now is Dan Niles, founder and portfolio manager at Niles Investment Management. Dan, it's great to have you on the show. Welcome.Thank you. We'll start right there. What do you think of this.Well, you have to separate it into pieces. So, if you're asking, what do I think about the stocks of the AI companies. I think they're going to go up a lot for one simple reason.The Fed's cutting rates after being on hold for 9 months. You're going to get another probably three cuts between now and January ...

💥BREAKING:🇺🇸 Fed Governor Stephen Miran calls for aggressive rate cuts of up to 50bps. https://t.co/U0pW5hYLrq ...

REMINDER:Fed's Bowman says he sees 3 rate cuts in 2025!BULLISH FOR MARKETS! https://t.co/fNxUNPrpic ...

Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee suggests officials should proceed carefully with rate cuts [1] - The Federal Reserve faces pressure regarding both inflation and employment goals [1]

💥BREAKING:Fed's Bowman says he sees 3 rate cuts in 2025!THIS IS BULLISH. https://t.co/Z3u4FM6toi ...

Monetary Policy - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will approach additional rate cuts very cautiously [1] - Inflation risks remain more prominent than the threat of higher unemployment [1]

Paul McCauley, former chief economist at PIMCO and an adjunct professor at Georgetown University's Mcdana School of Business joins us now. Paul, it's great to get your take on this. I mean, we have this data vacuum ahead of us most likely.There has actually been some balanced, maybe even hawkish Fed speak since the last Fed decision. Uh, and yet you think that the path is clearer toward further rate cuts. Why is that.Yeah, I uh don't think the shutdown is a good thing from the standpoint of democracy. It's ...