受美元走软提振，6月30日国际金价探底回升，尾盘重上3300美元／盎司关口。 当天纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年8月黄金期价收盘上涨28.9美元，收于每盎司 3315美元，涨幅为0.88%。 早盘电子交易时段，金价一度触及3250.5美元的逾一个月低点。 盘面上看，尽管近期地缘和贸易局势缓和削弱了黄金的避险需求，但从6月整体表现来看，纽约金价仍 较5月末收盘价上涨了0.06%，为连续第六个月收涨，尽管涨幅显著收窄。 在部分分析机构看来，央行购金需求、地缘政治不确定性和货币政策宽松，决定了金价的上行态势仍将 延续。但短期内，市场仍在关注本周美国非农就业数据对美联储降息的指引。 消息面上，美国总统特朗普再度对美联储"发难"。当地时间6月30日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体发文 表示，"'太迟先生'美联储主席鲍威尔和整个委员会都应该为没有降息感到羞耻。"特朗普先前因美联储 未按自己要求降息而频繁经由社交媒体炮轰鲍威尔，一度威胁要解除其职务。 当天纽约市场成交最活跃的9月白银期货上涨16.5美分，报每盎司36.330美元，涨幅为0.46%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 分析认为，尽管当天美股三大股指集体走高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has adjusted its monetary policy strategy to enhance communication in an increasingly unpredictable world, focusing on inflation and economic risks [1][2] Group 1: Strategy Adjustment - The ECB confirmed a symmetrical approach to maintain price growth at the target level in the medium term, indicating that significant and sustained deviations in either direction will prompt "appropriate and forceful or persistent policy responses" [1] - This adjustment marks a departure from the previous strategy, which emphasized "particularly forceful or sustained" actions when the economy was "close to the lower bound" to avoid entrenched low inflation [1] Group 2: Context and Rationale - The strategy adjustment was announced during the ECB's annual forum in Sintra, Portugal, in response to unprecedented inflation spikes in 2021 and 2022, which caught the ECB off guard and led to criticism regarding delayed interest rate hikes [1] - The evaluation aimed to prepare for a more frequent and disruptive economic shock environment due to factors like de-globalization, decarbonization, and demographic changes [1] Group 3: Forward-Looking Approach - ECB President Lagarde acknowledged that the previous assessment lacked foresight and was overly influenced by past experiences [2] - She emphasized that scenario analysis could have provided insights into the wide range of potential inflation outcomes during the rapid economic reopening in 2021, thereby reducing the risk of conveying false certainty to the public [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is facing increasing volatility in inflation, which is influenced by global economic uncertainties and supply shocks [1] Group 1: Inflation Concerns - ECB President Lagarde highlighted that uncertainty will continue to be a major characteristic of the global economy, potentially leading to more unstable inflation [1] - The ECB concluded that "appropriate and forceful or persistent" policy actions are necessary to ensure that price growth returns to the target level of 2% [1] - Lagarde acknowledged that while the ECB expects inflation rates to remain around this target in the coming years, there are risks due to changes in corporate pricing behavior [1] Group 2: Global Economic Environment - The global environment has fundamentally changed in the years following the pandemic, leading to a new era characterized by uncertainty and supply shocks [1] - Companies are adapting their pricing strategies more rapidly in response to these changes, contributing to inflation instability [1] - Lagarde emphasized that the future world is likely to be more uncertain, which may exacerbate inflation volatility [1]

美联储博斯蒂克：前景的不确定性不仅仅是由贸易政策驱动的。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The future outlook of the philatelic and numismatic market is clouded by the ongoing trade war, leading to increased caution among investors and a tendency to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach. Group 1: Impact of Trade War - The trade war has created significant tension in capital flow, resulting in a subdued performance of the philatelic market amidst stock market volatility and international economic uncertainty [1][4]. - The absence of a gift-giving cycle means the market must rely solely on long-term demand for collection and investment [3]. - The scarcity of funds has left the market lifeless, with a clear divide emerging between high-quality collectibles and those facing greater downward pressure [4]. Group 2: Market Pricing Dynamics - In the philatelic market, prices are influenced by three main factors: usage price, investment price, and collectible price [5]. - Usage prices remain relatively stable due to their face value, while investment prices are significantly affected by the economic environment and consumer confidence [6][7]. - The ongoing trade war has led to a decrease in household income, which in turn suppresses investment demand and diminishes the investment value of certain collectibles [8]. Group 3: Investor Strategies - Despite the uncertainties in the current market, opportunities still exist, emphasizing the need for investors to differentiate between collecting and investing [11][12]. - Collectors should focus on selecting varieties with long-term appreciation potential, while investors may prioritize short-term gains and closely monitor market trends [13][14]. - The strategies for collectors and investors differ significantly, with collecting being a long-term endeavor and investing being more about seizing trends [15]. Group 4: Conclusion - The trade war's impact on the philatelic market is profound, leading to evolving investor sentiments. Maintaining a calm and rational approach is essential for navigating this uncertain environment [16].

