India’s busy local-currency rupee bond market is poised to slow after the country’s central bank hinted room for further rate cuts could be limited https://t.co/lgIpzqTyo9 ...

REMINDER:🇺🇸 FED CHAIR JEROME POWELL WILL SPEAK TODAY AT 9:30 AM ET.WILL HE HINT ABOUT ANY RATE CUTS? https://t.co/tTlaFWQLi4 ...

And Ryan, I was struck. Goldman just tweaked their forecast for uh you know, their Fed forecast for for rate cuts. Now they think we could get one in September because the inflation numbers on from tariff have been less uh dramatic than they expected.So all of a sudden, you throw in there the possibility of a near-term rate cut. I have to imagine that would contribute to a positive outlook on equities. Kelly, you're right.Thanks for having me back and happy Monday, everybody, and congrats on number six. Uh, ...

🇺🇲FED CHAIR POWELL SAYS THE UPCOMING TRADE DEALS MAY ALLOW FOR RATE CUTS.RATE CUTS ARE COMING IN JULY 🚀 https://t.co/nlqbQQbMF9 ...

Is the pain trade now to the up or to the downside. I think the tendency is definitely up that the trend is up. I mean, the you know, if the ceasefire holds, it looks good now.That's a that's a tremendous plus for the markets. I think, you know, all time highs for the S&P are virtually a foregone conclusion now and and further highs after after that. I mean, Powell was flexible.Clearly, Congress wants interest rates to go down and a number of Fed officials do. That could be a positive. I think they should g ...

For more on Powell's testimony and how the Middle East conflict uh factors into the Fed's thinking, let's bring in Fed Watch Advisors founder Ben Emmens. Ben, great to see you. Um I first want to ask you about bond yields being at 4.29% on the 10-year and and I'm just wondering because we saw this is a day when the markets rallied.We saw oil come off precipitously. All the risk premium got taken out of the oil market at this point and we didn't have much of a move in the bond market. So at this point is it ...

Roger Ferguson, Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman and CNBC contributor, says Powell will highlight uncertainty. CEOs remain cautious, with many expecting mild recession; Fed remains divided on timing of rate cuts amid global risks. ...

Market Trends & Geopolitical Impact - The market initially reacted negatively to the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, with oil prices surging, but then reversed as Iran's response appeared limited, leading to a drop in oil prices and a bullish market sentiment [1][3][10][27] - Iran's potential closure of the Straits of Hormuz is unlikely due to their own reliance on it for 170万 barrels per day of exports [1][4] - US ethane exports to China are being used as a bargaining chip in the rare earth minerals debate, causing uncertainty for US energy exporters [3][4][5] Investment Opportunities & Company Performance - Darden Restaurants presents a compelling investment opportunity due to strong performance, especially at Olive Garden and Longhorn Steakhouse, a $1 billion buyback program, and a 71% dividend increase [11][12][13][14] - Darden's blended same store sales were up 46%, exceeding Wall Street's expectation of 35% [13] - Longhorn Steakhouse surpassed $3 billion in annual revenue for the first time in fiscal year 2025 [18] - Arlo Technologies' subscription business is experiencing insane growth, with subscriber count breaking through 5 million users and aiming for 10 million by 2030 [40][41] - Arlo Technologies' gross margin expanded by 600 basis points year-over-year, reaching 83% [43] Individual Stock Analysis & Recommendations - Circle Internet Group: Sell 50% of your position tomorrow morning and let the rest run [3][33] - Palantir: Jim Kramer said at 50, it's going to 100, at 100, it's going to 200 [3] - Haiko: Take some off tomorrow just because you're going to be a good soldier, but I like the stock [3] - Arlo Technologies: Put on a small position here, but you got to wait for a buyback before you buy more [52]

Joining us now to talk about it all, Loretta Mester, former Cleveland Fed president, now adjunct professor of finance at the University of Wharton, also a CNBC contra contributor. And we are darn glad that you are here, Loretta. If you were still on the Fed, what would your decision and expectation for rate cuts be? Yeah, I would have probably already been at one cut as opposed to two. So I may not have changed my SEP. Remember the SEP, the one that we had before was in March and that was before the April 2 ...

Market Sentiment & Economic Outlook - The market is facing a battle between resilience and complacency as the second quarter ends [1] - Some believe the market is resilient and will continue to rise towards all-time highs [2] - Concerns exist about the removal of buybacks and the end of the 90-day tariff extension [3] - The market may react negatively if the dot plot indicates only one rate cut, while two cuts may already be priced in [12] - The market has pure momentum in basically every sector, with strong appetite for IPOs until the second quarter earnings reports [17][18] Monetary Policy & Federal Reserve - The FOMC meeting is anticipated with uncertainty, especially regarding Chairman Powell's stance [3][4] - Some argue that recent weak data points, such as the largest drop in retail sales since March 2023 and poor home builder sentiment, justify a dovish stance [5] - Michigan consumer one-year inflation expectations have decreased from 73% to 53%, which the Fed may consider significant [6][7] - Uncertainty regarding tariffs and the Middle East conflict may prevent the Fed from adopting a dovish position [8][9] - The Fed's own measure of uncertainty is near pandemic and financial crisis levels, suggesting caution [22][23] - The core PCE went up by 03%, Real GDP went down by 04%, and the funds rate kept unchanged at 39% [21][22] Inflation & Tariffs - Looming tariffs and the conflict in the Middle East create uncertainty regarding future oil prices [8] - Inflation readings have been relatively good recently [8] - Inventories not subject to tariffs are dwindling, potentially leading to higher prices [16] - One company's aluminum costs, previously sourced from China, increased by 50%, leading them to source from the US, but costs are still up 35% year-over-year [14]