We're back now on closing bell. Joining me now is Alian's chief economic adviser, Muhammad Alian. It's good to see you and thank you so much for being with us.Muhammad, how should our investing audience be thinking about this. Well, first, as you said, Scott, and thanks for having me. Lots of ifs.Having said that, I think there's four clear things in my mind in terms of the economic effects. One, this will accelerate the ongoing slowing of the global economy. Two, it will limit policy flexibility even more, ...

one year inflation drops from 66 down to 51. That's a pretty big drop. Joining us this morning, Allianz chief economic adviser Mohamed El-Erian is with us Mohamed.It's a treat for us to be able to get your take on on the news of the day. I did read this morning that you feel that this this news out of the Middle East is net net maybe Stagflationary does that explain some of the action in treasuries. >> It is Stagflationary. The question is how stagflationary is it.And that's a function of what you just talk ...

Does President Trump have Jay Powell to thank for that. Look, you know, it's good to see you. Thanks for having me back.You know, look, I think that I think the president has delivered below expectation inflation for four months in a row and every month he's in office. And I think that says something about, you know, about our policies. Our policies push the supply side of the economy out and in doing so, help firms produce more with less.So, you know, I think inflation has been has been very successfully c ...

You said that if the Fed were to cut rates, that might cause a sell off in 30 year Treasuries. It's already happening. They started cutting rates in September of of of 2023, and the long bond has gone up in yield significantly since then, 100 basis points.Do you think that will happen again. Why not. I mean, that's it's a paradigm shift.We've we have a tremendous paradigm shift that's going on where money is not coming into the United States, where the long bond is not a flight to quality asset. Gold sudden ...

In the last of 15 years, there's been a number of corrections on the 500 and in every single one of them. When the S&P goes down more than 10%, the dollar index, the trade weighted dollar index goes up. This time.The dollar went down when the S&P 500 went down almost 20%. That's that's strange. Things are behaving differently.Usually when the Fed starts cutting interest rates, rates across the yield curve go down. The ten year Treasury almost always goes up immediately following the first Fed rate rate cut, ...