欧洲央行行长拉加德：我们所面临的环境将继续高度不确定，甚至可能变得更加动荡。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the financial futures and options market, both stock index futures and treasury bond futures are expected to be strong in the short and medium - term. In the commodity futures and options market, different metals and energy materials, as well as agricultural products, have their own unique supply - demand and price trends [1][2][4]. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures (IF, IH, IC, IM) - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [1] - **Medium - term view**: Bullish [1] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short MO2507 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put options and IM2507 long positions [1] - **Core logic**: Positive sentiment in the equity market due to Sino - US communication and policy support, and the potential rise of the science and technology sector [1] Treasury Bond Futures (TS, TF, T, TL) - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [2] - **Medium - term view**: Bullish [2] - **Reference strategy**: Hold T2509 or TL2509 long positions [3] - **Core logic**: Weak domestic fundamentals strengthen policy expectations, and the central bank's continued net investment affects the capital market [3] Commodity Futures and Options Metal and New Energy Materials - **Copper** - **Day - to - day view**: Price range from 79,200 to 81,000 [4] - **Medium - term view**: Price range from 60,000 to 90,000 [4] - **Reference strategy**: Adopt an oscillating and slightly upward trading idea, buy call options [4] - **Core logic**: The "Big and Beautiful" bill in the US, supply shortages, and changes in international demand and inventory levels affect copper prices [4] - **Industrial Silicon** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 8,000 to 8,100 [5] - **Medium - term view**: Face downward pressure, price range from 7,000 to 9,000 [5] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short SI2508 - C - 9000 until expiration, short futures on rallies [5] - **Core logic**: Decreased supply and demand, and high inventory levels [5] - **Polysilicon** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 33,000 to 35,000 [7] - **Medium - term view**: Trade at a low level, price range from 28,000 to 38,000 [7] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short PS2508 - C - 45000 until expiration [7] - **Core logic**: Decreased supply and demand, and high inventory levels [7] - **Aluminum** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 20,400 to 20,700 [9] - **Medium - term view**: Trade at a high level, price range from 19,200 to 21,000 [9] - **Reference strategy**: Sell AL2508 - P - 19300 [9] - **Core logic**: Limited supply increase, low inventory, good performance in the automotive market, and the overall rise of non - ferrous metals [9] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 63,000 to 65,000 [11] - **Medium - term view**: Cost support weakens, prices decline steadily, price range from 56,000 to 68,000 [11] - **Reference strategy**: Short futures on rallies, sell LC2508 - C - 83000 [11] - **Core logic**: Low spot prices, large supply, and high inventory levels [11] Black and Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Day - to - day view**: Downward pressure weakens [14] - **Medium - term view**: Stop falling and stabilize [14] - **Reference strategy**: Exit the strategy of selling call options and buying put options on RB2510, sell out - of - the - money put options on rebar RB2510 [14] - **Core logic**: Potential relief of raw material inventory pressure and changes in supply and demand [14] Livestock, Poultry, and Soft Commodities - **Hogs** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias [17] - **Medium - term view**: Rebound temporarily and then maintain a weak trend [17] - **Reference strategy**: Short on rallies [17] - **Core logic**: Changes in supply and demand, with supply remaining abundant and demand weak [17] - **Sugar** - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate weakly [19] - **Medium - term view**: Rise first and then fall [19] - **Reference strategy**: Short on rallies [19] - **Core logic**: Global supply surplus expectations and domestic supply - demand and import situations [19] - **Protein Meal** - **Day - to - day view**: Soybean meal 2509 oscillates in the range of [2,900, 3,000] [22] - **Medium - term view**: Soybean meal 2509 builds a bottom in the range of [2,900, 3,100] [22] - **Reference strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options on soybean meal 2508 - P - 2850 [22] - **Core logic**: Uncertainty in the weather of US soybean and Canadian rapeseed growing areas, and changes in international and domestic soybean and rapeseed markets [22] Energy and Chemicals - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)** - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate within a range [25] - **Medium - term view**: Face downward pressure [25] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short out - of - the - money call options on PG2508 [25] - **Core logic**: Changes in supply, demand, and cost factors [25] - **PVC** - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [28] - **Medium - term view**: Limited upside potential [28] - **Reference strategy**: Continue to hold the strategy of selling out - of - the - money call options on PVC [28] - **Core logic**: Changes in cost, supply, demand, and inventory levels [28]

欧洲央行副行长金多斯：我们正面临着残酷的不确定性。 ...

欧洲央行副行长金多斯：由于不确定性，我们必须保留所有利率选择。 ...

"当前正处于一个充满挑战的时期，这一环境促使首席财务官的决策与响应速度发生转变，因当下的每 个选择都可能深远影响企业长期发展。"Teneo投资者关系咨询联席主管Christian Buss表示，其调研发 现，包括关税在内的多重因素正导致业务运营的重大变化。 近日，全球CEO咨询公司Teneo发布《2025全球首席财务官及投资者展望》调研报告（下称"报告"）， 报告显示，投资者和来自美国的CFO（首席财务官）对全球经济前景更为乐观，约78%的受访投资人预 计今年下半年经济状况将改善。相较之下，CFO们在应对人工智能、关税及地缘政治等多重挑战时，态 度则更为审慎。 该报告还显示，超半数CFO及近四成投资者认为市场波动是交易并购的主要障碍，其他的主要障碍包括 地缘政治不确定性、高融资成本及高质量收购对象的缺乏，在此背景下，有71%的受访CFO正积极调整 其并购策略。其中，颠覆性科技尤其是人工智能（AI）的崛起，被42%的受访者视为并购活动的主要催 化剂及驱动因素，此外销售、一般及行政支出和资本支出的增加，被认为是并购活动的主要驱动力。 为应对新经济形势，多数受访CFO表示正在积极推动多项关键举措，包括重塑供应链，调 ...